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Tuesday, 9 February 2021

4:30 Newcastle Racing Tips & Lay Bets (10th February)


Even for a class 6 handicap this is a dire race and too honest I've got the same negative against every horse barring the one, the negative is that 9 of the runners have been in poor form lately, some have other negatives so the selection has to be NELLIE FRENCH 5/6 who won last time out over this distance at Wolverhampton, the same surface, but its best time came here over this c/d in 2020 and a repeat of that should be good so looks to have been found an ideal opportunity to follow up here but I expect it will be a fairly hot favourite, I cannot fathom why (Suwaan 6/1) is such a short price, yes it is a c/d winner but it hasn't shown anything of merit time wise since 2018 and i will happily lay the win on this horse. 



A typical race where there is only 8 runners but I have struggled to narrow it down to anything lower than 3 of the runners so i will going with a dutch on A GO GO 9/2 who from stall 2 should be able to get away quickly and gain control of the rails and then could prove hard to catch but its best time is only good enough for 2nd top spot on recent c/d times but that is only 2lbs below QAARAAT 10/3 who just lately it has been running quite well and has won twice in its last four starts, BUY ME BACK 3/1 has only a slow c/d time to its name from its only run over this c/d but has a time from Lingfield that would make it my top rated so if taking to this surface could have every chance of winning but it has a time on the straight course at Newcastle which is good enough for 3rd overall, I will look to lay (Lady Quickstep 6/1) who may struggle to stay the distance in a fast run affair which looks more than likely here. 

Buy Me Back 10/3 1st (+3.33pts) (Betfair sp 4.57)
Qaaraat 7/2 3rd (-1pt)
A Go Go 4th 7/2 (-1pt) 

Lay bet: Lady Quickstep +1pt

Total: +2.33pts 


This 1st division of a class 6 sprint looks quite good for the class, (Eldelbar 5/2) will I expect be quite fancied in the betting after winning its last 2 races but its speed figures over this c/d isn't quite good enough for the win if others repeat their best but could still go well so I would go with a small lay, I would also usually look to lay Big Time Maybe as it can struggle to stay the trip but there isn't any known front runners in this race so that might not apply in this race and time wise it could go well with a slower early pace,, there's a few that could go well, Closely is my 4th top rated and 3rd top on recent c/d times, Tan who has the plum draw could be tempted to make the running and it does come out 3rd best on my figures and that time was recorded over this c/d this year, my money will be riding on *GLOBAL HUMOR 9/1 who has the best speed figure which was recorded in 2020 and the horse has one win and two places from its 3 previous c/d runs and should be staying on at the business end of the race. 


Lay bet: Eldelbar +1pt

Total: +1pt


This 2nd division is very poor where I can only find 5 horses with recorded times and they are not that good, among the rest there's a lot of lightly raced sorts so this race is best well left alone.

Total on the day: +3.33pts

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