4:45 Newcastle Racing Tips (3rd December)

NEWCASTLE 4.45 

This looks a good race for a class 5 affair WITH a full complement of 14 runners with just one known front runner amongst them, firstly there isn't any horse I could put forward as a lay because everything I have a negative against are forecast to be a double figure price so don't represent any value, before looking at any apprentices claim there is only 5lbs between my top five ratings, Chookie Dunedin 14/1 starts off as my 5th top rated but the apprentices 3lb claim moves it up to 3rd top spot but this one hasn't been in good form recently but could possibly be worth an each way interest, Burrows Seeside 6/1 and Gowanlad 6/1 are my joint 3rd top rated before being relegated into joint 4th top spot, Hart Stopper 11/2 starts off as my top rated and the apprentices 5lb claim would move it further clear but the jockey is 0-3 on the stables older horses and has only ridden one previous winner for the stable and may need this run for fitness after about 6 months off, my money will be riding on SPARTAN FIGHTER 6/1 who is the one I think will set the pace to the race and is well drawn in stall 12 to do just that and has been found a good chance to follow up its win last time out and the apprentice jockey has a decent 15% win ratio on the stables older horses. 

Spartan Fighter 6/1 1st +1pt 

Total +6pts 

NEWCASTLE 5.45 

This class 3 race looks very very tricky, 7 of the 13 runners have been known to lead before so it could end up being a frantic early pace and I think a lot of the field will struggle to get involved and the leaders will be hard to peg back, I will look to lay Tommy De Vit (now a non-runner) who has pieces of form that look good but both of its wins came in relatively slow run races and that wont happen here, both Giogiobbo and Tathmeen are capable of producing a good speed figure but the former usually does so in lower class races and the both have been in poor form for quite a while now, the rest I have negatives against are forecast to be double figure prices so will be left alone, I will be backing two horses in this race and i am hoping they will both be each way prices, MOHAREB 16/1 (EW) is a front running type and stall 10 should be a bonus although I have been looking at a 2020 rating and hasn't been quite as good so far this year, the other is KIND REVIEW 14/1 (EW) who is drawn in stall 8 but this one hasn't been in good form lately but it did record its top rating earlier this year and if coming back to form it would have every chance of winning this race from the front so i will be going with two each way wagers in this race.

Kind Review 16/1 2nd +2.2pts

Mohareb 11/1 9th -2pts 

Total +0.2pts

Total on the day +6.2pts

2:35 Newcastle Racing Tips (12th November)

NEWCASTLE 2.35 

5 Furlongs --- Class 3 Handicap 

MARNIE JAMES this one may need this run for fitness and only ran twice earlier this year and hasn't been seen since March and usually needs at least one run to gain fitness but I think the price might reflect that fact. 

INDIAN SOUNDS 10/1 has relatively poor trainer stats with a 9% win ratio and the jockey is 1-23 for this stable which puts me off its chances and form wise I think its a better prospect when raced over a longer distance and might be worth laying if of value to do so, IE:- a single figure price.

LAHORE hasn't been in good form lately and its best speed figure for just this year is quite poor but its best from 2020 could possibly see it make the frame if it springs back to form but maybe worth laying the win part at the price. 

LIPSINK 5/1 has a time recorded at Chelmsford on polytrack that would make it competitive but has just 1 slow time to its name on this surface at Wolverhampton and might be better when racing over a longer trip so maybe worth taking on at the price. 

OUTRAGE has a time from 2020 that would make it competitive but its best from this year has been way below that level but its time last time out at Wolverhampton would give it a chance of making the frame. 

ORNATE this 9yo seems to be gradually getting slower each year and its best from this year wouldn't be good enough to win this race and has poor trainer 2-72 and jockey 0-3 stats and its been 183 days and 64 runners since the stable last had a winner but could make the frame if anywhere near is best from 2020 or even better its 2019 speed figure. 

BLACKBERRY has only ran once before on an artificial surface where it didn't make the frame but it does have a good time when it won on turf on good to firm ground but would still need to improve a little to win this race. 

KIND REVIEW this one comes out top rated on my figures for just this year but the drawback with this runner is that the stable hasn't had a winner from 31 runners in the last 119 days.

 SECRETINTHEPARK 11/2 hasn't recorded a speed figure on my graphs for the AW tracks since 2019 but has won its last 2 races on turf so is in good form, its 2 runs over this c/d in 2020 left a lot to be desired so may be worth a small lay at the price. 

POLITICS hasn't any form at this distance on this surface but it is one that likes to lead and does have a competitive time recorded on grass on good to firm going so could go well if taking to this surface. 

NIGHT ON EARTH hasn't run on this surface before so what to expect I'm not sure but it think it might be better over a longer distance and hasn't won from 10 previous attempts on an artificial surface but its another with a time from running on grass that would give it a chance here. 

PHOENIX STAR this ones times are relatively slow for this class of race and might need further to show its true worth but i think the price will back that up. 

KRAKEN POWER hasn't been in good form in its recent races and may not like this surface or maybe it needs further and probably both on its debut on the all-Weather tracks. 

TATHMEEN is capable of recording a good time but does all its best work in lower class races than this one and may get outclassed in this race but it could make the frame if others falter. 

SUMMARY: To be honest for a class 3 race this one is quite poor and those with good ratings haven't been in good form lately so any stakes will be kept low as this race might not take much winning, I will hopefully have found an each way shot that could run better than its bare form suggests. In all honesty I would probably be best leaving this race alone but I am going to take a punt on one that could win this race if springing back to its best and it is the price which it is foretasted to be on the early tissue prices, so I am hoping that KIND REVIEW 20/1 can either lead or at least contest the lead and it could make a bold bid from the front to win this race and I would kick myself if I didn't back it and it won at a big price.

Kind Review 20/1 7th -1pt 

Lay bet: Indian Sound +1pt 

Total on the day 0pts  

6:15 Newcastle Racing Tips & Lay Bet (5th February)

NEWCASTLE 6.15 

With a couple of known front runners it gives me a starting point, Giogiobbo has only slow times here from 2 previous runs and Mythmaker a slow time from just one previous c/d run are the likely pacesetters but will need to improve time wise to win this race unless one gets an easy lead and steals the race from the front but I think that's unlikely, I will look to lay just the one horse (Lorna Cole) who will stay on at the finish but too late to get the win, Storm Over and Chookie Dunedin could do battle to make the frame as they are closely rated in 3rd to 4th top positions, Athollblair Boy is my 2nd top rated using a time from 2019 but its best since then has been way below that level but it does well over this c/d winning 4 and placed 7 from 17 runs but my money will b riding on KIND REVIEW 8/1 who will be held up for a late run, its won 2 AW races, one here, placed in 3 other races from just 8 runs. 

Kind Review 8/1 3rd (-1pt)

Lay bet: Lorna Cole was in the 7:15 Newcastle (lost) +1pt

Total: 0pts

NEWCASTLE 7.15 

There's possibly 3 pacesetters in the field and Leo Minor may do best of them if its gets to the front but this horse is 0-22 on the AW tracks and made the frame once from 4 starts over this c/d which makes me doubt it can/will win, BUNNIAN 4/1 is my 3rd top rated but there's only 3lbs between my top 3, its won 3 and placed 3 times from its 6 previous c/d runs so it should go well, BE PROUD 9/4 who won its last race is top rated using its best time from 2019 and is being ridden by a 5lb claiming apprentice while its best time from 2020 only makes it my 3rd top rated even with the 5lb claim but it should go well, BALLYARE 10/3 is top rated on just recent c/d times and could go one better here after finishing 2nd last time out, its hard to split these three so I will go with dutching them.

Bunnian 4/1 3rd 

Be Proud 9/4 4th 

Ballyare 9/2 5th 

Total (-3pts)

Total on the day: -3pts

5:30 Newcastle Racing Tips & Lay Bets (6th November)

NEWCASTLE 5.30 

With 3 known front running sorts in the race it should be a true run affair and one of them Fantasy Keeper is top rated using a time from Kempton and its never run on this surface before the only thing that makes me think this might be its race is because the apprentice jockey is 0-12 for the stable but it is running again quickly so it cannot be ignored and i might have a covering bet on it, I will look to lay (Amaysmont + *Bunnian + Be Proud) if in single figure prices, Gowanbuster could do best of the pacesetters as its 2nd top on just 2020 c/d times but only 5th top on overall figures, Lucky Lodge is another that could go well if reproducing its best but i will be backing KIND REVIEW 9/2 who is my top rated on 2020 c/d times and 2nd top overall but as I've already said the top rated’s best time came on a different surface and the selection has a positive looking jockey booking. 

*NR

Kind Review 9/2 9th (-1pt) 

Lay bets: Amaysmont +1pt, Be Proud +1pt

Total: +1pt

NEWCASTLE 8.05 

In this maximum 14 runner dash I can find four known front runners and they are my top four ratings, Highland Acclaim and Sin E Shekell's may both prefer a longer trip and I would look to lay them if they are a single figure price, Longroom is my 4th top rated and although the draw doesn't matter as there's no bend to manoeuvre its drawn in stall 1, Lord Of The Glen who is in stall 5 won very easily when finishing like a train at Southwell and this is the track where the rest of his wins have been, Slowmo is my 2nd top rated and comes out of stall 6 so this pair might take each other on but my top rated is ARCAVALLO 7/1 who finished 3rd behind Lord Of The Glen at Southwell, I quite expected the selection to lead that day but sat just behind the leaders, it is 5lbs better off in this race and if it leads here it should be able to hold on for the win and being in stall 12 it could get across to the rail and then prove hard to catch and the change of jockey looks a positive move as he has a 3-7 record for the stable on turf.

Arcavallo 7/1 3rd (-1pt)

Total: -1pt 

Total on the day: -1pt