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Tuesday 14 September 2021

3:20 Redcar Racing Tips (14th September)

REDCAR 3.20 

This race may not be quite what it seems, firstly there isn't a known front running type amongst the 8 runners and then secondly the time the 3yo RUNNINWILD 5/1 recorded at Carlisle is very very high for this class of race so if that time is a true reflection it would win cosily and it does have good jockey stats, if that time isn't to be believed then the win could fall to another 3yo CAPTAIN VALLO 3/1, both of them like to track the leaders but that applies to 7 of the runners in total, I will probably have small bets on both of them, if there was a guarantee of a fast early pace I would have looked to lay both Khabib 9/1 and Wades Magic 3/1 who both look better prospects when racing over a shorter distance. 

Runninwild 5/1 3rd -1pt 
Captain Vallo 7/2 4th -1pt 

Lay bets: Wade's Magic 3/1 -3pts, Khabin +1pt

Total -4pts


Just 6 runners for this class 5 race and its another race without a known front running type but there is a horse I fancy quite strongly for this race but the lack of known pace is a concern, Mehmo 5/1 can struggle to stay the sixth furlong if there is a strong early gallop so it might be ok in this race, Papa Stour 5/2 might prefer a longer trip to show its best so may struggle here and one I will look to lay as it looks poor value in my opinion, the 3yo Rabat is my 3rd top rated while Napping comes out 2nd top rated using a time from 2020 over this course and distance, my money will be riding on MOLLY SHAW 3/1 who is top rated on a time recorded here this year and has good trainer/jockey stats. 

Molly Sure 3/1 2nd -1pt 

Lay bets: Pap Stour 2/1 -2pts

Total -3pts


There's 9 runners in this 5 furlong dash with 4 known front runners in the race, firstly I will look to lay Bomb Proof 4/1 who has made the frame twice recently but its best runs on turf on good and good to firm ground have resulted in relatively slow times the trainer does have decent 15% win ratio and the jockeys stats are 24% win ratio but if the horse isn't good enough nothing can change that fact, stats do have a part to play but are definitely not the be all and end all of race analysis although a good jockey should get the best it can out of the horse, maybe the early pace will come from Zapper Cass 9/1 or Expert Opinion who are my 2nd and 4th top rated so if the former gets to the front it could prove hard to catch and might be worth a small each way wager, Amor De Mi Vada 3/1 sits in 3rd top spot so could run on to make the frame but isn't an each way price, my top rated is GRANDFATHERTOM 20/1 who usually likes to track the leaders before staying on the stronger nearing the finish, its only had the one run this year and that was 19 days ago where I blasted off from the front, not a usual tactic, so that should have blow away and rustiness as before that run it had a run since November 2020, if fully wound up with 4 early paced types in the race this race could be run to suit its racing style. 

Grandfather Tom 20/1 5th -2pts 

Lay bets: Bomb Proof +1pt

Total -1pt 


I've marked down 5 runners from this field of 11 runners that I would look to lay depending upon the prices but I'm doubting if many if any will be a single figure price but at the price I would look to lay I'm Watching You 4/1 as it might prefer a longer trip, Twice As Likely and Billy Dylan are my joint 3rd top rated but in both instances the times were recorded in 2020, Captain Ryan is one of 3 possible pacesetters in this race but there might be something else a bit faster in the early stages although it is my 2nd top rated but I do have JORVIK PRINCE 4/1 rated a few spots higher, I tipped it up last time out but that day the blindfold was removed late and the horse was at least 5 lengths off the pace from the off which isn't any good for a front running type, it did stay on for 3rd in that race but I am hoping again it can lead all the way in this race.

Jorvik Prince 4/1 4th -1pt 

Lay bets: I'm Watching You +1pt

Total: 0pts

Total on the day -8pts

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