5:30 Southwell Racing Tips (25th February)

SOUTHWELL 5.30 

This 8 runner race looks very intriguing, the draw doesn't mean much over this straight 5 furlong course but the only known front runner, Spirit Power is drawn in stall 1 but hasn't any recent c/d form, the trainer has a 17% win ratio and the jockey has a 22% win rate for the stable, Smokey has a time from Lingfield that would make it top rated overall but with no form on this slower surface I'm not sure how well it will go, Qaaraat will run its usual race if in the mood but its not one to rely on, Global Melody has 2 wins and 2 places from its 6 c/d runs and could go well in this race, Dynamo Walt is maybe getting a bit old nowadays but could go ok, I will split my stakes between PASSIONAL 6/4 who seems to have a positive jockey booking and has won its only previous race over this c/d and USTATH 13/2 who has won twice been placed once from just 4 previous c/d attempts, the former will be held up for a late run while the latter will try to track the leaders and then stay on resolutely at the finish 

Passional 6/4 2nd -1pts

Ustath 13/2 7th -1pt

Total -2pts

SOUTHWELL 7.00

Only 8 runners but another very intriguing race, Zylan trainer stats 16% wins, jockey stats 20% wins, its won 6 and placed 4 times from 13 c/d runs and time wise it makes my top 4 ratings it likes to lead and has the plum stall 1 draw,, Lord Oberon trainer stats 23% wins, jockey 38% wins its won both of its c/d runs but time wise may need to improve to win this race, Rock Sound trainer stats 40% wins, jockey stats also 40% wins and its best time from 2019 makes it my 2nd top rated, Garth Rockett trainer stats 27% wins, jockey 43% wins it hasn't any form over this course and its best time from Chelmsford would make it 2nd top rated overall, Katheefa has relatively poor trainer/jockey stats but has a time from 2019 that puts it in top spot, Alsvinder is the only other known frontrunner in this race, has ok trainer/jockey stats but would need to improve time wise to win, Medicine Jack hasn't any course form and would need to improve for the switch to this surface to win the race, Exceassable trainer stats 24% wins, jockey stats 23% wins and is top rated on just recent c/d times, a lot of connections look as though they fancy their chances in this race I will go with 2 horses to win from off the pace, if i was 100% sure that EXCESSABLE 4/1 was up to this class of race it would be my sole selection but i will have to back a 2nd horse in the shape of ROCK SOUND 7/2 who likes to stay on at the finish of races.

3:30 Lingfield Racing Tips (2nd January)

LINGFIELD 3.30 

This looks a competitive race for a class 6 dash, Super Julius ran its best race to date when leading and then finishing 2nd at Wolverhampton but whether it can repeat here is a big question as this is a faster surface and theres 2 natural frontrunners in the field and one of them is Big Time Maybe who might do better when tried over further, both Comeatchoo and Solar Park are capable of producing decent speed figures but this race may not be run to suit them and both will need some luck in the early stages being surrounded by fast starters, Shamshon is another that can go well and may stay on strongly at the finish so could make the frame but my money will be riding on EQUALLY FAST 7/1 who had one run a couple of weeks ago after finishing its turf campaign in September and hopefully that has tuned it up to win here again as it has won 4 of its 6 previous runs over this course and distance it is a possible pacesetter and in the make-up of this race stall 3 looks ideal.

Equally Fast 8/1 9th (-1pt)

Total -1pt

WOLVERHAMPTON 4.40 

This race looks very poor as I have only got 4 horses that have managed to register on my figures, Oh So Nice is 4th top but that time was from 2019 and hasn't been in very good form recently but it could race prominently in this race with only one other known pacesetter in the field, Red Allure is 3rd best despite this not being its favourite surface so could make the frame, Dynamo Walt starts of as my joint top rated if I use a 2019 time but only 3rd on 2020 c/d times and the trainers 1-21 record at this course doesn't inspire confidence, that leaves me with the top weight PASSIONAL 6/4 who starts off as my joint top rated but the apprentice jockeys 5lb claim moves it to clear top spot, I think it will be the hot favourite in this race but as long as its a trier I cannot see it getting beat but whenever i back a favourite it seems to come unstuck.

Passional 6/4 1st (+1.5pts) (Betfair SP 2.53)

Total on the day +0.5pts

1:30 Southwell Racing Tips (18th December)

SOUTHWELL 1.30 

In this race Duke Of Firenze has relatively slow times to its name and Lezardieux might need further so I would look to the lay the pair of them, the other 4 runners are only separated by 2lb’s, Dark Shot could possibly set the pace and if getting an easy lead it could pinch the race especially as it’s best time from 2019 would make it my joint top rated, Birkenhead is the other joint top rated and usually likes to track the leaders, Zapper Cass is 3rd best but only 1lb off top spot and should be staying on strongly at the finish, Thegreatestshowman is my 4th top rated but has poor trainer/jockey stats, looking through the rest of the trainer/jockey stats both of the ones I was going to lay come off the list, I will take a punt and back ZAPPER CASS 11/2 because the jockey on this ones 7lb claim moves it to top spot and the apprentice has 1 -3 record for this stable. 

Zapper Cass 11/2 1st (+5.5pts) (Betfair SP 6.84) 

Total: +5.5pts

WOLVERHAMPTON 4.10 Div I 

The 3 at the bottom of the handicap haven't shown any worthwhile form lately but I expect they will be outsiders, Mansfield best time was back in 2018 and been nowhere near that level since, Red Allure and Raspberry both have relatively slow times, Superseded and Thegreyvtrain could try to set the pace but I'm not sure they are fast enough to lead here, the early pace could be set by ARCAVALLO 2/1 it doesn't have any course form but if able to reproduce its best Newcastle time then i would win a little cosily but just in case it doesn't show its best I will also back the top rated horse on c/d times and that is TIME TO REASON 5/1 who can be held up or track the leaders and then stay on strongly at the finish, the prices ain't great but I cannot go against my analysis. 

Arcavallo 7/4 4th (-1pt) 

Time To Reason 7/1 6th (-1pt) 

Total: -2pts

WOLVERHAMPTON 4.45 Div II

This 2nd division is harder to analyse despite having 3 runners that have been known to lead before but 2 of them at the bottom of the handicap haven't been in form lately so that leaves me thinking the pace maybe set by Red Stripes but the times of this one this year have been below par, age may be catching up with this 8yo but it could still run a good race but the trainer only has a 2% win ratio at this course, Dubai Paradise has a time from Chelmsford that would make it my 2nd top rated overall but its one run over this c/d resulted in a slow time and the jockey is 09- for the stable, Trouser The Cash has a time from Chelmsford that would make it my top rated but its c/d time is way below that effort and the trainers record here is 0-7, which leaves me with backing *PASSIONAL 2/1 who is my top rated on just 2020 c/d times and this one should be staying on strongly at the finish and this race could be run to suit it plus it has what looks a positive jockey booking but once again the price is quite low. 

*NR

WOLVERHAMPTON 6.45 

Only 8 runners for this class 2 sprint which always puzzles me why so few enter to win a 12k race but I'm struggling to analyse it to conclusion, LORD RIDDIFORD 6/1 would be the one to lead using just 2020 c/d times but Lihou is also a front runner and has a fast time from Lingfield but hasn't raced on this surface before so I am not sure what to expect while this is a step up of 2 grades to run here and it had to drop down from class 3 to 4 to get back to winning ways last time out, the same thing applies to Lampang as I am once again using a Lingfield time as this one finished fast over 5 furlongs in a very fast time and if staying this extra distance would have to have a good chance, I usually go with the proven and that is Lord Riddiford but I will also have covering bets on Lampang just in case it does like this surface and stays the extra furlong.

Lord Riddiford 6/1 2nd (-1pt)

Total: -1pt

Total on the day: +2.5pts