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Thursday 17 December 2020

1:30 Southwell Racing Tips (18th December)


In this race Duke Of Firenze has relatively slow times to its name and Lezardieux might need further so I would look to the lay the pair of them, the other 4 runners are only separated by 2lb’s, Dark Shot could possibly set the pace and if getting an easy lead it could pinch the race especially as it’s best time from 2019 would make it my joint top rated, Birkenhead is the other joint top rated and usually likes to track the leaders, Zapper Cass is 3rd best but only 1lb off top spot and should be staying on strongly at the finish, Thegreatestshowman is my 4th top rated but has poor trainer/jockey stats, looking through the rest of the trainer/jockey stats both of the ones I was going to lay come off the list, I will take a punt and back ZAPPER CASS 11/2 because the jockey on this ones 7lb claim moves it to top spot and the apprentice has 1 -3 record for this stable. 

Zapper Cass 11/2 1st (+5.5pts) (Betfair SP 6.84) 

Total: +5.5pts


The 3 at the bottom of the handicap haven't shown any worthwhile form lately but I expect they will be outsiders, Mansfield best time was back in 2018 and been nowhere near that level since, Red Allure and Raspberry both have relatively slow times, Superseded and Thegreyvtrain could try to set the pace but I'm not sure they are fast enough to lead here, the early pace could be set by ARCAVALLO 2/1 it doesn't have any course form but if able to reproduce its best Newcastle time then i would win a little cosily but just in case it doesn't show its best I will also back the top rated horse on c/d times and that is TIME TO REASON 5/1 who can be held up or track the leaders and then stay on strongly at the finish, the prices ain't great but I cannot go against my analysis. 

Arcavallo 7/4 4th (-1pt) 
Time To Reason 7/1 6th (-1pt) 

Total: -2pts


This 2nd division is harder to analyse despite having 3 runners that have been known to lead before but 2 of them at the bottom of the handicap haven't been in form lately so that leaves me thinking the pace maybe set by Red Stripes but the times of this one this year have been below par, age may be catching up with this 8yo but it could still run a good race but the trainer only has a 2% win ratio at this course, Dubai Paradise has a time from Chelmsford that would make it my 2nd top rated overall but its one run over this c/d resulted in a slow time and the jockey is 09- for the stable, Trouser The Cash has a time from Chelmsford that would make it my top rated but its c/d time is way below that effort and the trainers record here is 0-7, which leaves me with backing *PASSIONAL 2/1 who is my top rated on just 2020 c/d times and this one should be staying on strongly at the finish and this race could be run to suit it plus it has what looks a positive jockey booking but once again the price is quite low. 



Only 8 runners for this class 2 sprint which always puzzles me why so few enter to win a 12k race but I'm struggling to analyse it to conclusion, LORD RIDDIFORD 6/1 would be the one to lead using just 2020 c/d times but Lihou is also a front runner and has a fast time from Lingfield but hasn't raced on this surface before so I am not sure what to expect while this is a step up of 2 grades to run here and it had to drop down from class 3 to 4 to get back to winning ways last time out, the same thing applies to Lampang as I am once again using a Lingfield time as this one finished fast over 5 furlongs in a very fast time and if staying this extra distance would have to have a good chance, I usually go with the proven and that is Lord Riddiford but I will also have covering bets on Lampang just in case it does like this surface and stays the extra furlong.

Lord Riddiford 6/1 2nd (-1pt)

Total: -1pt

Total on the day: +2.5pts

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