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Tuesday, 6 October 2020

7:00 Kempton Racing Tips & Lay Bets (7th October)

KEMPTON 7.00 

There's only 7 runners but I still cannot narrow it down to one selection, there is a couple of frontrunners so it should be a true run race and if I knew HIGHLAND DRESS 12/1 would like this surface it would be my sole selection hoping it would lead all the way but its best time comes from Southwell, the horse 2nd on my figures is HARRY'S BAR 4/1 who has a fast time from Chelmsford which is the same surface but right-handed while its left-handed here, the one with the top c/d rating is CHIL CHIL 14/1 that time did come from 2019 but its been running well on turf so I expect it reproduce its previous best, there is only 4 lbs between my top 3 so I will look to dutch them and then lay (Glamorous Anna) as I think this one is better over 5 furlongs but it is only a 3yo so could still improve but i think its worth taking the risk if no bigger than a 7/1 shot. 

Harry's Bar 4/1 1st (+4pts) Betfair SP 5)
Chil Chil 14/1 4th (-1pt)
Highland Dress 14/1 5th (-1pt) 

Lay bet: Glamorous Anna +1pt

Total:  +3pts

NEWCASTLE 8.15

A full house of 14 for this race but only Tagovalloa known for pace setting and this ones best time from Kempton would see it just outside my top 4 ratings but if allowed an easy lead it could do enough to make the frame, I have found a couple i will look to lay (*Algaffaal + Highly Sprung) the former may need further and the latter is 0-12 on the AW tracks, on just 2020 c/d times there is only 1 lb between Kind Review and Devils Angel so both could make the frame if reproducing their best, my selection KAPONA 9/1 has the same rating as Kind Review from 2019 and hasn't any recent c/d form to work with but has a time from Chelmsford this year which would see it winning cosily in this race (if only everything went to plan) 

*NR 

Kapona 9/1 6th (-1pt)

Lay bets: Highly Sprung +1pt 

Total: 0pts

KEMPTON 8.30 

Twelve runners with two known front running types, (Gherkin) is only a 3yo but I think it needs further to show its worth and maybe worth laying in this race, another race where I will be dutching 3 runners, MERCERS 7/1 near the bottom of the weights has been running well lately finishing 2nd on its last 2 runs and this is a hold up type, its 3rd top overall but top on just c/d times, ROCKESBURY 3/1 is the one I'm hoping sets the early pace and if getting to the front it should prove hard to catch but its best time does come from Chelmsford and this is its debut over this c/d, the top weight SWANTON BLUE 3/1 also has its best time from Chelmsford which makes it top rated overall so i have to back/dutch the 3 selections to cover all the angles.

Mercers 9/1 5th (-1pt) 
Rocksbury 4/1 7th (-1pt)
Swanton Blue 9/2 8th (-1pt)

Lay bet: Gherkin +1pt

Total: -2pts

Total on the Day: +1pt

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