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Friday, 5 February 2021

12:35 Lingfield Racing Tips & Lay Bets (6th February)

LINGFIELD 12.35 

Only 7 runners but luckily there is a couple of front running types in the race, I will look to lay (One Hart 5/2) if its a single figure price as it might prefer further to show its best and I am surprised how short it is in the betting, my 3rd top rated is Kondratiev Wave and is one of those that could lead and from stall 3 could gain control of the rails but the jockeys 0-13 record on this trainers horses is a little off-putting, the top weight Count Otto will probably be the favourite (13/8) after winning last time out and comes out 2nd best on my figure so could go well here but it is too short for me to be interested so i will be putting my faith and money on BOWLING RUSSIAN 11/2 who normally needs one run to gain fitness after a break so could be primed here, the jockey booking looks a positive with a win ratio of over 40% plus the horse is 2 from 2 over this c/d. 

Bowling Russian 13/2 6th (-1pt)

Lay bet: One Hart +1pt

Total: 0pts

LINGFIELD 1.11 

WOW WOW!! 

What a race. 

A 6-furlong Listed with nine runners with two known front runners and every one of them has a positive trainer and/or jockey stats. 

For a prize of 17k they should all be trying.

Fizzy Feet a front runner who is well housed in stall 2 won last time out but I'm not 100% sure it's up to this class but I am not sure either way.

Burmese Waltz 16/1 has a very good jockey stat but it hasn't been up to it with its last 3 runs at this class after winning a class 3 handicap but it is an each way price and could feasibly make the frame. 

Tinto has decent jockey stats but hasn't won in this class before but did finish 2nd over this c/d in a Listed race in 2019. 

Royal Birth has the odd fast time at this distance but most of its good speed figures are over 5 furlongs.

Summerghand 7/2 hasn't shown much time wise since 2019 and one I would look to lay if it stays a single figure price. 

Mum's Tipple 15/2 is the other possible pacesetter but hasn't ran on the AW before but does have a fast time over this trip on g/f ground at York so could go well but isn't quite what I would call an each way price.

Misty Grey has never ran over this distance on this surface but has a fast time from Wolverhampton but that is a slower surface which might have helped its cause and it might need further to show its best on this faster surface.

Exalted Angel 16/1 hasn't any course form or distance form on any AW track but has 2 wins, 5 places from 8 AW runs elsewhere so could be dangerous but all its at shorter trips and its not fancied in the betting. 

ABERAMA GOLD 15/2 hasn't got as good trainer/jockey stats as some of its rivals but it does have the fastest time recorded in 2020 and has posted a time this year which was only 5lbs below that and if back to its best it has got the stall 1 draw so it ought to be able to get a position on the rails about a length behind the leaders ready to pounce in the home straight and could get back to winning ways here.

Aberama Gold 9/2 4th (-1pt)

Summerghand +1pt

Total 0pts

Total on the day: 0pts

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