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Thursday, 5 November 2020

5:30 Newcastle Racing Tips & Lay Bets (6th November)

NEWCASTLE 5.30 

With 3 known front running sorts in the race it should be a true run affair and one of them Fantasy Keeper is top rated using a time from Kempton and its never run on this surface before the only thing that makes me think this might be its race is because the apprentice jockey is 0-12 for the stable but it is running again quickly so it cannot be ignored and i might have a covering bet on it, I will look to lay (Amaysmont + *Bunnian + Be Proud) if in single figure prices, Gowanbuster could do best of the pacesetters as its 2nd top on just 2020 c/d times but only 5th top on overall figures, Lucky Lodge is another that could go well if reproducing its best but i will be backing KIND REVIEW 9/2 who is my top rated on 2020 c/d times and 2nd top overall but as I've already said the top rated’s best time came on a different surface and the selection has a positive looking jockey booking. 

*NR

Kind Review 9/2 9th (-1pt) 

Lay bets: Amaysmont +1pt, Be Proud +1pt

Total: +1pt

NEWCASTLE 8.05 

In this maximum 14 runner dash I can find four known front runners and they are my top four ratings, Highland Acclaim and Sin E Shekell's may both prefer a longer trip and I would look to lay them if they are a single figure price, Longroom is my 4th top rated and although the draw doesn't matter as there's no bend to manoeuvre its drawn in stall 1, Lord Of The Glen who is in stall 5 won very easily when finishing like a train at Southwell and this is the track where the rest of his wins have been, Slowmo is my 2nd top rated and comes out of stall 6 so this pair might take each other on but my top rated is ARCAVALLO 7/1 who finished 3rd behind Lord Of The Glen at Southwell, I quite expected the selection to lead that day but sat just behind the leaders, it is 5lbs better off in this race and if it leads here it should be able to hold on for the win and being in stall 12 it could get across to the rail and then prove hard to catch and the change of jockey looks a positive move as he has a 3-7 record for the stable on turf.

Arcavallo 7/1 3rd (-1pt)

Total: -1pt 

Total on the day: -1pt

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