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Thursday 14 January 2021

4:10 Newcastle Racing Tips & Lay Bets (15th January)


When I put something up as a lay it is always a single figure price and admittedly as i get most of these things right they do drift and it is up to you whether you think laying a bigger priced horse is value or not. There is only 2 known front running types in this race and one of them, (Rockley Point) I would look to lay as it might be outclassed here as it usually runs/wins in class 6 races and the jockeys record, 0-10, doesn't inspire confidence, Suwaan has a time from back in 2018 that would make it my 2nd top rated and its not been in good form lately, Tathmeen could make the frame and its won 5 ties from 12 runs over this c/d so could at least make the frame, my money will be riding on LONGROOM 16/1 (EW) who won 3 races ago over this c/d, its next run was a false start and it was a spent force for the re-run, last time out it couldn't get to the front but in the make-up of this race it could lead and if doing so could prove hard to catch and luckily its an each way price. 

Longroom 20/1 5th (-2pts)

Lay bet: Rockley Point +1pt

Total: -1pt


There is quite a few lightly raced 4yo’ in this race so any stakes will be kept low, one of them Kits Allanah now in stall 2,improved dramatically last time out when leading before fading to 4th at Chelmsford and this slower surface might work in its favour and it might spoil the hopes of my selection JAZZ LEGEND 10/1  (EW) who is also a front running type luckily it has got the inside berth and if getting to the front it could prove hard to catch and at the price it has to be given as each way wager, I will look to lay (Archimedes) who is better over a shorter distance, two others Send In The Clouds and Fenix will join the list if in single figure prices as neither have shown much form, the 10yo Kommander Kirkup is still useful on its day but there are few and far between nowadays but never say never but it isn't a great race so wont take much winning. 

Jazz Legend 10/1 (EW) (+12.5pts)

Lay bet: Archimedes +1pt

Total: +13.5pts 


Lets start with something to lay (Heartstar) who is 5th top on my figures but this doesn't look to be its favoured surface, another to lay could be (Leo Minor) who stays on this distance but maybe needs further plus its held by on recent form by Gospel and that was a slow run affair for either of them unless the surface was much much slower than usual (that just might be the reason because they say the life of the surface is coming to an end and they are going to resurface the course this spring/summer and they are going to use the Tapeta surface which will be the end of fibresand in this country) I will be siding with RED STRIPES 11/2 who is a front running type and it could lead all the way here being my top rated on recent c/d times and 2nd top overall just behind MARWARI 3/1 who recorded the races highest speed figure at Newcastle in 2020, this will be its 1st run at this course but if taking to this surface it could go well so I will have to back both selections.

Marwari 5/1 2nd (-1pt)
Red Stripes 11/2 3rd (-1pt)

Lay bets: Heartstar +1pt, Leo Minor +1pt

Total: 0pts

Total on the day: +12.5pts

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