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Thursday, 12 November 2020

4:15 Wolverhampton Racing Tips & Lay Bets (13th November)

WOLVERHAMPTON 4.15 6f Cl-6 

There is 11 runners and i can find 6 that I could potentially lay, (Ruspers Lad 1 Point + Under Curfew 2 Points + A Go Go 2 Points + Englishman 2 Points + House Deposit 1 Point + Kaafy 1 Point) both Racey Stacey and Excelinthejungle could be hidden dangers being lightly raced sorts, Chocco Star comes out 2nd best if it can repeat its time from Lingfield on this surface, Slowmo is one of two known front runners in the field and is 2nd top on just 2020 c/d times but is pushed down to 3rd spot overall, my top rated horse, TURANGA LEELA, 14/1 hasn't shown much so far this year in its four runs but the switch of jockey hopefully points to connections expecting it get back to winning ways in this race and it could possibly lead all the way here, stall 9 isn't usually ideal but it the make-up of this race it could get to the front early and then be hard to catch and at the price it has to be an each way wager. 

Turanga Leela 14/1 +17.5pts (Betafir SP 11.01)

Lay bets: Rupsers Lad +1pt, Under Curfew 2pts, A Go Go 2pts, Englishman 2pts, House Deposit 1pt, Kaafy +1pt

Total: +26pts 


WOLVERHAMPTON 4.45 Div I 6f Cl-4 

This 1st division is quite hard to analyse with 6 of the 11 runners being 3yo’s despite the one I will be backing is in that age group, there is a few horses that have snippets of form that could see them possibly making the frame, Princes Des Sables, The Blue Bower and Final Frontier. My 3rd top rated overall is Fantastic Flyer but that is using a time from Chelmsford in 2019 hasn't run over this distance on this surface before so not really sure what to expect, top rated is Garth Rockett but once again that time was recorded at Chelmsford and hasn't run on this surface before and the trainers 0-33 record at this course is off-putting, so I will be backing the 2nd top rated overall but top rated over this c/d in the shape of the 3yo LEZARDIEUX 5/1 who is one of only two known front runners in the field and if getting to the front could prove hard to catch, the trainer has a 23% win ratio at this course which I am hoping is a positive pointer to them expecting a big run here. 

Lezardieux 5/1 (-1pt)

Total: -1pt

WOLVERHAMPTON 5.15 Div II

This 2nd division looks a lot more competitive with a couple of front runners amongst them, the bottom weighted Oriental Relation and Ultra Violet could battle for the lead and the latter is a 3yo who could still improve, there is not a lot between my top four ratings, Steelriver sits in 4th top spot and could quite easily make the frame, A Sure Welcome has the plum draw and comes out 3rd top but the jockeys record of 0-7 is a little off-putting, Araifjan is my top rated using a time from Newcastle, but hasn't run over this c/d before, by just 1lb and the apprentices 3lb claim would move it further clear but the jockey is 0-3 on the stables 3yo’s and 0-6 in older race handicaps, I'm not sure if that's enough reason not to back it and I think I will at least have a covering bet on it but i will also be backing WITH CAUTION 22/1 (EW) who likes to track the leaders and then stay on strongly at the finish and from stall 3 it should be able to get a good position from which to attack late on, the trainers 20% in ratio at this course with their older horses also looks a positive pointer the price is better than I thought so I will have an each way punt.

Without Caution 50/1 Unp (-2pts)

Total: -2pts

Total on the day: +23pts

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