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Saturday, 16 January 2021

3:35 Southwell Racing Tips (17th January)


WASNTEXPECTINGTHAT 5/1 only comes out 5th top on my figures, its not been in form lately and the trainers record here is 1-27 and the jockeys win ratio is 7% so maybe one to lay at the price.

ZYLAN 10/3 is a front running type and my top rated on 2020/21 times which is always a positive but only 3rd top overall and the trainer has a 16% win ratio here and its won 5 times, placed 3 times from 10 previous cd runs. 

KATHEEFA 11/2 is joint 2nd top rated on 2020/21 times but 6lbs off top spot, its best time from 2019 would make it top rated, its won 4, placed 2 from 9 c/d runs so could at least make the frame and could win if repeating its 2019 time but that was recorded quite a while ago now.

STORM OVER 6/1 hasn't any course form to its name, and would need to improve for the switch to this surface to win this race and the jockeys 1-35 record makes me think it could be one to lay especially at the price. 

ALSVINDER 10/1 has been known to lead but maybe only when nothing else wanted to, its got no c/d form to its name and its best from Lingfield would need to be improved upon to win this race. 

REQUINTO DAWN 11/2 another that can lead if needs be but maybe not here, it is joint 2nd top on 2020/21 times so could make the frame and the trainer has a decent 22% win ratio with its older horses at this course but isn't what I would call an each way price. 

BELLEVARDE 16/1 has a time from 2019 that would make it my 2nd top rated but the trainer has a poor 7% win ratio here and the jockeys 1-14 record doesn't make me think connections are expecting it to win this race. 

EQUIDAE 7/1 this trainer has a decent 20% in ratio and the jockey is 16%, it has led before but maybe not here but races as though further suits it better so a fast pace would help its cause and will be staying on at the finish. 

SHAKABOOAH 20/1 is making its handicap debut so could be dangerous but doesn't seem fancied in the tissue prices and with 7 and 8 win ratios for the trainer and jockey isn't great. 

SUMMARY: There is a few I could lay, depending on prices, I think Equidae, Alsvinder, Requinto Dawn and Katheefa could all run well and battle to make the frame, but I will 1 will be putting my money on ZYLAN 10/3 who I think will put the pace to this race with the only downside being its stall 9 draw but in the make-up of this race it could get to the front and if doing so it could lead all the way and follow up from its in last time out, I am not a fan of backing favourites but this is a class 4 affair so i expect connections will be hoping to follow up here.

Zylan 5/1 6th -1pt

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