2:40 Salisbury Racing Tips (28th June)

SALISBURY 2.40 

5F Class 4 6 Runners A sprint for horses aged six or older but I'm disappointed with the turnout of just six runners. Samper's Seven is a possible pacesetter but hasn't shown much time wise and may not like the fast good to firm ground, Just Glamorous is the other one that could try to set the pace here but also doesn't seem to like really fast ground but could be dangerous if allowed an easy lead, Saaheq is the third horse that doesn't seem to like really fast ground, Stone Circle races as though a longer distance would suit it better so might not be able to catch the leaders in this race, Redredrobin also races as though further would suit it better and might also be outclassed at this level of racing. So that's five of the runners with negatives against their names which leaves me with GRANDFATHER TOM 10/3 who likes to track the leaders and then stay on the stronger nearing the finish so this race could be run to suit it and on my ratings if it reproduces its best rating from Windsor last year it would win this race a shade cosily and its been in great form recently and has been found another good winning opportunity.

Grandfather Tom 9/1 6th -1pt 

Total on the day -1pt

7:35 Lingfield Racing Tips (6th June)

LINGFIELD 7.35 

The only sprint of interest for me today and there's only 7 runners in this class 5 dash over the minimum trip and I can find 3 horses that have been known to lead before. Libertus might prefer further and will be a lay if its a single figure price, looking at the early tissue prices Mary Of Modena is forecast to be the favourite but this one likes to front run but maybe it wont be able to do that over this shorter distance and its 4 runs on this surface and distance have all been quite dire so another 1 I will look to lay. Pepper Streak is one that likes to lead but is only 4th best on my figures so maybe wont be able to dominate in this race, Hey Ho Lets Go usually likes to track the leaders so could do enough to make the frame but its best rating has dropped a few spots the last 2 years and i doubt it will be able to win this race but I expect it will be an outsider, the top weight Micks Spirit who is another that likes to track the leaders is my 2nd top rated and its only 2lbs below my top rated but as that is the front running Grandfather Tom who is capable of leading all the way against this opposition and will be carrying my money. 

Bet: GRANDFATHER TOM 5/2 1st +2.5pts

Lay: LIBERTUS 5/1 (+1pt) + MARY OF MODENA 5/2 (+1pt)

Total on the day +4pts

4:10 Southwell Racing Tips (11th May)

SOUTHWELL 4.10

A smallish field of 7 for this class 5 sprint where I think the early pace will most likely be set by Stalingrad but this one is still a maiden after 19 races and 8 of those have been on an artificial surface but its best rating recorded on Tapeta at Wolverhampton would give it at least a chance of doing enough to make the frame, Roshambo 6/1 is my 4th top rated but may need this run for fitness and I will look to lay it if of value to do so nearing the off, Bill Plumb 9/4 comes out 3rd on my figures and if a short priced favourite then I would look to lay it but it would need to be no bigger than 5/2 near the off to be value in my opinion. Blackjack sits in 2nd top spot and likes to track the leaders as does RHYTHM 11/2 who is my top rated and the one that will be carrying my money. 

Rhythm 13/2 5th -1pt 

Lay bets: Roshambo +1pt, Bill Plumb +1pt 

Total +1pt

SOUTHWELL 5.13 

Another 7 runner race in this class 5 dash where 4 of the runners have been known to lead before although Yimou might not be able to lead in this race but does come out 3rd best on my ratings with front running Thegreatestshowman rated just 1lb lower in 4th top spot. Of those coming from off the pace I expect Josies Kid to do best as it comes out in 2nd top spot and only 3lbs below GRANDFATHER TOM 6/5 in top spot but I expect this one will be a hot favourite, so only really of any use in a multiple bet, but I cannot see anything to oppose it with so has to be the one I back one way or another.

Grandfather Tom 11/5 4th -1pt 

Total -1pt

CHELMSFORD 6.30 

Just 6 runners for this class 6 dash, Spanish Angel, Vandad and Fiscal Policy might be better over further while Tomshalfbrother might need this race for fitness. Red Walls is my 2nd top rated using course and distance times and this one likes to front run but doesn't do as well when taken on early for the lead so being that MUSTAFFIZ 4/1 is rated higher, even though its only by 1lb but with the apprentice jockeys 3lb claim its now makes it rated 4lb’s lower, also likes to front run it might have to give way and then Mustaffiz should prove the stronger in the closing stages.

Mustaffiz 5/1 5th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day -1pt 

1:45 Nottingham Racing Tips (12th August)

NOTTINGHAM 1.45 

Class 6 race over 5 furlongs with 8 runners, I might look to lay Porfin 4/1 who won last time out over a furlong further so might find today's trip too short also No Guts No Glory 11/2 who’s form looks quite good on paper but they were all relatively slow times and another where further might suit it better, Harrogate looks the one likely to set the pace to the race and if allowed to dictate it could possibly lead all the way but it hasn't been in the best of form lately, GRANDFATHER TOM 3/1 is my 2nd top rated and top on just 2022 ratings while COLEY'S KOKO 6/1 is 2nd top on 2022 figures and top rated by just 1lb on overall figures, neither have great trainer/jockey stats so I will have to back both of them. 

Grandfather Tom 5/1 6th -1pt 

Coley's Koko 6/1 7th -1pt 

Lay bets: Porfin +1pt, No Guts No Glory +1pt 

Total 0pts

NOTTINGHAM 2.20 

Class 4 race over 5 furlongs with 7 runners, there is 3 that have led before and Abate may do best of that trio being my 2nd top rated horse, *Ballet Steps will be a lay if of value to do so as I don't think good to firm ground suits it, Good Luck Fox is my 3rd top rated but top spot belongs to the 3yo DUSKY PRINCE 9/2 who has been in good form completing its hattrick of wins before finishing 4th last time out and a repeat of its best time from Goodwood would be good enough to see it back to winning ways. 

*NR 

Dusky Prince 13/2 2nd -1pt 

Total -1pt 

WOLVERHAMPTON 4.18 

Class 6 race over 6 furlongs with 9 runners, I can see a couple of known pacesetters in Ustath my joint 4th top rated and Stay Smart who is my 3rd top rated and this one is dropped in class to run in this race but hasn't been in good form recently so its the old old battle between form and class but I couldn't back it on its recent form but with an easy lead and rejuvenated by meeting lessor horses it just could possibly win this race but it too big a risk for me to get involved unless its an each way price or its seriously backed, Q Twenty Boy 7/2 is a course and distance winner but can struggle to stay the distance if there's a fast early gallop so this race might not be run to suit it, Mutabaahy comes out 2nd best on my figures but this 7yo hasn't shown any noteworthy form of late but could make the frame if on a going day but my money will be riding on CATESBY 5/1 who recorded its best rating earlier this year and showed its liking for this Tapeta surface when finishing 2nd last time out at Southwell after being slowly away and where it was beaten by Ustath but meets that rival on 8lbs better terms and if away on level terms here should reverse the form. 

Catesby 5/1 4th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

NEWMARKET 5.45 

Class 4 race over 6 furlongs with 7 runners, I'm not sure what to expect from Counsel who won last time out over a furlong further and hasn't any form over this distance that was a decent enough race and it was always up with in the firing line so could easily be good enough to win this race, on ratings over today's distance Wajd comes out in joint top spot along with Equiano Springs so I think this race is best left alone. 

-

THIRSK 6.07 

Class 4 race over 5 furlongs with 8 runners and 5 of them have been known to lead before so it should be a fast and furious dash, Alligator Alley 5/2 hasn't been in good form lately and hasn't won since 2019 and although this is a drop in class I'm not sure whether I should lay it or not, on just 2022 ratings there is only 1lb between my top 3 horses Birkenhead, Khabib and MODULAR MAGIC 8/1 but the latter has a rating from 2021 that would see it winning this race a shade cosily and looking at the early tissue prices it might be the value call in this race and if getting to the front it might prove hard to peg back.

Modular Magic 8/1 8th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day - 3pts

3:20 Redcar Racing Tips (14th September)

REDCAR 3.20 

This race may not be quite what it seems, firstly there isn't a known front running type amongst the 8 runners and then secondly the time the 3yo RUNNINWILD 5/1 recorded at Carlisle is very very high for this class of race so if that time is a true reflection it would win cosily and it does have good jockey stats, if that time isn't to be believed then the win could fall to another 3yo CAPTAIN VALLO 3/1, both of them like to track the leaders but that applies to 7 of the runners in total, I will probably have small bets on both of them, if there was a guarantee of a fast early pace I would have looked to lay both Khabib 9/1 and Wades Magic 3/1 who both look better prospects when racing over a shorter distance. 

Runninwild 5/1 3rd -1pt 

Captain Vallo 7/2 4th -1pt 

Lay bets: Wade's Magic 3/1 -3pts, Khabin +1pt

Total -4pts

YARMOUTH 4.00 

Just 6 runners for this class 5 race and its another race without a known front running type but there is a horse I fancy quite strongly for this race but the lack of known pace is a concern, Mehmo 5/1 can struggle to stay the sixth furlong if there is a strong early gallop so it might be ok in this race, Papa Stour 5/2 might prefer a longer trip to show its best so may struggle here and one I will look to lay as it looks poor value in my opinion, the 3yo Rabat is my 3rd top rated while Napping comes out 2nd top rated using a time from 2020 over this course and distance, my money will be riding on MOLLY SHAW 3/1 who is top rated on a time recorded here this year and has good trainer/jockey stats. 

Molly Sure 3/1 2nd -1pt 

Lay bets: Pap Stour 2/1 -2pts

Total -3pts

YARMOUTH 4.30 

There's 9 runners in this 5 furlong dash with 4 known front runners in the race, firstly I will look to lay Bomb Proof 4/1 who has made the frame twice recently but its best runs on turf on good and good to firm ground have resulted in relatively slow times the trainer does have decent 15% win ratio and the jockeys stats are 24% win ratio but if the horse isn't good enough nothing can change that fact, stats do have a part to play but are definitely not the be all and end all of race analysis although a good jockey should get the best it can out of the horse, maybe the early pace will come from Zapper Cass 9/1 or Expert Opinion who are my 2nd and 4th top rated so if the former gets to the front it could prove hard to catch and might be worth a small each way wager, Amor De Mi Vada 3/1 sits in 3rd top spot so could run on to make the frame but isn't an each way price, my top rated is GRANDFATHERTOM 20/1 who usually likes to track the leaders before staying on the stronger nearing the finish, its only had the one run this year and that was 19 days ago where I blasted off from the front, not a usual tactic, so that should have blow away and rustiness as before that run it had a run since November 2020, if fully wound up with 4 early paced types in the race this race could be run to suit its racing style. 

Grandfather Tom 20/1 5th -2pts 

Lay bets: Bomb Proof +1pt

Total -1pt 

WOLVERHAMPTON 8.20

I've marked down 5 runners from this field of 11 runners that I would look to lay depending upon the prices but I'm doubting if many if any will be a single figure price but at the price I would look to lay I'm Watching You 4/1 as it might prefer a longer trip, Twice As Likely and Billy Dylan are my joint 3rd top rated but in both instances the times were recorded in 2020, Captain Ryan is one of 3 possible pacesetters in this race but there might be something else a bit faster in the early stages although it is my 2nd top rated but I do have JORVIK PRINCE 4/1 rated a few spots higher, I tipped it up last time out but that day the blindfold was removed late and the horse was at least 5 lengths off the pace from the off which isn't any good for a front running type, it did stay on for 3rd in that race but I am hoping again it can lead all the way in this race.

Jorvik Prince 4/1 4th -1pt 

Lay bets: I'm Watching You +1pt

Total: 0pts

Total on the day -8pts

3:30 Chelmsford Racing Tips (26th August)

CHELMSFORD 3.30 

Only 6 runners but half of them have been known to lead before but I think that Swiss Pride might be the one to set the pace as it seems to be the more natural front running type than the other 2 possible pacesetters, looking at the tissue prices the 3yo Toussarak 6/4 is forecast to be a short priced favourite but I think it might get outpaced as it races as though a longer trip would suit it better so maybe worth laying at the price as you lose very little if it does win, INVINCIBLE LARNE 13/2 hasn't run over this course and distance this year and its best from 2020 makes it my top rated so has to have a decent chance of winning and has been running well lately on turf, my top rated on just 2021 times is ARAIFJAN 6/1 who is versatile when it comes to its racing tactics and has the plum draw in stall 1 to work from and should get a good early position from which to lead or attack in the latter stages of the race. 

Araifjan 6/1 4th -1pt 

Invincible Larne 13/2 5th -1pt 

Total -2pts 

CHELMSFORD 5.05 

Only 8 runners and I can find negatives against 5 of them and I would look to lay any that are a single figure price, Katherine Place is my 3rd top rated which it recorded over this course and distance this year so could go well but I doubt it will be an each way price, Precious Plum is my 2nd top rated with TILSWORTH ROSE 11/4 in top spot, these 2 met each other last time out and the selection is weighted to confirm the result in this race, the jockey booking looks a positive until you notice he is 0-14 when riding for this stable which is a concern so my stakes will be kept on the low side. 

Tilsworth Rose 17/2 6th -1pt

Lay bets Cable Guy +1pt, Swell Song +1pt, Rocksbury +1pt, Kelinda Dice +1pt, Hurricane Alert +1pt

Total +4pts

LINGFIELD 5.10 

With 11 runners over the minimum trip I would expect to find at least one or two front runners but no such luck which makes analysis many times harder, I am a great believer that what I call the make-up of the race, the draw and racing style of each runner, is a lot more vital than most punters realise, both Saaheq and Centurion Song don't like the going to be too fast, so I'm hoping they don't water the course too much as I can then eliminate the pair of them, The Princes Poet could go well here being my 2nd top rated on just 2021 times but is only 5th top rated on overall figures, Shamshon has been in good form lately but this 10yo gets gradually slower each year, GRANDFATHER TOM 20/1 (EW) has a time from 2020 that makes it my top rated but it hasn't run for 278 days but has won before after a break so it could go well if fully fit and I am hoping its an each way price but just in case its not fully wound up I will also be backing LEODIS DREAM 7/1 as the top weight is my top rated on 2021 times which is good enough for 2nd top on overall figures.

Leodis Dream 7/1 8th -1pt 

Grandfather Tom 40/1 9th -2pts 

Total -3pts  

LINGFIELD 5.40 

A 10 runner race but again what will lead I have no idea which is always a concern, I will lay Indian Sounds, Isabella Swan and Shoot To Kill if they are single figure prices because all 3 of them struggle to stay the distance with a fast early pace, something has to lead so I am going to hope there early pace is a fast one, Manigordowho is my 3rd top rated and will be trying to stay on at the finish but with a slow early pace I doubt it will get there in time, NATURAL PATH 4/1 is my top rated on just 2021 times and its good enough for 2nd top spot on overall figures but THEOTHERSIDE 12/1 is top rated using a 2020 time, both trainers have had winners in the last 2 weeks and both horses have good trainer/jockey stats so I will go with backing both of them in this race.

Natural Path 4/1 1st +4pts 

Theotherside 12/1 -1pt 

Total +3pts

Total on the day +2pts

7:00 Yarmouth Racing Tips & Lay Bets (28th July)

YARMOUTH 7.00 

Once again I think I will lay (Napping) who usually does its best form in lower class races, there's four 3yo’s in the race plus another 2 with relatively little data from the turf to work with, the trainer of CAMACHESS 9/4 has a decent 18% win ratio at this course which makes it my selection but the jockeys 0-5 record for the stable tempers my enthusiasm and at the price looks poor value but I cannot find anything to take it on with. 

Camachess 11/4 1st (+2.75)

Lay bets: Napping +1pt

Total: +3.75pts

YARMOUTH 8.30 

Only Michaels Choice is known as a frontrunner but this one would need to improve a few pounds to hold on but if given an easy lead that is quite possible, the top 3 in the weights all have higher speed figures, Thegreatestshowman is top-rated on just 2020 times but only 3rd top overall, Texting is 2nd top-rated overall using a 2019 Ascot time, GRANDFATHER TOM 9/1 has a relatively slow time from 2020 to its name but top rated on its course and distance win in 2019 and that's the reason I will have a small bet on this one.

Grandfather Tom 14/1 2nd (-1pt)

Total: -1pt 

Total on the day: +2.75