3:20 Lingfield Racing Tips (22nd December)

LINGFIELD 3.20 

A field of 9 for this class 5 sprint where I think the early pace will be set by Swiss Pride 7/2 who is my joint 3rd top rated and finished 2nd last time out and might have to be satisfied with a place again here but it could be very close near the finish but at the weights LILKIAN 6/1 should reverse the form, this one may have finished 5th that day but it was less than 2 lengths behind. My 2nd top rated horse is Daphne May who will be staying on at the finish and could make the frame. I might look to lay Shalaa Asker 15/2 and I'm Mable 14/1 if they are value to lay as they can both struggle to stay the distance when there's a fast early gallop. 

Lilkian 6/1 5th -1pt 

Lay bets Shalaa Asker +1pt

Total 0pts 

SOUTHWELL 5.00 

A full house of 14 runners for this class 6 dash on this straight 5 furlong course but I can only see a couple of horses that like to front run, Procivity 33/1 is one of them but has shown very little worthwhile form so I can see Pepper Streak 7/1 who is my 3rd top rated using a rating recorded on the Polytrack surface at Lingfield setting the pace and it could do enough from the front to make the frame if it takes to this Tapeta surface. The top weight Sir Gregory 6/1 has never won over this distance and may get outpaced in the early stages before trying to stay on at the finish, its not in my top 4 ratings so could struggle and I will look to lay it. Tantastic is my 4th top rated and can be held up for a late run or it can track the leaders, sitting in 2nd top spot is Basholo 20/1 in stall 10 which might not be ideal as I think those drawn middle to low have a slight advantage but at the price might be worth a small each way punt. My money will be riding on MARWARI 7/2 who is my top rated on Tapeta ratings from elsewhere and top on just course and distance ratings, the 7lb claiming apprentice is having their 1st ride for the stable and their claim could swings even further into its favour while the trainer has a 32% win ratio at this course with their older horses I'm not a fan of backing favourites and i thought this race would have been five to one the field.

Marwari 7/2 6th -1pt 

Lay bet Sir Gregory +1pt 

Total 0pts

Total on the day 0pts

5:03 Southwell Racing Tips (14th August)

SOUTHWELL 5.03 

Class 6 race with 11 runners over 5 furlongs with a couple of known front running types amongst them, the five at the bottom of the handicap all look likely to be double figure priced outsiders and look to have very little, never say never, chance of winning this race, Jet Set Go, Big Impact and Ustath may all prefer a longer distance to show their true worth, which leaves me with 3 runners, The Tron comes out in 3rd top spot and usually stays on at the finish over this distance and may stay on too late for the win here, Scale Force sits in 2nd top spot and also stays on at the finish but my top rated MARWARI 11/4 is the one that I think, hope, sets the pace to the race and if getting to the front it could prove too hard to catch, its top rated on course and distance time since this course changed to the Tapeta surface and top using other Tapeta ratings but it was from 2020 but in its defense it hasn't run over this surface at either Newcastle or Wolverhampton since then and has good trainer, 33% win ratio and jockey 19% win ratio stats with the stables older horses. 

Marwari 10/3 5th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

PONTEFRACT 5.20 

Class 5 race over 6 furlongs with 9 runners and 4, Late Arrival, Cottam lane, Dandy Spirit and Macho Pride, known front running types amongst the field and it looks a race where I will have to go with one front running type and one that comes from off the pace to cover the angles, Mostallim might be worth taking on here as a longer distance might show it in a better light, Late Arrival and Hello Zabeel are my joint 4th top rated horses, Mutanaaseq is my 3rd top rated and likes to track the leaders, I have joint top rated horses MACHO PRIDE 11/2 who being a front running type could be hard to catch if getting to the front but DREAM TOGETHER 7/1 likes to track the pacesetters and likes the good to firm ground and will need a perfect run to catch the leader but this one has the better trainer/jockey stats of the pair and I will be backing them both.

Macho Pride 10/1 4th -1pt 

Dream Together 10/3 7th -1pt 

Total -2pts 

Total on the day -3pts

4:10 Newcastle Racing Tips & Lay Bets (15th January)

NEWCASTLE 4.10 

When I put something up as a lay it is always a single figure price and admittedly as i get most of these things right they do drift and it is up to you whether you think laying a bigger priced horse is value or not. There is only 2 known front running types in this race and one of them, (Rockley Point) I would look to lay as it might be outclassed here as it usually runs/wins in class 6 races and the jockeys record, 0-10, doesn't inspire confidence, Suwaan has a time from back in 2018 that would make it my 2nd top rated and its not been in good form lately, Tathmeen could make the frame and its won 5 ties from 12 runs over this c/d so could at least make the frame, my money will be riding on LONGROOM 16/1 (EW) who won 3 races ago over this c/d, its next run was a false start and it was a spent force for the re-run, last time out it couldn't get to the front but in the make-up of this race it could lead and if doing so could prove hard to catch and luckily its an each way price. 

Longroom 20/1 5th (-2pts)

Lay bet: Rockley Point +1pt

Total: -1pt

SOUTHWELL 6.00 

There is quite a few lightly raced 4yo’ in this race so any stakes will be kept low, one of them Kits Allanah now in stall 2,improved dramatically last time out when leading before fading to 4th at Chelmsford and this slower surface might work in its favour and it might spoil the hopes of my selection JAZZ LEGEND 10/1  (EW) who is also a front running type luckily it has got the inside berth and if getting to the front it could prove hard to catch and at the price it has to be given as each way wager, I will look to lay (Archimedes) who is better over a shorter distance, two others Send In The Clouds and Fenix will join the list if in single figure prices as neither have shown much form, the 10yo Kommander Kirkup is still useful on its day but there are few and far between nowadays but never say never but it isn't a great race so wont take much winning. 

Jazz Legend 10/1 (EW) (+12.5pts)

Lay bet: Archimedes +1pt

Total: +13.5pts 

SOUTHWELL 7.00 

Lets start with something to lay (Heartstar) who is 5th top on my figures but this doesn't look to be its favoured surface, another to lay could be (Leo Minor) who stays on this distance but maybe needs further plus its held by on recent form by Gospel and that was a slow run affair for either of them unless the surface was much much slower than usual (that just might be the reason because they say the life of the surface is coming to an end and they are going to resurface the course this spring/summer and they are going to use the Tapeta surface which will be the end of fibresand in this country) I will be siding with RED STRIPES 11/2 who is a front running type and it could lead all the way here being my top rated on recent c/d times and 2nd top overall just behind MARWARI 3/1 who recorded the races highest speed figure at Newcastle in 2020, this will be its 1st run at this course but if taking to this surface it could go well so I will have to back both selections.

Marwari 5/1 2nd (-1pt)

Red Stripes 11/2 3rd (-1pt)

Lay bets: Heartstar +1pt, Leo Minor +1pt

Total: 0pts

Total on the day: +12.5pts