1:00 Southwell Racing Tips (8th April)

SOUTHWELL 1.00 

(The times recently on this surface have been very slow so any stakes have to be kept low) I expect Aleef to be one of the two horses who set the early pace here and it could do enough to at least make the frame, Quannah and Somewhere Secret have times from elsewhere that would put them in the mix but neither have raced on this surface before, True Hero is the other known front runner and won over c/d last time out and did record a slowish time but that's been the norm recently on this surface so could follow up here and I will use it as a cover bet but my main bet will be on ARZAAK 13/2 who has a time from last year that would see it winning but was behind True Hero last time out here so my stake will be kept low. 

Arzaak 13/2 3rd -1pt

Total -1pt

SOUTHWELL 1.35

There's 2 known front runners in this field of 10 and to be totally honest there isn't really enough recent data to be sure of the final analysis but i will put forward one that i will be having a small bet on, JAZZ LEGEND 8/1 is one of the 2 possible pacesetters and if getting to the front it could prove hard to peg back, it has the best recent time which is a bonus with how slow this surface is riding and its best time from 2019 would see it having every chance of leading all the way and if big enough in price i would go with an each way bet. 

Jazz Legend 16/1 6th -2pts

Total -2pt

SOUTHWELL 3.15 

This is a tricky looking race, there isn't any I could discard completely although I'm not sure this surface suits Batchelor Boy and could be worth laying but it is one of only two known leading types in this race, if I'm right that would leave Thrave to make the early pace and this one is one of 3 that are my co-2nd favs and recent c/d times, One Hart might also be better on a faster surface, my money will be riding on EXCESSABLE 9/2 who likes track the leaders and then stay on the stronger at the finish and the jockey has a good 22% win ratio on the stables older horses. 

Excessable 5/1 4th -1pt 

Total -1pt

SOUTHWELL 4.25 

This race is poor even for a class 6 stakes race and there's only one horse with a recorded time over this c/d in recent times, 2020/21, Brandy Station destroyed its field last time out but as for normal around here lately the time was slow and its best time on Tapeta wouldn't quite be enough to win this race so I will be having a small wager on RED STRIPES 6/1 who can lead but has also been known to stay on strongly at the finish if the leaders fade. 

Red Stripe 6/1 4th -1pt

Total -1pt

CHELMSFORD 7.50 

A six runner race where half of them could lead and they may well set the race up for one of those finishing well nearing the finish, of the front runners Global Prospector may do best as its my 3rd top rated, in 2nd top spot is The Nosey Parker but this one hasn't any form at this course as its best time was at Wolverhampton on a different surface, so I will be backing *JUMIRA BRIDGE 6/1 hoping it can finish strongly here and pick them all up nearing the finish.

*NR 

Total on the day -5pts

4:40 Southwell Racing Tips (9th March)

SOUTHWELL 4.40 

The surface at Southwell is going to be replaced with Tapeta in the spring/summer and how slow it is running at the moment the sooner the better, in fact I am very dubious about betting here but hopefully I've found a nugget in this race. Only eight runners with half of them being known to lead before so it should be a true run affair, Passional 13/8 will I think be the favourite, its two previous runs over this course and distance have only produced slow times but that might be down to the surface so it cannot be discounted, A Go Go 7/1 has a fast time from Lingfield and likes to lead but once again its two runs over this course and distance have resulted in a slow time but i think this surface doesn't really suit it, Spirit Power 5/1 from stall two could lead and gain control of the rails and could make the frame but isn't an each way price, the trainer Anthony Brittain has two entrants in this race and looking at the tissue prices it looks as though Qaaraat 7/2 will be the shorter priced horse of his pair but I will be siding with his other runner DRAKEFELL 9/2 who likes to track the leaders and then run on at the finish and i think the 5lb claiming could swing things in this ones favour. 

Drakefell 9/2 3rd -1pt

Total -1pt

SOUTHWELL 7.40 

Only one natural front running type in JAZZ LEGEND 8/1 and is weighted to finish in a dead-heat with Owhatanight who beat it by three quarters of a length last time out but there is another 3lbs between them here and the latter is drawn widest of all so will need a perfect run to catch the front runner so has to be my selection, Dirchill 11/2 has been known to lead if nothing else wants to but that wont happen here although it is well housed in stall one but needs to improve time wise to win this race, I think Everkyllachey 5/1 might be better over shorter and Secret Treaties may need further but the rest of the runners, Dylans Lad 6/1, Moveonup 14/1 and Paddy Power 18/1 all look capable of running a good race and could be battling for the places but I am hoping my selection can lead all the way here and this time hold on for the win.

Jazz Legend 9/1 8th -1pt 

Total on the day -2pts

4:10 Newcastle Racing Tips & Lay Bets (15th January)

NEWCASTLE 4.10 

When I put something up as a lay it is always a single figure price and admittedly as i get most of these things right they do drift and it is up to you whether you think laying a bigger priced horse is value or not. There is only 2 known front running types in this race and one of them, (Rockley Point) I would look to lay as it might be outclassed here as it usually runs/wins in class 6 races and the jockeys record, 0-10, doesn't inspire confidence, Suwaan has a time from back in 2018 that would make it my 2nd top rated and its not been in good form lately, Tathmeen could make the frame and its won 5 ties from 12 runs over this c/d so could at least make the frame, my money will be riding on LONGROOM 16/1 (EW) who won 3 races ago over this c/d, its next run was a false start and it was a spent force for the re-run, last time out it couldn't get to the front but in the make-up of this race it could lead and if doing so could prove hard to catch and luckily its an each way price. 

Longroom 20/1 5th (-2pts)

Lay bet: Rockley Point +1pt

Total: -1pt

SOUTHWELL 6.00 

There is quite a few lightly raced 4yo’ in this race so any stakes will be kept low, one of them Kits Allanah now in stall 2,improved dramatically last time out when leading before fading to 4th at Chelmsford and this slower surface might work in its favour and it might spoil the hopes of my selection JAZZ LEGEND 10/1  (EW) who is also a front running type luckily it has got the inside berth and if getting to the front it could prove hard to catch and at the price it has to be given as each way wager, I will look to lay (Archimedes) who is better over a shorter distance, two others Send In The Clouds and Fenix will join the list if in single figure prices as neither have shown much form, the 10yo Kommander Kirkup is still useful on its day but there are few and far between nowadays but never say never but it isn't a great race so wont take much winning. 

Jazz Legend 10/1 (EW) (+12.5pts)

Lay bet: Archimedes +1pt

Total: +13.5pts 

SOUTHWELL 7.00 

Lets start with something to lay (Heartstar) who is 5th top on my figures but this doesn't look to be its favoured surface, another to lay could be (Leo Minor) who stays on this distance but maybe needs further plus its held by on recent form by Gospel and that was a slow run affair for either of them unless the surface was much much slower than usual (that just might be the reason because they say the life of the surface is coming to an end and they are going to resurface the course this spring/summer and they are going to use the Tapeta surface which will be the end of fibresand in this country) I will be siding with RED STRIPES 11/2 who is a front running type and it could lead all the way here being my top rated on recent c/d times and 2nd top overall just behind MARWARI 3/1 who recorded the races highest speed figure at Newcastle in 2020, this will be its 1st run at this course but if taking to this surface it could go well so I will have to back both selections.

Marwari 5/1 2nd (-1pt)

Red Stripes 11/2 3rd (-1pt)

Lay bets: Heartstar +1pt, Leo Minor +1pt

Total: 0pts

Total on the day: +12.5pts

3:50 Southwell Racing Tips (10th January)

SOUTHWELL 3.50 

SIR RODNEYREDBLOOD 11/2 has been known to lead but it hasn't any form over this c/d and I have a feeling this surface wont suit it so not sure if it can lead here but is my 3rd top rated horse so could make the frame if taking to this course but at the price I would lay not to win. 

NICK VEDDER 2/1 has only slow times to its name even when winning last time out, it usually stays on from off the pace but not for me in this race but it does have a positive looking jockey booking but at the price I might risk laying it. 

AFRO BLUE 18/1 this one hasn't run at this course before and is a maiden after 9 previous runs and I cannot see this surface being to it suiting. 

RAYYAN 3/1 once again this one hasn't any c/d form to its name and only has a slow time at this distance from Newcastle and looks as though five furlongs suits it much better so the price looks way to short and i will look to lay it.

LEO DAVINCI 12/1 this one is a maiden after having 9 runs although none of them were at this course but this one races as though a longer distance would suit it better. 

MAGNIFICIA 11/1 has an average speed figure over this c/d but in its favour is that it is versatile when it comes to racing tactics and stall one is also a bonus so could make the frame, the jockeys 1-35 record puts me off so I would lay the win part.

JAZZ LEGEND 8/1 this horse likes to front run and its best time from 2019 could see it leading all the way to victory but it didn't hit top form in 2020 but the horse has won 3 times and been placed 3 times from 12 previous c/d runs. 

ARCHIMEDES 25/1 is my top rated on just 2020 c/d times but this distance does stretch its stamina if the early pace is fast and its recent form leaves a lot to be desired but I have a feeling it could spring back to form anytime without warning but it is now entering the veteran stage of racing. 

SUMMARY: I have split this race into four that I would give virtually no chance of winning but never say never, Magnificia could go well at the front from stall 1 as could Sir Rodneyredblood from stall 8 as they are my 4th and 3rd top rated horses, Archimedes is 2nd top but not in form lately, I'm hoping JAZZ LEGEND 8/ 1 can lead here and if getting to the front it could prove hard to catch.

Jazz Legend 10/1 6th (-1pt)

Total on the day -1pt

5:15 Southwell Racing Tips (11th December)

SOUTHWELL 5.15 

A nice competitive class 4 race, Crosse Fire might be the one that sets the pace and could do enough to make the frame, Dark Shot has could lead if nothing else wants to but could go well if contesting the lead or just sitting behind the leaders but only if it can reproduce its best from 2019 but this years times would leave it a little short, I will be going with 2 selections in this race, MULZIM 5/1 will be running on at the finish and has good trainer/jockey stats to back up its claims as does my 2nd selection BIRKENHEAD 9/2 who usually tracks the leaders and then stays on strongly at the finish. 

Birkenhead 9/2 2nd (-1pt)

Mulzin 6/1 8th (-1pt)

Total: -2pts

SOUTHWELL 7.15 

This class 6 race is quite poor even for the class, I would look to lay (Tilsworth Rose + Dark Side Dream + Alyaaf + Bluella) if they are in single figure prices, the early pace looks likely to be set by WAQAAS 12/1 (EW) who hasn't any surface form but looking at its turf form it should be ok on this surface but I will also be backing ARCHIMEDES 10/1 (EW) who is usually held up for a late surge but my stakes won't be at full strength in this race but small each way punts may prove profitable. 

Abandoned 

SOUTHWELL 7.45 

This 2nd division looks even worse, First Excel could go well from stall 1 although its versatile with its racing tactics and has been known to lead if nothing else wants to but there is a natural front runner in the race but could still make the frame, my 3rd top rated Badger Berry should be staying on at the finish but maybe too late for the win but could make the frame, Le Manege Enchant is my 2nd top rated and likes to track the leaders and then stay on dourly at the finish but i am hoping that JAZZ LEGEND 4/1 can lead from the off and once ahead it could prove hard to peg back.

Abandoned

Total on the day: -2pts

4:45 Southwell Racing Tips & Lay Bets (29th October)

SOUTHWELL 4.45 

I can see a few to lay in this race (Good Earth + Time To Reason + Hawk In The Sky) if they are in single figure prices, Onebaba is my 3rd top-rated so could make the frame but there is a few lightly raced sorts in the race and it won't take much winning.

JAZZ LEGEND 33/1 (EW) is my top-rated using its best time from 2019 but it hasn't shown much in its 3 runs this year but it is the only known frontrunning type in the field and with an easy lead it could get back to winning ways but the jockeys 0-9 record for this stable puts me off a little else it would have been my only selection but at the price, I will have to have an each-way wager on it, I will also be backing.

GORGEOUS GENERAL 10/3 who has the top figure of the others and it was from this year and the trainer does well at this course. 

Generous General 10/3 3rd (-1pt)

Jazz Legend 33/1 Unp (-2pt)

Lay bets: Good Earth +1pt, Time To Reason +1pt, Hawk In The Sky +1pt

Total: 0pts

CHELMSFORD 5.00

There's 3 known frontrunners in this race and Edge Of The Bay is my 3rd top-rated on a 2020 time with Sir Hector in 2nd top spot using its best 2019 time so they should ensure there's a fast early pace but if INDIAN PURSUIT 5/2 can reproduce its best time which was recorded this year it would be winning a little cosily but I think it will be the favourite but I cannot find anything I would back against it. 

Indian Pursuit 5/2 1st (+2pts) (Betfair SP 2,22)

Total +2.5pts

SOUTHWELL 6.15 

Half of the 12 runners have been known to lead before so it will be a fast and furious dash and i have a feeling they might battle too hard and then fade nearing the finish, Crosse Fire can record fast times but doesn't win in this class of race but could make the frame, Dark Shot is versatile with its racing tactics and has a fast c/d time from 2019 to its name, Astro Jakk and King Of Stars are another couple of possible leaders and have times that would put them in the mix, my money will be riding on SAMOVAR 16/1 (EW) and hopefully it will be an each-way price, it is 2nd top on just 2020 c/d times, just 1lb below top spot, and 3rd top overall still only by 1lb, so if they do fade at the finish it could be the one to prosper and must have an each-way chance if repeating its best and the win isn't out of the question. 

Samovar 16/1 -2pt

Total: -2pts

SOUTHWELL 7.15 

Not the worst of races even for a class 6 affair, of the 13 runners there's 3 known front-running types and Red Stripes and Archimedes are both in my top 5 ratings, Loulin has a time from 2019 that would see it in the mix but they could all be battling for a place, I've got joint top-rated horses but Under Curfew recorded its fastest time at Lingfield which is a different surface so I will be backing ARZAAK 5/1 who recorded its best time which was over this c/d and this year which is always a positive.

Arzaak 5/1 (+5pts) (Betfair SP 6.29)

Total: +5pts

Total on the day +5.5pts