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Saturday 6 February 2021

1:35 Southwell Racing Tips & Lay (7th February)


I can find two runners who like to lead, I can find 2 runners, Pedestal and Essaka that I would like to lay but i expect they will all be double prices so of no value to lay the win part but might be worth laying not to make the frame, I can find 4 horses that could go well here, Dark Side Dream who comes out joint 2nd best on recent c/d speed figures but the race it won last time out had a slow early pace and the 2nd from that day could reverse the form in this race and is only joint 4th top on overall figures and in my opinion poor value at 9/4, Blackcurrant 9/1 has only produced slow times from its two previous runs over this c/d but the jockey is 2-4 for the stable so maybe they are expecting a good run here and could make the frame, Red Allure 6/1 ran well when finishing 2nd last time out but that was a slow run race so the form might not be reliable but is a possible front runner and could do enough to make the frame but the trainer is 0-26 at this course while the jockey does well on the stables older horses but isn't an each way price, Bluella 6/1 comes out 2nd best overall and that is using a 2020 time but didn't run well in its last race while it is a c/d winner which is always a positive and could make the frame here if on a going day but not an each way price in my eyes, my money will be riding on ARCAVALLO 7/2 who led last time out until caught and beaten by today's top weight, it is 3lbs better off here and may have got the fractions wrong when leading in that race and if going slightly faster here, which it might be forced to do by Red Allure it could this time thwart the late run of the top weight and hold on for victory. 


For a class 6 affair this is a nice looking race, firstly I will mention (Qaaraat 3/1) who has won over this distance but not at this course and it might find it a bit too far on this slower surface and i will look to lay it and i think it will be to the fore of the betting, there is 2 more I would look to lay but I expect they will outsiders in this race, Ustaith a previous c/d winner could try to set the pace and if? getting to the front from stall 7 it could do enough to make the frame but is 11/2 value for an each way bet, in my opinion the answer is no but i know some people do bet each way at the price as you get your money back or a very small profit if making the frame, my 3rd top rated is Sir Rodneyredblood 9/2 using a Lingfield time but its recent c/d time is good enough for 2nd top spot but thats only good enough for 4th top overall, Barrington 7/1 has a time from Lingfield in 2020 that would make it my top rated by 2lbs, it hasn't run over this c/d before so not sure what to expect and from stall 8 it might need some luck in running, I will be pinning my hopes on PEARL OF QATAR 3/1 who is my top rated on recent times and only 2lbs below top spot then add on that its versatile with its racing tactics which does include leading and from the stall 3 draw i am hoping that will the the tactics deployed here and if getting to the front and control of the rails it ought to be hard to catch, the trainers record is 2-9 and the jockey has a 27% win rate for the stable so it looks like they are expecting a big run and hopefully one place better than its last two runs.

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