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Sunday, 2 August 2020

3:15 Haydock Racing Tips (3rd August)


A pity there's only 7 runners for this class 2 dash, I would look to lay (*Aplomb) if the going is good to firm, I could easily have added Tanasoq as it races as though it's better over a longer trip but it could run on into a place if capable of reproducing its best 2018 time, I think that Princes Des Sables looks the most likely pacesetter and as it's my 2nd top-rated it could do enough to make the frame but I will be backing MOUNTAIN PEAK 3/1 hoping it can pick up the leader inside the final furlong and it has good trainer 26% and jockey 25% stats making me think they are expecting the win here. 


Mountain Peak 3/1 1st (+3pts)

Total: +3pts


This is a race which I should leave well alone as there's a couple fo 3yo’s and other lightly raced sorts but I found 2 with ratings on my figures a few spots better than the rest that had got recorded times and one that could lead is my 3rd top-rated so Kraka could be dangerous with an easy lead and could make the frame, Delegate The Lady is my joint top rated but on the SL tissue prices, they make it the favourite so it won't be any value to take a risk on but RINTY MAGINTY 11/1 (EW) is forecast to be a double-figure price and if so might be worth risking with a small each-way punt. 



For a class 5 race, this looks a very nice affair, there's 3 known front-running types so it should be true run but I think they will set the race up for something coming from off the pace, of the early types Belated Breath may do best of them and could hold on for a place, (A Sure Welcome) is capable of doing a fast time but usually in a lower class race and maybe worth laying if a single figure price, both Total Commitment and Magical Ride are capable of running big races but I will be siding with ARCANADA 4/1 who likes to sit just behind the pace and then finish strongly at the business end and it good trainer/jockey stats which is always a positive. 

Arcanada 5/1 6th (-1pt)

Lay bet: A Sure Welcome +1pt

Total: 0pts


Only 6 runners but a very competitive affair, if Laith Alareen gets to the front it could prove hard to catch for most of the runners if reproducing its best rating from Newmarket in 2019 but the bottom weight EXCELLENT GEORGE 9/1 has a time from Windsor in 2019 that makes it my top-rated and likes a fast pace to aim at so this race could be run to suit it and will be carrying my money. 



Another 6 runner race with Just Glamorous known as a frontrunner so could have an easy lead but will do very well to pinch this race from the front, on the tissue prices they make the 3yo (Wonderwork) the 11/8 favourite but I'm not convinced it will like the going if it's good to firm so I would lay it at such a short price, I expect Daschas to run a decent race and it will be trying to stay on at the distance but maybe too late so I will be backing SPOOF 7/1 and this bottom weight is my top rated and the trainer does ok at this course.

Spoof 7/1 5th (-1pt)

Lay bet: Wonderwork -3.5pts

Total: -4.5pts

Total on the day: -1.5pts

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