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Showing posts with label Spoof. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Spoof. Show all posts

Sunday, 6 June 2021

3:15 Lingfield Racing Tips (7th June)

LINGFIELD 3.15 

Only 7 runners but luckily there is a known front runner in Spurofthemoment who is my 2nd top rated on 2020/21 times and also 2nd top on overall figures so could go well from the front and if allowed an easy lead it could even win the race and it has good trainer/jockey stats, I will look to lay Kingholm 7/2 who maybe better over a shorter trip and also may not, Recall The Show is my top rated on just 2021 times and that's good enough for 3rd top spot overall but I will be siding with STRONG POWER 15/2 who is my 2nd top rated on just 2021 times but its best time from 2020 recorded at Leicester and the trainer is 5-9 with runners at this course. 

Strong Power 15/2 5th -1pt 

Total -1pt

LINGFIELD 4.45

I will look to lay both Aleef 13/2 and Shecandoo 5/2 in this race as both look as though further would suit them better and also have poor trainer stats and the former also has poor jockey stats, Katherine Place is my 2nd top rated on a time from 2020 over this c/d but its changed trainer since then and this trainer is 0-14 here and also has poor jockey stats of 1-24, Tilsworth Rose is versatile when it comes to its racing tactics and is my 3rd top rated on overall figures but its another one with poor trainer/jockey stats, my money will be riding on HAVEONEYERSELF 9/2 who is my top rated on its best 2020 time and the jockey is 1-3 for the stable and is also the natural front runner in the race so I'm hoping it can lead from start to finish in this race. 

Haveoneyeself 11/2 7th -1pt

Total -1pt

PONTEFRACT 6.15 

I cannot find anything to lay that I think will be a single figure price and the bottom 6 in the handicap all look a bit outclassed in this race, there is 3 possible front runners but both Marve and Gullane One would need to improve on the clock to win this race, Mr Orange is my 3rd top rated and this one is usually held up for a late run, Final Frontiere sits in 2nd top spot and can be held up or track the leaders but I am hoping that my top rated MR WAGYU 4/1 can lead here and if getting to the front it could prove hard to catch. 

Mr Wagyu 4/1 1st +4pts (Betfair SP -) 

Total +4pts

WINDSOR 6.30 

This is a tricky looking class 3 race with a few who I am not really sure what to expect from them but i have positive marks against 4 of the runners names but only A Sure Welcome 9/2 with a negative and one I will look to lay this one at that price, Diligent Lady could be the pacesetter here and could be dangerous if allowed a soft lead and does come out 3rd top on my figures, the top weight Yimou is my 4th top rated with Thegreatestshowman sitting in 2nd top spot on my figures but my money will be riding on *SPOOF 5/1 who obviously is my top rated and has good trainer/jockey stats so I'm expecting it to go well in this race. 

*NR

PONTEFRACT 7.15 

A slightly strange race where one set of times from just one race dominates my speed figures, i will look to lay Obee Jo 9/2 who may need further to show its best form and Arnold 8/1 who hasn't won on turf since 2018 as they both look shorter in price than they should be so value to lay, Auckland Lodge is a possible pacesetter along with one other but would need to improve time wise to win this race, Young Tiger is my 3rd top rated using a time from 2020 at Doncaster but I have DAPPER MAN 8/1 as my 2nd top rated and it won comfortably when it had CANFORD JOY 12/1 behind it but the latter is weighted to reverse the form here but with the former being the other known front runner and could win again if allowed an easy lead but as I said the figures look a little bit strange so I will keep my stakes low.

Canford Joy 25/1 6th -1pt  
Dapper Man 7/1 8th -1pt 

Total -2pts 

Total on the day: 0pts

Sunday, 2 August 2020

3:15 Haydock Racing Tips (3rd August)


HAYDOCK 3.15 

A pity there's only 7 runners for this class 2 dash, I would look to lay (*Aplomb) if the going is good to firm, I could easily have added Tanasoq as it races as though it's better over a longer trip but it could run on into a place if capable of reproducing its best 2018 time, I think that Princes Des Sables looks the most likely pacesetter and as it's my 2nd top-rated it could do enough to make the frame but I will be backing MOUNTAIN PEAK 3/1 hoping it can pick up the leader inside the final furlong and it has good trainer 26% and jockey 25% stats making me think they are expecting the win here. 

*NR

Mountain Peak 3/1 1st (+3pts)

Total: +3pts


YARMOUTH 4.00

This is a race which I should leave well alone as there's a couple fo 3yo’s and other lightly raced sorts but I found 2 with ratings on my figures a few spots better than the rest that had got recorded times and one that could lead is my 3rd top-rated so Kraka could be dangerous with an easy lead and could make the frame, Delegate The Lady is my joint top rated but on the SL tissue prices, they make it the favourite so it won't be any value to take a risk on but RINTY MAGINTY 11/1 (EW) is forecast to be a double-figure price and if so might be worth risking with a small each-way punt. 

Abandoned 

WINDSOR 5.40 

For a class 5 race, this looks a very nice affair, there's 3 known front-running types so it should be true run but I think they will set the race up for something coming from off the pace, of the early types Belated Breath may do best of them and could hold on for a place, (A Sure Welcome) is capable of doing a fast time but usually in a lower class race and maybe worth laying if a single figure price, both Total Commitment and Magical Ride are capable of running big races but I will be siding with ARCANADA 4/1 who likes to sit just behind the pace and then finish strongly at the business end and it good trainer/jockey stats which is always a positive. 

Arcanada 5/1 6th (-1pt)

Lay bet: A Sure Welcome +1pt

Total: 0pts

YARMOUTH 6.00

Only 6 runners but a very competitive affair, if Laith Alareen gets to the front it could prove hard to catch for most of the runners if reproducing its best rating from Newmarket in 2019 but the bottom weight EXCELLENT GEORGE 9/1 has a time from Windsor in 2019 that makes it my top-rated and likes a fast pace to aim at so this race could be run to suit it and will be carrying my money. 

Abandoned 

WINDSOR 6.15 

Another 6 runner race with Just Glamorous known as a frontrunner so could have an easy lead but will do very well to pinch this race from the front, on the tissue prices they make the 3yo (Wonderwork) the 11/8 favourite but I'm not convinced it will like the going if it's good to firm so I would lay it at such a short price, I expect Daschas to run a decent race and it will be trying to stay on at the distance but maybe too late so I will be backing SPOOF 7/1 and this bottom weight is my top rated and the trainer does ok at this course.

Spoof 7/1 5th (-1pt)

Lay bet: Wonderwork -3.5pts

Total: -4.5pts

Total on the day: -1.5pts