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Monday 30 August 2021

2:50 Epsom Racing Tips (31st August)

EPSOM 2.50 

KIMIFIVE 7/1 has only slow times over this distance this year while its best speed figure from 2020 would make it 3rd top rated on my overall figures and usually likes to track the leaders. 

EVASIVE POWER 6/1 comes out 2nd best on just 2021 times but that time is only good enough for 4th top on my overall figures.

RECON MISSION 11/4 is the only one known to prefer to front run, hasn't any distance form for this year but its best time from 2021 makes it my top rated on my overall figures.

DELEGATE THIS LORD 10/3 another with no distance form for this year and it would need to improve on its best time to win this race.

SPRING BLOOM 15/8 comes out top rated on just 2021 times but that is only good enough for 4th top spot on overall figures but its best from 2020 moves it into 2nd top spot. 

SUMMARY: a small field where my top rated is the only known front running type in the race so if RECON MISSION 11/4 can repeat its best time from 2020 at Newmarket it could lead all the way and get back to winning ways plus the jockey booking looks a positive as he has a 26% win ratio on the stables older horses. 

Recon Mission 11/4 1st +2.75pts 

Total +2.75pts

RIPON 3.05 

MARK'S CHOICE 3/1 a possible front runner in this race and its best time from this year makes it my 2nd top rated but it does drop down to 3rd best on overall figures.

I AM A DREAMER 9/2 this one will need to improve on its best speed figure to be winning this race but it was recorded this year at Thirsk. 

PRINCESS POWER 4/1 will be one I will look to lay as it may struggle to stay the distance with 3 possible front runners so the early pace should be fast. 

PIVOTING 12/1 this 3yo has been known to lead but I'm not convinced this one wants good to firm ground and only has poor speed figures over this distance. 

CASE KEY 8/1 is the 3rd possible front runner and its best time from 2020 at Leicester makes it my top rated on my overall figures. 

USTATH 9/2 is my top rated on just 2021 times but that time does drop it down to 2nd top spot on my overall figures and doesn't want a really fast early pace but should be staying on well at the finish. 

WADE'S MAGIC 9/2 hasn't any distance form on turf this year and its another that I think doesn't really like good to firm ground. 

SUMMARY: I  think the early pace is the key to this race and I think MARK'S CHOICE and CASE KEY could be the ones to set the pace and as long as they don't go off too fast they should be hard to catch, I cannot really split them and will be backing them both as the former better form this year and the better trainer/jockey stats while the latter would win a shade cosily if able to reproduce its best 2020 speed figure.

Mark's Choice 3/1 -1pt 
Case Key 15/2 7th -1pt 

Total -2pts 

Total on the day +0.75pts

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