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Thursday, 11 March 2021

3:50 Lingfield Racing Tips (12th March)


Only 7 runners in this race luckily there is a couple for known front running types in the race which always helps with analysis, Harbour Storm is a possible pacesetter but I am not sure this surface suits it, Martineo should be staying on at the finish and comes out 4th best just 1lb below Sir Hector in 3rd top spot, another that usually stays on at the finish after being held up in the early stages of the race but I think the top weight horse SWISS PRIDE 6/4 will be the one to set the pace and as it comes out top rated on my figures which was recorded this year it should prove hard to catch and ought to be able to lead all the way in this race. 

Swiss Pride 2/1 1st +2pts (Betfair sp - )

Total +2pts


I am not really a fan of these low class stakes races but sometimes there is a gem in the field, there is couple of horses in this division who have pieces of form that are above the rest BUT there is quite a few lightly raced sorts in the race who could be capable of improving and on recent speed figures alone there isn't much to work with so any stakes will be kept low, Terri Rules 11/4 is a horse that likes to lead and if it could reproduce its best time from 2018 it could lead all the way and did run ok with a decent time over this distance at Kempton but is 0-5 over this c/d so maybe the value call is to side with MIRACLE GARDEN 10/3 who is top rated on recent c/d times, I will admit I thought it might be around the 6/1 price which was forecast on the tissue prices, in fact it recorded that time this year and has a time from 2019 that makes it top rated on overall figures and that's enough for me to side with it. 

Miracle Garden 10/3 1st +3.33pts (Betfair sp - )

Total +3.33pts 


This actually looks the weaker division of the 2 with very little to work on so I just analysed the first few in the betting, Twice As Likely 4/1 may need further and it was a slow time when it finished 3rd last time it ran, Shymay 8/1 is 0-13 in all of its runs but has been placed 4 times, Al Verde and Cherish have poor recent form, Ancient Astronaut 5/1 finished 2nd last time out but may have been flattered as it was a slow run affair, Andre Amor 10/3 looks likely to be the favourite and did run well last time out when finishing 2nd but that was over 5 furlongs and I am not 100% sure it stays 6 furlongs in a true run race, looking at the tissue prices, (only a rough guide) the value call could be FANTASY JUSTIFIER 10/1 (EW) it has the fastest recent c/d time which was recorded in 2020 and has a faster times in both 2019 and 2018 and is forecast to be a double figure price and could be worth an each way punt.

Fantasy Justifier 16/1 EW 7th -2pts

Total on the day +3.33pts

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