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Monday, 1 February 2021

5:40 Southwell Racing Tips & Lay Bets (2nd February)


SOUTHWELL 5.40 

A field of 8 with 3 of them been known to lead, I would lay Triple Spear if a single figure price and Knowing Glance may need further but this slower surface could help its cause, Samovar is my 3rd top rated and a possible pacesetter but stall 8 isn't ideal over this 6 furlong trip, in stall 1 there is ANOTHER ANGEL 16/1 (EW) who has been known to lead before and at the price I will have an each way bet on it, it hasn't any previous c/d form but has a time from Newcastle that makes it my top rated overall and the trainer has an 18% win ratio at this course, the bottom weight here, EXCESSABLE 6/1 likes to track the leaders and is top rated on just recent c/d times and that's enough for 2nd top spot overall, the trainer has a 20% win record here and the jockey is 21% winners on the stables older horses so i will go with the selections to cover the angles. 

Excessable 6/1 1st (+6pts) (Betfair - to be updated)
Another Angel 16/1 (EW) 3rd (-2pt)

Total: +4pts

SOUTHWELL 6.10 

A class 2 race with nearly 12k to the winner and a poor turnout of just 5 runners even then its not an easy race to analyse, (Lomu 6/1) who might find the distance a bit too far in a fast run race so I would look to lay it, and GABRIAL THE DEVIL 5/2 will look to set the pace and if the latter gets to the front it could prove hard to catch as it is top rated on recent c/d times which is always a positive but its only good enough for 3rd top spot overall, Brian The Snail is 2nd top rated using a Lingfield time and this is its debut on this surface and would need to improve for the switch of surface to win this race, top rated is SHALLOW HAL 10/3 who won for me last time out and has been found a good chance to follow up here and has good trainer/jockey stats making it look like connections are expecting it to win here but i will back them both to cover the angles. 

Shallow Hal 10/3 2nd (-1pt)
Gabrial The Devil 5/2 3rd (-1pt)

Lay bet: Lomu +1pt

Total: -1pts

SOUTHWELL 6.40 

A decent field of 9 for this class 4 race but surprisingly for a 5 furlong dash there's only one known front running type in the race but Agent Shiftwell is in stall 8 which isn't ideal and may use up a fair bit of energy to get across from there and would need to improve a few spots if leading or steal the race from the front, Prince Of Rome is my top rated using a time from Lingfield in 2019 and this is its debut on this surface but the trainers 0-26 record here makes me think its got another target in its sights, Bellevarde has a time from Chelmsford that would make it my 2nd top rated overall but maybe better over further and this slower surface its 1st try over this c/d, might help its cause but isn't fancied in the betting, my money will be riding on MULZIM 3/1 who is my 3rd top rated overall but is top rated on recent c/d times recorded in 2020, it has good trainer/jockey stats which is always a positive and its c/d record is 4 wins and 2 places from just 7 runs proving its really at home here.

Mulzin 3/1 1st (+3pts) (Betfair SP to be updated)

Total: +3pts

Total: +6pts

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