Only 5 runners but luckily there's a couple of known front running types, Top Breeze could be dangerous if allowed an easy lead but I doubt Lihou will allow that to happen, Blue De Vega may be better over a longer trip so will be trying to stay on at the finish but maybe too late to win this race, Han Solo Berger would need to improve time wise to win this race so I will be backing ROYAL BIRTH 11/2 who can be held up or track the leaders and this race could be run to suit it, so at the price looks the value call for this race.
Royal Birth 7/1 1st +7pts (Betair sp 9.43)
Total +7pts
REDCAR 3.25
I'm hoping the going is good to firm as forecast, firstly I will lay (Intrinsic) who I think will be better over a longer distance, there's a few horses out of form who i could lay but they are all big prices, Redrosezorro could go well here and being a possible pacesetter it could do enough to make the frame, others that have some figures that would make them competitive, Woven, Embour, Wentworth Falls and Fortimour, Gale Force Max has a time from 2019 that would give it a chance here but i am hoping another possible pacesetter, BOSSIPOP 18/1 (EW), can get to the front and then prove hard to catch and the jockey has a 15% win ratio on the stables older horses, so at the price I have to go with an each way bet.
Bossipop 18/1 Unp -2pts
Lay bet Intrinsic +1pt
Total -1pt
KEMPTON 5.10
A field of 7 here with just Desert Safari known as a front runner but I doubt it can lead and hod on for the win, Lord Rapscallion may need further to shine, Lexington Dash will be running on but I'm not sure what to think about its chances of winning but I will go with the proven, Fresh and Jonah James could go well if reproducing their best ratings, Treacherous comes out top rated on its best time from 2020 but it is only good enough for 2nd top spot overall so I’ll be backing TOTAL COMMITMENT 7/1 who is only 3rd best on recent, 2020/21, c/d times but its best time from this surface at Lingfield makes it my top rated and it usually likes to track the leaders and then stay on the strongest at the business end of the race.
Total Commitment 7/1 3rd -1pt
Total on the day +5pts
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