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Sunday, 27 September 2020

6:45 Newcastle Racing Tips (28th September)

NEWCASTLE 6.45 

The tissue prices and my speed figures centre around 3 horses, 3rd top on my figures is Arnold 2/1 who’s best time was from 2019 but hasn't run over this c/d this year but has run twice here over 6 furlongs but the jockey, Arcavallo 7/2 is my 2nd top rated but only 2lbs off top spot, it could attempt to lead but the jockeys 1-19 record on this stables older runners is a little off-putting so I will give another chance to LORD OF THE GLEN 11/4 the other known front runner in the field and hopefully this time it can lead all the way. 

Lord Of The Glen 11/4 1st Betfair SP (3.52) 

Total: +2.75pts

NEWCASTLE 8.15 

This certainly isn't a great looking race even for class 6 standards, I can only find 5 runners in the field of 14 that have recorded a speed figure, on my own unique ratings, in 2019 or 2020, Guardia Svizzera who is joint 3rd top overall recorded its best time at Chelmsford so it would need to improve for the switch to this surface, Shortbackansides did its best figure this year at Wolverhampton but is only 5th top rated, Fard is the other joint 3rd top rated on a c/d time from 2019 so could make the frame and will be trying to stay on at the finish as will my 2nd top rated which is Zebulon who won last time out and I expect it will be the favourite in this race, that win came in a slow run affair and may get caught out here with the tactics of STAR CRACKER 18/1 who is the only known front running type in the race, this one is the only one in the field with a rating for 2020 which is admittedly 6lbs below the top weighted Zebulon’s best from 2019 but has an even better time from that year which would see it winning this race comfortably from the front and unless the bookies know something I don't (like being a non-trier) then the price is way way too big in comparison to its chance of winning this race.

Star Cracker 18/1 1st (+18pts) Betfair SP (18.44) 

Total: +18pts

Total on the day +20.75pts 

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