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Friday 13 November 2020

3:40 Lingfield Racing Tips (14th November)


What a cracking race, I might not be saying that after the race, there's 12 runners and 2 known front running types and Highland Dress from stall 1 could be the one to set the pace but I doubt it will stay there long enough to win the race unless it gets an uncontested lead and then it might do better than i think, i can only see two horses i would lay but I suspect they will be at least double figure prices, Good Effort, Soldiers Minute, Burmese Waltz, Sunday Star and Jovial could all go well here and i certainly wouldn't put anybody off backing any of them, the horse that is my top rated using a time from Chelmsford is SHIMMERING DAWN 11/1 (EW) it has never run at this course before but its best time at Kempton would also make it my top rated, this one has a trainers win stats of 21% while the jockey is 20% on anything from the stable it goes up to 36% when riding the stables older horses and hopefully from stall four it can get a good early position from which to attack late on and at a double figure price it has to be given as an each way punt. 

Shimmering Sea 16/1 8th (-2pts) 

Total: - 2pts

WOLVERHAMPTON 8.30 5F Class 5 

I can see 3 front running types in this dash and also 3 that I could lay but I think Bahuta Acha might be the only one of the 3 at a single figure price, there are a few that have some piece of form that would make them competitive, Secretfact isn't well drawn in stall 10 and may struggle to get a clear run, Klopp usually stays on strongly at the finish over this distance and could possibly at least make the frame, the 3yo May The Sixth is top rated on just 202 c/d times but that time is quite a few spots below the ratings of others in the race from elsewhere, Shamshon is a possible pacesetter and could go quite well but its best time was from 2018, YOU'RE COOL 16/1 (EW) is my joint top rated and one of the possible front runners so it could prove hard to catch and it would be sole selection if it wasn't for the jockeys 1-29 record on the stables older horses, the bottom weight ROUNDABOUT MAGIC 14/1 (EW) is the other joint top rated admittedly that time was recorded in 2018 but it hasn't run over the c/d since that year, the trainer has an 18% win ratio at this course and the jockey is 2-4 for the stable which makes me think they are expecting a big run in this race both of them are double figure prices so i have to suggest backing them both each way.

You're Cool 16/1 3rd (+2.2pts)
Roundabout Magic 18/1 5th (-2pts)

Total: +0.2pts

Total on the day: -1.8pts

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