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Tuesday, 2 February 2021

4:25 Lingfield Racing Tip (3rd February)

LINGFIELD 4.25 

COMEATCHOO 9/4 won last time out at Wolverhampton but that was over 6 furlongs and this drop in distance may not suit it as its win record at this course is 0-5 but has been placed twice and may stay on too late to win this race and it might be worth taking the risk and laying it at the price.

HEY HO LETS GO 7/2 has relatively slow times over this c/d from 3 runs where it was placed twice plus its no wins, 6 placed efforts from 17 runs, the jockeys record is 0-6 for this stable and the trainers record is only 7% winners another possible lay but this race looks full of potential lays.

THEGREYVTRAIN 8/1 the trainers win ratio is only 8% while the jockey is 0-2 for this stable, its won twice from 20 races on AW tracks but over this c/d its record is no wins or placed efforts from 3 runs. 

TOP BOY 14/1 the trainers win ratio is 10% but the jockey is 0-5 for the stable, this distance is a bit too short for it and its last win was back in 2018.

TWICE AS LIKELY 11/2 the trainers win ratio is 12% while the jockey is 16% for all rides for this stable and its best time is good enough for top spot on recent, 2020/21 c/d runs. 

SHANI 25/1 the jockey record is a dire 1-75 for this stable while the trainers win ratio is 5% on the stables older horses and only one percent higher overall but is versatile when it comes to racing tactics and that does include leading and its one of only two in the field that have led before.

KYLLUKEY 11/1 this one hasn't got good trainer/jockey stats plus it think its better over a longer distance and its best time from way back in 2017 wouldn't see it making the frame.

MERCERS 12/1 the trainers stats are 2-99 at this course while the 7lb claiming apprentice jockey is having their 1st ride for the stable but the horse has won 3 races from 18 attempts over this c/d.

BLUELLA 9/1 this one hasn't any form on this surface but its best from Southwell would make it my top rated but has only one once from its previous 20 runs on AW courses but could have some degree of a chance to at least make the frame if taking to this surface. 

HURRICANE ALERT 100/1 is versatile with its racing tactics and could attempt to set the pace here with only one other known horse to front run before but its best time was from 2019 but has 2 wins with 4 placed efforts from 18 AW runs. 

SUMMARY: Believe it or not I can find more than one negative against 8 of the 10 runners and a single negative against Bluella who hasn't run on this surface before but not sure its a negative but its win ration on the AW is 1-20 which doesn't inspire confidence which leaves me with just one horse to back in the shape of TWICE AS LIKELY 11/2 who has only had 2 previous runs over this c/d before and it won one of them so looks more than capable of winning this race.

Underlined denotes lay bet 

Twice As Likely 6/1 4th (-1pt)

Total on the day -1pt

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