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Wednesday, 10 February 2021

6:00 Newcastle Racing Tips & Lay Bets (11th February)


NEWCASTLE 6.00 

Just the 7 runners with a couple of front runners, Outrage who is only 5th top on my figures and Another Angel who might be outclassed here but it could be in the race to set it up for its stablemate, I would look to lay both (Kind Review and North Wind) BUT only if they are single figure prices anything bigger and they would not be of value to lay, El Hombre and Be Proud could go well but with only 2 places up for grabs i wouldn't be betting each way, my money will be riding on *TATHMEEN 15/2 who usually likes to track the leaders and then run on at the finish and this race could suit it. 

*NR 

Lay bets: Kind Review -2pts, North Wind +1pt

Total: -1pt


NEWCASTLE 6.30 

Ten runners entered here with just one known front runner, once again I will lay 2 runners as long as they are single figure prices, anything bigger isn't value, (Fendale + Puchita) the latter runs an ok race plenty of times but its win are few and far between and usually stays on as though further would suit it better, Rebel Redemption has been known to lead when nothing else wanted to and then sets a slower than usual pace but I doubt that will happen here and might be worth adding to the list of possible lays, Medicine Jack, Good Night Mr Tom, and Nick Vedder, my 4th,3rd and 2nd top ratings, could battle to make the frame and the latter might be worth considering as a covering bet for the selection if that one fades, as it could do best of those coming from off the pace but I will be giving one more chance to PEARL OF QATAR 4/1 mainly because it could lead here without being pressed from the off and hopefully it can hold on for the win after a hattrick of 2nd place finishes. 

Pearl Of Qatar 4/1 2nd (-1pt)

Lay bets: Fendale - 3.5pts, Puchita +1pt

Total: -3.5pts 

NEWCASTLE 7.00 

Only 5 of the 11 runners have recorded speed figures on my graphs and I would look to lay 5 of the field but I doubt any of them will be a single figure price in this race, Glorious Charmer needs to improve time wise to win this race and its 2 previous runs here have resulted in slow times, Paddy Power is 2nd top rated if I go back to its best time from 2019 but has been in poor form lately, the 5lb claim off Kilconquhar would move it to joint top spot but the apprentice is 0-2 for the stables older horses but that isn't enough to be sure whether its a negative or a positive booking, GIGI BEACH 9/2 is joint top rated on a 2020 time and its time from this year is 6lb lower but only 1lb off top spot on just 2021 times, ROCKLEY POINT 5/1 is top rated on just 2021 times so has to be respected and it is the only known front runner in the race so could have every chance but I have to add *SHAMAROUSKI 7/1 who has very good trainer stats and good jockey stats, it hasn't run over this distance on this surface before but did run well over 7 furlongs at Wolverhampton where it faded inside the final furlong so this might suit it well and i will go with dutching all 3 selections.

*Apologies as Eric detailed this race as 7:30. 

*NR

Gigi Beach 9/2 3rd (-1pt)
Rockley Point 5/1 6th (-1pt)

Total: -2pts 

Total on the day:  -6.5pts

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