2:25 Southwell Racing Tips (23rd February)

SOUTHWELL 2.25 

A class four eleven runner sprint with 3 known front running types amongst them, both Intervention 6/1 and Shalaa Asker 11/2 who won last time out, have never won at class 4 level and are not in my top 4 ratings so maybe worth taking on but only if of value to do so, Watermelon Sugar 25/1 is my 4th top rated and can be held up or track the leaders and if able to reproduce its best Tapeta rating from last year could be worth a small each way punt, Churchill Bay 33/1 recorded one fast time at Wolverhampton last year but that is now looking like a fluke time when it got towed along in a fast run race, Melly Flyer 16/1 along with Intervention will ensure there's a fast early gallop but if WALKING ON CLOUDS 11/4, who has finished first or second in its last 5 starts gets to the front it could lead all the way plus it has good trainer, at this course, and jockey, for this stable, stats and could add another winning run to its name. 

Walking On Clouds 3/1 3rd -1pt 

Lay bets Intervention +1pt, Shalaa Asker +1pt 

Total +1pt 

SOUTHWELL 4.10 

A 9 runner class 4 dash where a third of the field have been known to lead before but it looks most likely that they will be setting it up for something finishing well from off the pace as Lihou 13/2, Murbih 11/2 nor Bert Kibbler 7/2 are in my top 4 ratings. Micks Spirit 11/2 might be better off racing on the Polytrack surface while Dalby Forest 5/1 might prefer a longer distance so both might be worth laying if of value to do so. Pop Dancer who is usually held up in midfield or at the back of the pack is my 4th top rated just 2lb’s below Glorious Rio in 3rd top spot so either could make the frame. MISS BELLADONNA 8/1 (EW) is my top rated and seems to be an improving 4 year old so could take the rise in class in its stride but the jockeys record of 0-25 for the stable makes me wary else otherwise it might have been my sole bet in this race but STONE OF DESTINY 9/1 (EW) who admittedly hasn't shown much recently is dropped in class to run in this race and the trainer and jockey stats have been good at this course since the change of surface so might have slipped under the radar and will be better value that it ought to be and if a double figure price it will be an each way wager. 

Stone Of Destiny 14/1 4th -2pts 

Miss Belladonna 8/1 6th -2pts 

Lay bet Dalby Forest +1pt

Total -3pts 

SOUTHWELL 4.45 

One of those 0-50 stakes races where they all carry the same weight, there are only 2 runners rated 50 those being The Tron 13/2 and Ubahha 9/1 but I think they are both better suited to a longer distance but they are my 4th and 3rd top rated but I think they might finish a bit too late to catch the leader in this race but could be worth each way bets. Rockley Point 6/1 is one of the two front running types but sits outside my top 4 ratings so may not stay there long enough to win or even make the frame unless allowed an easy lead where it keeps some stamina in reserve for a finishing kick but is shorter in price that I was expecting. Stroxx 9/2 is my 2nd top rated but this horse is becoming frustrating as it has had 37 races, 16 on an All-Weather track, where it has made the frame in 11 of those races but is still a maiden but has been knocking on the door to the winners enclosure recently and I am sure it will break its duck one day but i will be pinning my hopes in this race on MOVEONUP 14/1 (EW) who is the other known front running type in this race so I'm hoping that in this race it can lead all the way for another victory but as always at a double figure price has to be done as an each way wager. 

Moveonup 22/1 Unp -2pts 

Total -2pts 

NEWCASTLE 8.00 

A field of 8 for this dash but there isn't any known front running types in this race which always makes things a lot more difficult to analyse. Kraken Power 13/8 seems better over further and on the Polytrack surface so maybe one to lay especially at such a short price, Kath's Toyboy may also be better over a longer distance so maybe another one to lay but as its my joint 3rd top rated maybe not, Aikido is my other 3rd top rated horse and they are are both just rated 1lb lower than Phoenix Star who sits in 2nd top spot. My top rated is NELLIE FRENCH 16/1 (EW) who can be held up or track the leaders before staying on strongly at the finish and a repeat of its best rating from earlier this month would see it winning this race a shade cosily and at such a generous price it has to be done as a small each way wager. 

Nellie French 16/1 1st +19.2pts

Lay Kraken Power +1pt 

Total 20.2pts

Total on the day +16.2pts

5:30 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (7th March)

WOLVERHAMPTON 5.30 

There's 3 sprints but not a lot to write about individual horses so I will go with 3 summary accounts and just give the essentials for each race. I have a feeling the top weight Abduction 4/1 might be the favourite for this race after winning last time out over this distance at Lingfield where it recorded a good rating which would see it with a chance here but it form on this Tapeta surface hasn't been up to that level so I think it might be vulnerable and might be worth taking a risk and laying it, another to lay could be Some Nightmare if its a single figure price it needs to improve a bit time wise the jockey is 1-37 for the stable on the AW tracks and the trainer hasn't had a winner in the last 2 weeks, El Hombre and Royal Advice could go well if reproducing their best ratings but I will be hoping that WATER OF LEITH 7/1 from stall 8 can get a nice tow into the race with fast starters in stalls 9 and 11 and gain a good position from which to attack late on in the race, the trainers record for the last 2 weeks is 6-22 which isn't bad and could be added to in this race. 

Water Of Leith 7/1 3rd -1pt 

Lay bet Some Nightmare +1pt 

Total 0pts

WOLVERHAMPTON 7.00 Div I

The 1st division of one of the low grade stakes races for horses rated 50 or lower and they all carry the same weight so Mr Pc and Nellie French who are the only ones rated 50 should have a small advantage and it might pay dividends with having a small bet on NELLIE FRENCH 3/1 just for that reason alone as its my joint 2nd top rated on recent c/d speed figures but the price isn't really much value, Qaaraat 3/1 can run a decent race when in the mood but lately its ability to win a race seems to have deserted it and at that price I would look to lay it but if it goes off around the 5/1 mark then I wouldn't be laying it, the top weighted horse BILLY DYLAN 14/1 has a time from 2021 that makes it my top rated but I am not sure if that was a bit of a fluke time where it got carried along in a fast run race but might be worth having a small each way covering bet just in case it can reproduce that speed figure. 

Billy Dillan 14/1 2nd +1.8pts 

Nellie French 4/1 6th -1pt 

Total +0.8pts

WOLVERHAMPTON 7.30 Div II 

This division isn't much better, there are 2 horses in this race rated 50, Raabeh and San Juan, the former won last time out so I expect it will be to the fore in the betting and might not represent value, I think both Dirchill 3/1 and Giant Steps 5/1 might need a longer distance to show their best so may be worth laying at shortish prices I have tipped up Rockley Point on more than one occasion and it has been poor for quite some time now and if I leave it alone here its bound to spring back to form so maybe worth having a small covering bet especially if its a big price, most of my money will be riding on SAN JUAN 8/1 who is my 3rd top rated on recent c/d speed figures and the best rating for those that have run on the new Southwell Tapeta surface. 

San Juan 8/1 5th -1pt 

Lay bets Dirchill -2.75pts, Giant Steps +1pt

Total -2.75pts

Total on the day -1.95pts

4:25 Wolverhampton Racing Tip (15th February)

WOLVERHAMPTON 4.25 

CHARLEMAINE 22/1 is 0-3 on AW tracks but hasn't any course form while its 2 runs at this distance at Newcastle didn't produce a speed figure that registered on my graphs and I expect it will be a double figure price.

ISLAND MEMORY 14/1 the trainers 1-49 win ratio here puts me off and this horse hasn't shown much in its 3 runs but all over longer distances and I'm surprised to see it drop in distance for its handicap debut and it isn't fancied in the betting.

AMAZING AMAYA 3/1 has poor single figure trainer/jockeys stats but has won once from its 5 runs over this c/d so it could make the frame in this race being my 2nd top rated on recent, 2020/21, c/d times.

TRUE HERO 9/4 could try to lead here but it does have 2 other front running types drawn on its inside so must make sure its not taken too wide round the bends, it won last time out at Southwell, I'm not sure if the surface was very slow that day but the time certainly was plus its sole run over this c/d also produced a slow time as are its times from Newcastle but after winning comfortably last time out it could go well here but a bit short in the betting for a horse with unanswered questions over this c/d. 

RED STRIPES 9/1 one of the possible pacesetters and has the plum draw in stall 1 but its had 35 previous c/d runs where it was placed 12 times but no wins to its name so I would look today the win part and could get shorter in running before fading close home. 

NELLIE FRENCH 7/2 is my top rated on recent c/d times and this ones best time was recorded this year proving it is in good form and has won twice from just 3 previous c/d runs. 

VALENTINE BLUES 11/1 has poor trainer/jockey stats although the jockey has only ridden once before for this stable, it races as though further would be better over 6 furlongs so I think it will get outpaced here and I expect it will be an outsider. 

DUBAI PARADISE 9/1 the trainer has a 11% win ratio here but the jockeys 0-16 is a bit concerning, its held on form by Amazing Amaya and I'm not sure this surface suits it producing slow times in all 4 of its c/d runs and worth laying at a single figure price. 

SUPERSEDED 22/1 is the 3rd horse that might try to lead, its best time which was produced in 2019 might see it make the frame but has only produced slow times from its 3 recent c/d runs and in total its not won from all 9 of its c/d runs. 

TAN 33/1 also has a good time from 2019 but its 2 runs over this c/d since then have only produced slow times but the trainer has a poor 1% win ratio with their older horses and its only 2% on all ages and will be a big outsider in this race. 

DIAMOND DREAM 66/1 has only poor form to its name and hasn't made the frame in 9 AW races and the trainers record at this course is 0-24 so a big outsider. 

SUMMARY: Quite a poor race even for class 6 standard, I can find a few that I would look to lay but most will be double figures in the betting so of no value, True Hero could go well and may win if taking to the surface although its not shown much in one run here and one at Newcastle on the same surface, I will be siding with NELLIE FRENCH 7/2 who can hopefully get a good early position from stall 4 from which to attack in the latter stages of the race.

Nellie French 7/2 1st (+3.5pts) (Betfair SP 5.45) 

Total on the day +3.5pts

4:30 Newcastle Racing Tips & Lay Bets (10th February)

NEWCASTLE 4.30 

Even for a class 6 handicap this is a dire race and too honest I've got the same negative against every horse barring the one, the negative is that 9 of the runners have been in poor form lately, some have other negatives so the selection has to be NELLIE FRENCH 5/6 who won last time out over this distance at Wolverhampton, the same surface, but its best time came here over this c/d in 2020 and a repeat of that should be good so looks to have been found an ideal opportunity to follow up here but I expect it will be a fairly hot favourite, I cannot fathom why (Suwaan 6/1) is such a short price, yes it is a c/d winner but it hasn't shown anything of merit time wise since 2018 and i will happily lay the win on this horse. 

Abandoned

WOLVERHAMPTON 6.45 

A typical race where there is only 8 runners but I have struggled to narrow it down to anything lower than 3 of the runners so i will going with a dutch on A GO GO 9/2 who from stall 2 should be able to get away quickly and gain control of the rails and then could prove hard to catch but its best time is only good enough for 2nd top spot on recent c/d times but that is only 2lbs below QAARAAT 10/3 who just lately it has been running quite well and has won twice in its last four starts, BUY ME BACK 3/1 has only a slow c/d time to its name from its only run over this c/d but has a time from Lingfield that would make it my top rated so if taking to this surface could have every chance of winning but it has a time on the straight course at Newcastle which is good enough for 3rd overall, I will look to lay (Lady Quickstep 6/1) who may struggle to stay the distance in a fast run affair which looks more than likely here. 

Buy Me Back 10/3 1st (+3.33pts) (Betfair sp 4.57)

Qaaraat 7/2 3rd (-1pt)

A Go Go 4th 7/2 (-1pt) 

Lay bet: Lady Quickstep +1pt

Total: +2.33pts 

WOLVERHAMPTON 7.45 Div I 

This 1st division of a class 6 sprint looks quite good for the class, (Eldelbar 5/2) will I expect be quite fancied in the betting after winning its last 2 races but its speed figures over this c/d isn't quite good enough for the win if others repeat their best but could still go well so I would go with a small lay, I would also usually look to lay Big Time Maybe as it can struggle to stay the trip but there isn't any known front runners in this race so that might not apply in this race and time wise it could go well with a slower early pace,, there's a few that could go well, Closely is my 4th top rated and 3rd top on recent c/d times, Tan who has the plum draw could be tempted to make the running and it does come out 3rd best on my figures and that time was recorded over this c/d this year, my money will be riding on *GLOBAL HUMOR 9/1 who has the best speed figure which was recorded in 2020 and the horse has one win and two places from its 3 previous c/d runs and should be staying on at the business end of the race. 

*NR

Lay bet: Eldelbar +1pt

Total: +1pt

WOLVERHAMPTON 8.15 Div II 

This 2nd division is very poor where I can only find 5 horses with recorded times and they are not that good, among the rest there's a lot of lightly raced sorts so this race is best well left alone.

Total on the day: +3.33pts

2:25 Lingfield Racing Tips (29th January)

LINGFIELD 2.25 

A field of 9 with 5 of them known as front running types and I think this race will be won from the front, Smokey is in good heart winning last time out but needs to improve time wise to win this race unless the front runners go off too fast and fade quickly nearing home, Shining has a time from 2019 that would see it making the frame if not winning the race but recent times have been 9lbs below its best and the jockeys 0-4 doesn't inspire confidence, Chitra has the 2nd best recent c/d time to its name and an even better time, by 4lbs from 2019 but stall 7 with 4 fast starters on its inside could be a recipe for disaster but could make the frame if defying its draw, I am hoping that from stall one that A GO GO 13/2 can gain control of the rails and then kick on once into the home straight so leading from pillar to post. 

A Go Go 7/1 9th (-1pt)

Total -1pt

WOLVERHAMPTON 8.15 

This race is a little bit harder than most to be very confident about with a couple of possibly hidden dangers in the race, Manumission who is making its handicap debut but its 3 runs have shown virtually nothing but that's the name of the game to get a low handicap rating to use to their advantage, Valentine Rose hasn't any distance form but has faded in 7 furlong races so this might suit it, Solar Park is 2nd top rated on recent ties and 3rd best overall and likes to track the leaders and then stay on strongly at the finish, Tan did finish 2nd three runs ago but it was in a slow run race but has a time from 2019 that would make it my 2nd top rated overall and was 5lbs better than that in 2018 but I would need to see some form of life in a true run affair before i thought it could get back to winning ways, my pennies will be riding on NELLIE FRENCH 6/1 who can be held up or track the leaders and it recorded the top speed figure in this race on Jan 4th when finishing 2nd, it lost position on the bend in its last race but was then seen to stay on strongly at the finish and with a clear run here it can get back to winning ways. 

Nellie French 6/1 1st (+6pts) (Betfair SP 5.06)

Total on the day: +5pts