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Monday, 22 November 2021

6:00 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (23rd November)

WOLVERHAMPTON 6.00 

A field of 7 with 2 known front running types which always helps with any analysis, if a single figure price Venturous 10/1 would be worth laying as this might not be its preferred surface and/or it might need a longer distance to show it’s best form, Blue De Vega comes out 3rd best on my ratings and does stay on strongly at the finish and maybe another that is even better over a longer distance, Mondammej 7/4 won last time out but that was 33 days ago so why its been off since then I’ve no idea, it is my top rated on just 2021 course and distance times and 2nd top rated on overall figures and could be the one to prosper if my top rated doesn't run to its best but isn't of value in my opinion, Fizzy Feet will make sure that ROYAL BIRTH 14/1 (EW) doesn't get it too easy up front but i am hoping the selection can get to the front and once doing so it could prove hard to catch and does have decent trainer stats at this course and the jockey does quite well when riding for this stable and will be the one carrying my money in this race, with only 7 runners i am not sure if it is worth backing each way as there is only two places up for grabs. 

Royal Birth 22/1 6th -2pts 

Lay bet: Venturous +1pt

Total -1pt 

WOLVERHAMPTON 7.00 Div I

This class 6 race isn't great even for the class with only 5 of the 11 runners having a rating on my figures, I will look to lay Okaldi 3/1 who may need further if its a single figure price at the off and at the price on offer it looks poor value in my eyes, It Must Be Faith, Thegreyvtrain, Morty and Red Allure could all go well here if running to their best and I wouldn't put anyone off backing anyone of them but as for myself I will take a risk with a punt on BILLY DYLAN 9/2 although all the data, apart from its speed figure, says leave it alone, the trainer hasn't had a winner for 369 days but has only has 33 runners during that time, the trainer has a 3% win ratio at this course and the jockey is 0-11 for this stable and the horse hasn't won in 16 attempts on an artificial surface but has been placed in 4 of those 16 races but this is such a poor race a reproduction of its best time speed figure would see it winning this race a shade cosily. 

Billy Dylan 9/2 9th -1pt

Total -1pt 

WOLVERHAMPTON 7.30 Div II

This 2nd division is dire and I have negatives against 7 of the 11 runners but in such a poor race I couldn't recommend with any confidence laying any of those 7 runners, the one that might set the pace to this race is SHESADABBER 11/1 (EW) who comes 3rd top on my figures and with an easy lead it could be dangerous and hold on for the win so at the price it might be worth an each way flutter, to show how bad this race actually is QAARAAT 7/4 is forecast to be the two to one favourite and its best time, which was recorded in 2019, it would be my top rated but drops down to 2nd best on overall figures and at the price doesn't really represent any value but I couldn't say it wont or cant win so I cannot bet in this race without it carrying some of my money while LORNA COLE 20/1 (EW) comes out top rated on just 2021 speed figures and 2nd top overall but hasn't been in good form lately but looks value for an each way punt, none of the three have good trainer/jockey stats and none of them have had a winner in the last 2 weeks. I might look to dutch the three highlighted horses but in reality this race is maybe best left alone, the betting might be the deciding factor in whether I have a bet or not but I don't want people to lose money so again its best left alone, hey ho decisions decisions.

Lorna Cole 20/1 6th -2pts 
Qaaraat 11/4 8th -1pt 
Shesadabber 33/1 Unp -2pt 

Total -5pts

Total on the day -7pts

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