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Tuesday 5 October 2021

4:58 Kempton Racing Tips (5th October)


MANUMISSION 15/2 the trainer has a poor 4% win ratio and hasn't won from 10 previous runs on the AW tracks and I think this distance might be a bit too far for it with a fast early pace that might happen in this race so I will be laying this one. 

STARTER FOR TEN 6/1 has had 3 runs over this course and distance and produced nothing good enough time wise to register on my figures, it has poor trainer/jockey stats and i will be laying this one if a single figure price. 

MARIONETTE 33/1 is making its handicap debut and the trainer might have been hiding this ones talent but its 3 runs have produced very little in inspire any confidence and it will be one of the outsiders in the field. 

VIVENCY 20/1 has 2 slow times over this course and distance and usually stays on at the finish and its best time from Lingfield would put it in the mix but the trainer is 0-6 for the last 2 weeks and its 60 days since the stable last had a winner. 

THAKI 5/2 is one of two in this race that have been known to lead before but it hasn't run over this course and distance before and its best times from Chelmsford and Lingfield are not good enough to win this race but its best time from Wolverhampton would put it in top spot and has good jockey stats. 

EXCELINTHEJUNGLE 14/1 is quite versatile with its racing tactics and has a decent time from Southwell and it faded in a fastish run time here over 7 furlongs so this course and distance might suit it but its still a maiden after ten races but has made the frame in 3 runs on an artificial surface so might be an each way punt. 

BLUEBIRD DAY 15/2 3yo has been known to lead which can be a bonus in a sprint race, it has good trainer/jockey stats but I'm not sure this fast surface will suit it and may be worth laying if a single figure price. 

WHISPERING ANGEL 6/1 3yo its 4 runs to date have shown very little for its future chances, its best time on grass at Thirsk wouldn't be good enough to make the frame so would need to improve for the switch to this distance on an artificial surface. 

GOT NO DOLLARS 7/2 3yo won last time out over this distance at Chelmsford at the 8th time of trying and did a relatively fast time but the trainer is 0-9 in the last 2 weeks and its 19 days since the stables last winner but could have a good chance if taking to this course. 

THE FIRST HURRAH 12/1 3yo has made the frame in 9 of its races but its 2 course and distance runs produced slow times and will be an outsider. 

PURPLE POPPY 66/1 3yo If runs to its name so far and it hasn’t made the frame in any of them and i cannot see it winning in this race or even make the frame and will be a big price 

SIR GREGORY 25/1 3yo who has shown very little indeed in its 7 runs to date, it finished 3rd once in a slow run affair and will be an outsider in this race. 

SUMMARY: I will look to lay, Manumission, Starter For Ten and Bluebird Day but the latter is only if its not backed significantly as its does have good trainer/jockey stats, if I was 100% sure THAKI 5/2 could reproduce its best Wolverhampton time on this surface it would be my sole bet and if I knew it wouldn't then GOT NO DOLLARS 7/2 would be my sole bet but this ones poor trainer stats, 0-9 in the last 2 weeks and its 17 runners since the stable last did have a winner puts me off again and poor trainer/jockey stats also puts me off Vivency’s chances, so I will go with backing the 2 horses with small stakes to cover the angles of a front runner and one coming from off the pace.

Thaki 5/2 1st +2.5pts + EX £13.80 
Got No Dollars 11/2 -1pts  

Lay bets: Manumission +1pt, Starter For Ten +1pt, Bluebird Day +1pt 

Total on the day +4.5pts 

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