1:35 Southwell Racing Tips (16th March)

SOUTHWELL 1.35 

Only 7 runners but there is a couple of known front runners in the race, I will look to lay (Marwari) who has a good time from Newcastle but its 2 runs over this c/d haven't seen it go fast enough to register on my graphs, Gossip could attempt to lead but seems to set a slow pace, or maybe its the slow going here, True Hero is the other one that might lead and if getting an easy lead it could be dangerous but is only 3rd best on my figures, Qaaraat comes out 2nd best but from its 10 runs over this c/d it has only won twice but has been placed in the other 8 races so would be a nice each way bet but is forecast to be the favourite so I will side with ARZAAK 8/1 who is top rated using its best 2020 time and could win a shade cosily if able to reproduce that figure, I will also have a covering bet on True Hero just in case it gets an easy lead and then hold on to repel any challengers. 

Arzaak 9/1 4th -1pt 

Lay bet Marwari +1pt 

Total 0pts

SOUTHWELL 2.45 

This is a class 4 race so it should be quite good but i have a feeling there's a few runners that are having a run in preparation for when the turf season kicks into gear so any stakes will be kept on the low side, Lord Oberon looked good when winning last time out and that time would be good enough for 2nd top spot so I will expect it to run well here and I also expect it will be he favourite to win the race, I will go with what looks the value call and back ZYLAN 8/1 who has been known to lead before and if getting to the front from stall 9 it could prove hard to catch and hopefully it will be an each price and the 3lb claiming apprentice has a 16% win ratio for the stable. 

Zylan 12/1 5th -2pts

Total -2pts

SOUTHWELL 3.55 

This is a low class stakes race which seems to be new approach to let low grade horses have a chance of winning and most of the races are quite dire and if looking for recent 2020/21 c/d form there is virtually nothing to work with the only exception being RED STRIPES 7/1 this natural front running horse seems to have very little if any opposition for the lead, unless something changes its usual racing tactics, yes it is a 9 year old and certainly isn't as good as it once was but one day it will win another race by leading all the way and maybe that day will be in this race. 

Red Stripes 7/1 4th -1pt 

Total -1pt

NEWCASTLE 7.45 

This looks a good race for a class 5 affair with 11 runners but only one known front runner, I will look to lay (Zulu Zander 9/1) as long as it stays a single figure price, who seems better over five furlongs, Al Suil Elle may need further to show its best so this race might not be run to suit it, I wouldn't try to put anyone off backing the top weight Save The Spirit, Devils Angel does well at this c/d winning twice and placed twice from just 5 runs but would need to improve time wise to win this race, Good Night Mr Tom and Hart Stopper may need the run for fitness, I think that Kilconquar might be outclassed at this level, the same might be apply to to the bottom weight ABSOLUTE DREAM 13/2 but this one is the only known front runner and could dominate the race from the front and may take some catching but I do think that ATHOLLBLAIR BOY 6/1 could catch it as its only rated 1lb below it on recent c/d form but has a time from 2019 that would see it catching it quite cosily but I will be backing them both to cover both angles.

Athollblair Boy 6/1 2nd -1pt 

Absolute Dream 6/1 8th -1pt 

Lay bet Zulu Zander +1pt 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day -4pts

1:10 Southwell Racing Tips (28th January)

When I write these blogs I hope you don't just look at the selections in capital letters or the lays in brackets and underlined because you could be missing things that you could use to your advantage. I write these blogs two days before the race and I post the night before and things can change with non-runners and how the betting changes things so my ramblings might help your decision making. 

SOUTHWELL 1.10 

Just 8 runners with 3 known front running types who are drawn in the 3 inside stalls and its a race where i will have to back a front runner and one coming from off the pace just in case they go off too fast and tire nearing the finish,I think Alexej will be at the fore of the betting and I think mainly because its from the powerful stable of J.Gosden and the jockey R.Havlin but its runs from 2020 were all over further that the 6 furlongs here and stayed on at the finish so I'm surprised its dropped down in trip, obviously it could be a very superior horse compared to the rest and win despite it not being ideal conditions but I will lay it if a short price, I am hoping that ZYLAN 10/3 can get to the front and if doing so it could prove hard to catch being my 2nd top rated but I do have SHALLOW HAL 10/1 rated just 3lbs higher so may need a trouble free run to pick up the pacesetters hence the 2 bets, both have decent trainer stats and have good jockeys stats in fact their stats are identical and it looks as though both stables are expecting to win. 

Shallow Hal 10/1 1st (+10pts) (Betfair SP 6.86) 

Zylan 15/2 3rd (-1pt)

Total: +9pts

SOUTHWELL 3.55 

Down to 6 runners for this race but with 2 known front runners it should be a true run affair but both of the pacesetters would need to improve time wise to win this race, Ornate one of them has a good 2 wins and 3 placed efforts from just 5 c/d runs and the other King Of Stars has won twice from just 4 previous c/d runs, Giogiobbo may stay on at the finish but maybe too late to win the race, Diamond Dougal hasn't any course form but could take to this surface and be a hidden danger, Tawny Port is my 2nd top rated using a 2019 time but it hasn't any recent c/d form to work with, my money will be riding on THEGREATESTSHOWMAN 4/1 who is well handicapped and will be winning again soon and has every chance to do so here. 

Thegreatestshowman 4/1 2nd (-1pt) 

Total: -1pt

SOUTHWELL 4.25 

Up to 9 for this race but only one front running type in the shape of Gossip who is dangerous if allowed to set its own slightly slower pace and has won 2 of its 4 previous c/d races but there is a few who like to track or press the leader so maybe wont be able to pinch the race from the front, Marwari has a good time from Newastle but I'm not sure this surface will suit it, Pearl Of Qatar has good trainer/jockey stats and will be staying on at the finish but could struggle if its a slow run affair and if it wasn't for the good trainer/jockey stats i would lay it and if its a short price i might still lay it, the jockey has a 25% win ratio for the stable but it still means hes beaten in 3 out of every 4 races, i will be siding with ARZAAK 7/1 who can be held up or track the leaders and has won 3, placed 5 from 13 c/d runs so likes the course. 

Arzaak 12/1 8th (-1pt) 

Total: -1pt

NEWCASTLE 7.30 

I was going to leave this class 6 stakes race well alone and I will only bet in the race if my selection is a double figure price, that horse is STAR CRACKER 10/1 who can spring back to form without warning and might be worth having a small risky each way bet if its of value

Star Cracker 11/1 3rd +1.75pts

Total on the day: +8.75pts

3:35 Southwell Racing Tips (17th January)

SOUTHWELL 3.35 

WASNTEXPECTINGTHAT 5/1 only comes out 5th top on my figures, its not been in form lately and the trainers record here is 1-27 and the jockeys win ratio is 7% so maybe one to lay at the price.

ZYLAN 10/3 is a front running type and my top rated on 2020/21 times which is always a positive but only 3rd top overall and the trainer has a 16% win ratio here and its won 5 times, placed 3 times from 10 previous cd runs. 

KATHEEFA 11/2 is joint 2nd top rated on 2020/21 times but 6lbs off top spot, its best time from 2019 would make it top rated, its won 4, placed 2 from 9 c/d runs so could at least make the frame and could win if repeating its 2019 time but that was recorded quite a while ago now.

STORM OVER 6/1 hasn't any course form to its name, and would need to improve for the switch to this surface to win this race and the jockeys 1-35 record makes me think it could be one to lay especially at the price. 

ALSVINDER 10/1 has been known to lead but maybe only when nothing else wanted to, its got no c/d form to its name and its best from Lingfield would need to be improved upon to win this race. 

REQUINTO DAWN 11/2 another that can lead if needs be but maybe not here, it is joint 2nd top on 2020/21 times so could make the frame and the trainer has a decent 22% win ratio with its older horses at this course but isn't what I would call an each way price. 

BELLEVARDE 16/1 has a time from 2019 that would make it my 2nd top rated but the trainer has a poor 7% win ratio here and the jockeys 1-14 record doesn't make me think connections are expecting it to win this race. 

EQUIDAE 7/1 this trainer has a decent 20% in ratio and the jockey is 16%, it has led before but maybe not here but races as though further suits it better so a fast pace would help its cause and will be staying on at the finish. 

SHAKABOOAH 20/1 is making its handicap debut so could be dangerous but doesn't seem fancied in the tissue prices and with 7 and 8 win ratios for the trainer and jockey isn't great. 

SUMMARY: There is a few I could lay, depending on prices, I think Equidae, Alsvinder, Requinto Dawn and Katheefa could all run well and battle to make the frame, but I will 1 will be putting my money on ZYLAN 10/3 who I think will put the pace to this race with the only downside being its stall 9 draw but in the make-up of this race it could get to the front and if doing so it could lead all the way and follow up from its in last time out, I am not a fan of backing favourites but this is a class 4 affair so i expect connections will be hoping to follow up here.

Zylan 5/1 6th -1pt

2:30 Wolverhampton - Free Racing Tips (15th January)

WOLVERHAMPTON 2.30 

In this 10 runner race the only known frontrunner is Spirit Of Wedza and being in stall 3 it could gain control on the rails and being my joint 4th top-rated a lot of these might not get involved in the race, Bahuta Acha is my 3rd top-rated and it was using a 2019 time and it does usually stay on at the finish so could make the frame, Isabella Ruby starts off as my 2nd top-rated but the apprentice jockeys 7lb claim moves it to top spot by 1lb but the jockeys 1-24 record for the stable doesn't inspire me with confidence but never say never and it could make the frame, my money in this race will be riding on REASONED 5/2 who likes to track the leaders and then stay on the stronger at the finish and from stall 4 it could get a nice tow into the race and the jockey has a decent win ratio for this stable. 

Reasoned 5/2 8th 

SOUTHWELL 5.50

Typically move up to class 4 and there's only 5 runners, National Anthem won here on Monday over 5 furlongs and moves up to 6 here and this step up in class might catch it out but we do know its in good form and that is always a bonus, Private matter is capable of fast times but this one won last time out and I'm not sure this rise in class is within its capabilities, Airshow looks a much better horse over the minimum trip and Kamra might prefer a faster surface so my bet in this race will be ZYLAN 15/2 who is on a losing 13 but it showed a return to the winners enclosure is imminent when finishing 2nd last time out in a fast time the only niggling doubt is the jockeys 0-8 record for this stable but he has been placed in 6 of those 8 runs so maybe its just down to bad luck or coincidence. 

Zylan 15/2 1st

SOUTHWELL 6.50 

A sprint over the straight 5 furlongs here so the draw isn't as important as when going around a bend but if there is any advantage it seems to be for those drawn high, the downside here is the kickback when it's windy it puts some horses off, Loulin my 3rd top-rated could do best of those coming from off the pace as my top 2 are both front running sorts, Red Stripes in stall 5 here hasn't been lasting the distance lately but is capable of winning this race but my money will be riding on the back of *EESHA SAYS 6/1 who is coming out of stall 12 and being a front runner things could be in its favour and the 7lb claiming apprentice jockey has a win rate of 31% for the Tony Carroll stable.

*NR

Second top-rated (Red Stripes) wins well and 15/2* last night. * Rule 4 (7/2 SP)

Great tipping from Eric.