8:15 Southwell Racing Tips (17th February)

SOUTHWELL 8.15 

A full house of fourteen in this class six sprint with four known front running types amongst them and this race could well be won from the front as my two top rated horses both like to lead. I will look to lay both *Privilege and Marwari if a single figure price as they can struggle to stay this distance when there's a fast early pace whilst Magicinthemaking races as though further suits it better so is added to my list of possible lays. Jack Ryan who can be held up or track the leaders is my fourth top rated horse and could get a good tow into the race being drawn in stall nine with two known fast starters in the two stalls just on its inside and it is only one pound behind Giselles Izzy who sits in third top spot and this one usually likes to race in midfield before trying to stay on at the finish. BRAZEN ARROW 12/1 is my top rated using a Wolverhampton rating from last year but the stable hasn't had a winner for nearly one hundred and fifty days although they have only had forty five runners during that time spell, it does have the coveted stall one draw which is a bonus and would probably have been my sole bet in this race if the stable had been in better form so I will also be backing BIG IMPACT 25/1 who is my second top rated using a course and distance rating recorded last year but its been nearly fifty days since this stable had a winner but I'm hoping one of them can lead all the way for the victory. 

*NR

Big Impact 25/1 5th -1pt 

Brazen Arrow 12/1 9th -1pt 

Lay bets Marwari +1pt  

Total on the day -1pt

1:30 Southwell Racing Tips (18th December)

SOUTHWELL 1.30 

In this race Duke Of Firenze has relatively slow times to its name and Lezardieux might need further so I would look to the lay the pair of them, the other 4 runners are only separated by 2lb’s, Dark Shot could possibly set the pace and if getting an easy lead it could pinch the race especially as it’s best time from 2019 would make it my joint top rated, Birkenhead is the other joint top rated and usually likes to track the leaders, Zapper Cass is 3rd best but only 1lb off top spot and should be staying on strongly at the finish, Thegreatestshowman is my 4th top rated but has poor trainer/jockey stats, looking through the rest of the trainer/jockey stats both of the ones I was going to lay come off the list, I will take a punt and back ZAPPER CASS 11/2 because the jockey on this ones 7lb claim moves it to top spot and the apprentice has 1 -3 record for this stable. 

Zapper Cass 11/2 1st (+5.5pts) (Betfair SP 6.84) 

Total: +5.5pts

WOLVERHAMPTON 4.10 Div I 

The 3 at the bottom of the handicap haven't shown any worthwhile form lately but I expect they will be outsiders, Mansfield best time was back in 2018 and been nowhere near that level since, Red Allure and Raspberry both have relatively slow times, Superseded and Thegreyvtrain could try to set the pace but I'm not sure they are fast enough to lead here, the early pace could be set by ARCAVALLO 2/1 it doesn't have any course form but if able to reproduce its best Newcastle time then i would win a little cosily but just in case it doesn't show its best I will also back the top rated horse on c/d times and that is TIME TO REASON 5/1 who can be held up or track the leaders and then stay on strongly at the finish, the prices ain't great but I cannot go against my analysis. 

Arcavallo 7/4 4th (-1pt) 

Time To Reason 7/1 6th (-1pt) 

Total: -2pts

WOLVERHAMPTON 4.45 Div II

This 2nd division is harder to analyse despite having 3 runners that have been known to lead before but 2 of them at the bottom of the handicap haven't been in form lately so that leaves me thinking the pace maybe set by Red Stripes but the times of this one this year have been below par, age may be catching up with this 8yo but it could still run a good race but the trainer only has a 2% win ratio at this course, Dubai Paradise has a time from Chelmsford that would make it my 2nd top rated overall but its one run over this c/d resulted in a slow time and the jockey is 09- for the stable, Trouser The Cash has a time from Chelmsford that would make it my top rated but its c/d time is way below that effort and the trainers record here is 0-7, which leaves me with backing *PASSIONAL 2/1 who is my top rated on just 2020 c/d times and this one should be staying on strongly at the finish and this race could be run to suit it plus it has what looks a positive jockey booking but once again the price is quite low. 

*NR

WOLVERHAMPTON 6.45 

Only 8 runners for this class 2 sprint which always puzzles me why so few enter to win a 12k race but I'm struggling to analyse it to conclusion, LORD RIDDIFORD 6/1 would be the one to lead using just 2020 c/d times but Lihou is also a front runner and has a fast time from Lingfield but hasn't raced on this surface before so I am not sure what to expect while this is a step up of 2 grades to run here and it had to drop down from class 3 to 4 to get back to winning ways last time out, the same thing applies to Lampang as I am once again using a Lingfield time as this one finished fast over 5 furlongs in a very fast time and if staying this extra distance would have to have a good chance, I usually go with the proven and that is Lord Riddiford but I will also have covering bets on Lampang just in case it does like this surface and stays the extra furlong.

Lord Riddiford 6/1 2nd (-1pt)

Total: -1pt

Total on the day: +2.5pts

2:15 Southwell Racing Tips (17th December)

SOUTHWELL 2.15 

Slowmo might not like this surface so a lay, Arzaak is my 3rd top rated so could make the frame, Precious Plum has led before but outside my top 4 ratings, Suwaan not shown much time wise for quite awhile so a lay, Loulin just outside my top 4 ratings, Red Stripes could make all and my 2nd top rated, George Thomas 4th top on my list could make the frame if others falter, Gossip poor recent form and may prefer further, Tan outside my top 4 ratings and may like further, Bluella top on my speed figures and will b staying on at the finish. 

SUMMARY: There's a few I could lay if they are of any value to lay, I will be backing two horses, firstly there's RED STRIPES 13/2 who could possibly lead here and then be hard to catch and is only 1lb below BLUELLA 9/1 who is my top rated so this one would need a near perfect ride to catch the leader but its so close on my figures I cannot really split them.

Bluella 9/1 4th (-1pt)

Red Stripes 13/2 5th (-1pt) 

Total -2pts 

SOUTHWELL 5.45 

Spring Romance is in good form but mainly in relatively slow run affairs only 4th top on my figures, Little Red Socks hasn't any course form and needs to improve for the switch to this surface, Napping only slow c/d times and this course doesn't seem to suit it so one to lay, Bartat a known front runner but maybe better over further and not quick enough to lead here, Pearl Of Qatar versatile with its racing tactics and is my 2nd top rated, Antagonize no distance form on the AW not sure what to expect so no bet or lay, Dirchill slow time from a sole c/d run, could try to lead but is 0-16 on the AW not sure this surface will suit, The Golden Cue my 3rd top rated on a c/d time its win last time out was a slow run affair could make the frame, Archimedes another one that likes to lead and stall 2 looks ideal plus its my top rated, Pilgrims Pursuit only shown poor form recently, Alqaab also poor recent form. 

SUMMARY: A few I could lay depending on the betting but as for my bets to win this race I will again be backing two horses as they are too close to split, ARCHIMEDES 18/1(EW) who is a front runner is my top rated and also has stall 1 so could lead all the way and at the price has to be an each way bet as it has been known to bounce back to form without warning before, it is only 1lb above PEARL OF QATAR 7/1 and this one has very good trainer/jockey stats and from stall 4 it could lead or at least contest the lead from the off or sit on the rails just behind the leader ready to pounce.

 

Pearl Of Qatar 7/1 4th (-1pt)

Archimedes 40/1 8th (-2pts)

Total: -3pts 

Total on the day: -5pts

12:20 Southwell Racing Tips (17th November)

SOUTHWELL 12.20 5f Div I

There's 3 known front runners in this race, the top 3 in the handicap but its a low grade 6 affair, A Go Go from stall 9 might do best of them, Ustath has been in good form and comes out 2nd best on my figures but isn't big enough to back each way the same applies to Dark Side Dream who is a 3yo and my 3rd top rated, my money will be riding on AWAKE IN ASIA 14/1 (EW) who will be staying on strongly at the finish and with plenty of early pace in the race it might be run to suit it and looks worth an each way punt at the price. 

Awake In Asia 33/1 5th -2pts

Total: -2pts

SOUTHWELL 12.50 5f Div II

There's no known front runners in this 2nd division which always makes a race hard to analyse, I've got joint 3rd top rated horses in Raabeh and Loulin but both of themes best time was recorded in 2019, in 2nd top spot is Time To Reason 12/1 and might be worth an each way punt but my money will be on BLUELLA 5/1 who will hope there's a decent early pace as it likes to stay on strongly at the finish. 

Bluella 5/1 3rd - 1pt 

Total: -1pt

SOUTHWELL 3.50 6f 

The top weight Pearl Of Qatar is my 4th top rated and versatile when it comes to racing tactics, 3rd best on my figures is Global Humor who likes to track the leaders, Requited has a time from 2019 that would make it my top rated but its best from this year has been well below that level and its an outsider in the betting, i am hoping that KRAKA 7/1 from stall 9 can either lead or at least contest the lead and then prove hard to catch if getting to the front, it is my top rated on 2020 c/d times and 2nd top overall. 

Kraka 7/1 8th -1pt

Total: -1pt

NEWCASTLE 6.45 6f Div I

This 1st division is full of 3yo’s, seven in number and other lightly raced sorts and I was going to leave the race alone until I saw the betting, Kommander Kirkup 25/1 could be an each way bet if bouncing back to form, Kilconquaar is another that could go well but isn't really an each way price but I will be having a small each way punt on STAR CRACKER 14/1 (EW) who is a known front runner and could go better than the price suggests. 

Star Cracker 22/1 Unp  (-2pts)

Total: -2pts 

NEWCASTLE 7.15 6f Div II 

This 2nd division isn't much better with a limited amount of data to work with, Burtonwood has some form from last year and even better form from 2017 that would put it in the mix, Etikaal could also go well but I will be having a small bet on PHANTASMAL 9/1 (EW) and at the price it might be worth backing each way.