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Tuesday 2 March 2021

7:50 Kempton Racing Tips (3rd March)


SIR RODNEYREDBLOOD 10/3 won last time out at Chelmsford and has a winning c/d time to its name but that is 10lb below the Chelmsford times, its a shorter price than value because of those 2 victories, it should go well but maybe too high in the handicap now to follow up here. 

PHOENIX STAR 9/2 has the plum stall 1 draw and likes to track the leaders and then stay on strongly at the finish and has won 4 races from just 6 previous c/d runs. 

ACES 4/1 is usually held up for a late run but may struggle to pick up the leaders for the win unless it can reproduce its best time from Wolverhampton on the Tapeta surface and in my opinion is way too short in price. 

GOLD COAST 14/1 hasn't any course form and it makes me think it will be better when racing over a longer distance which is reflected in its price.

BOUNTY PURSUIT 25/1 this is another horse that looks likely to be a better prospect when racing over a longer trip and is an outsider. 

LORNA COLE 18/1 has one c/d win from its 4 c/d runs but time wise it will need to improve a few pounds to win this race and again its reflected in its price. 

STORM MELODY 10/3 won last time out but it was a slow run affair and is shorter in price than it merits because of that but is well drawn in stall 2. 

MADRINHO 18/1 hasn't been in great form lately but does have a time from 2019 that would make it my joint 4th top rated but doesn't seem fancied here.

MAID MILLIE 28/1 is my top rated and has won once and been placed once from just 3 c/d runs and if stall 9 doesn't be too much of a handicap it ought to go well here and at the price is maybe worth a small each way bet. 

WHO TOLD JO JO 12/1 is 0-17 on AW tracks and 6 of those runs have been over today's c/d where it was placed twice but needs to improve time wise to win here. 

BERNIES BOY 18/1 is in stall 10 and normally for a front runner that wouldn't be ideal but it is the only natural leading sort in the field and could be dangerous if getting to the front so at the price i will have a small each way bet.

KNOCKOUT BLOW 14/1 hasn't shown much for quite awhile now over this c/d and hasn't made the frame in its 2 previous c/d runs. 

SUMMARY: Its not an easy race to analyse and I will go with dutching 3 horses in this race, BERNIES BOY 18/1 is the only known front runner in the field and if getting to the front it could prove hard to catch, PHOENIX STAR 9/2 has very good trainer/jockey stats and is my 2nd top rated on c/d times and it is well housed in stall 1, MAID MILLIE 28/1 is top rated on recent c/d times but unless it can follow the horse drawn on its outside across towards the rail it may struggle to get a clear run, so with the if’s and but’s in the race I will go with 3 small wagers in the race. 

PHOENIX STAR 9/2 1 Point Win  2nd -1pt
MAID MILLIE 28/1 ½ Point Each Way 9th -1 1/2pts
BERNIES BOY 18/1 ½ Point Each Way Unp -11/2pts

Total on the day -4pts

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