5:00 Southwell Racing Tips (22nd February)

SOUTHWELL 5.00 

EEH BAH GUM is one of two known front running types in this race but time wise it might struggle to stay there for the win but could possibly make the frame if reproducing its best time from 2019.

COOL SPIRIT isn't in my top 3 ratings on this surface from elsewhere but on just course and distance speed figures its my top rated so has to have a chance of winning this race.

BRANDY STATION hasn't really shown much time wise since 2020 but its recent time here gives it an each way chance. 

ACES has been in poor form in its 2 races this year and usually runs on at this distance and looks a better prospect when racing over a longer distance I doubt it will be of value to lay. 

SAN JUAN doesn't make my top four on my speed figures, it seems to like this course but this is its first run since the surface has been changed but maybe one to lay. 

LOUISE TREIZE this horse has good trainer/jockey stats but speed figure wise it needs to improve, its 5th top using other Tapeta tracks and 3rd top on recent c/d speed figures, it races as though further would suit it better but with good stats I'm not sure if I dare lay it unless its a short priced favourite which it might be after winning last time out. 

GOSSIP has only poor recent form to its name and I expect it will be an outsider and this race and a big turn-up if it can win this race. 

LORNA COLE if i use this ones best time from Wolverhampton last year it comes out top rated but hasn't run here since the change of surface but has to be on my shortlist.

XAMPACHOOCHOO another one with poor recent form and will be a shock if it can win this race and I expect it will be an outsider. 

MOVEONUP is the other known front running type in this race and is 2nd top rated on recent course and distance ratings but only 4th on Tapeta ratings from the other 2 courses.

CHARLEMAINE another that I expect will be an outsider and a big shock if it managed to win the race. 

SUMMARY: My betting in this race will revolve around Louis Treize who is 3rd and 5th on my 2 speed figure ratings, c/d ratings and overall ratings, and is forecast to be the 9/4 favourite and that price I would be prepared to take the risk and lay it BUT it won last time out and they may have found the key to success for this horse and the good trainer/jockey stats also put me off a bit about laying it, as for the winner I will be looking at 2 horses, COOL SPIRIT 8/1 who is my top rated on c/d times and I like the jockey booking and LORNA COLE 11/2 who is top rated on Tapeta ratings from the other 2 courses and who also has good trainer/jockey stats.

Cool Spirit 8/1 3rd -1pt 

Lorna Cole 10/1 5th -1pt 

Lay bets San Juan +1pt

Total -1pt  

SOUTHWELL 6.00 

This is a race where my ratings become complicated because the pair at the bottom of the handicap have recorded good speed figures enough to be my top and 3rd top rated and both of them are upped in class to run in this race, Lihou would normally have been one that I backed but this horse seems to be slipping down the handicap and its form from a couple of years ago would be plenty to win this race, I've also got negatives against three more of the runners which leaves me with CAROLINE DALE 7/1 who won in this class 2 runs ago when leading all the way but missed the kick in its last race and never got involved, if leading here it has a decent chance of getting back to winning ways.

Caroline Dale 7/1 5th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day -2pts

12:30 Southwell Racing Tips (11th February)

SOUTHWELL 12.30 

There's 3 known front running types in this 9 runner race and it just might be won from the front, I will look to lay Toptime 8/1 who looks a better prospect when racing over further as its poor speed figure at this course shows, another one to lay is Brandy Station who hasn't shown anything worthwhile time wise for quite a while now including when finishing 3rd over this c/d last time out, Miss Seafire 9/1 and Brazen Arrow 4/1 could go well but the former is still a maiden after 8 runs and the latter's best rating comes from back in 2020, COOL SPIRIT 5/2 is my top rated on recent c/d speed figures and could try to lead all the way in this race and could do so but its jockey stats are relatively poor at 7% win ratio so maybe not one to back on its own, BLUELLA 22/1 at the bottom of the handicap is well weighted on its best form both at this course on recent runs and its best from Wolverhampton in 2021 so I will be backing it each way at the price but I will have to back them both to cover the angles. 

Bluella 22/1 3rd +3.4pts 

Cool Spirit 7/1 9th -1pt 

Lay bets Toptime +1pt 

Total +4.4pts

SOUTHWELL 1.00 

Lets start with something to lay in this 12 runner low class stakes race where they all carry the same weight, Louis Treize 5/1 will be trying to stay on at the finish but maybe a bit too late to win this race and isn't in my top 4 ratings but could make the frame if others falter and Captain Ryan 7/1 might not be able to lead and may then struggle so another for the lay list and finally Rhubarb 6/1 who usually stays on at the finish but again maybe too late to get up for the win, as for the winner I will be backing 2 horses, firstly BLACKCURRENT 5/2 who is a known front runner and could prove hard to catch for most of the field as it is my joint top rated on recent times at both Wolverhampton and Newcastle in 2021/22 and has good trainer/jockey stats it is also top rated on recent c/d times, I do have *LORNA COLE 11/2 with a higher rating from 2020 at Wolverhampton and has good trainer stats and usually stays on strongly at the finish over this distance so the 2 bets to cover the angles. 

Blackcurrent 5/2 5th -1pt 

Lay bet Louis Treize -3.5pts

Total -4.5pts

SOUTHWELL 4.25 

This is a poor poor race even for another low class stakes race, Dirchill could be the one to set the pace but has only poor form in its recent exertions and I think it will be an outsider, I'm not sure I could lay anything with any certainty as this race will not take much winning although I doubt Knockabout Queen 15/2 who is a hold up type can reach the front in time to win this race, INDEPENDENCE DAY 8/1 (EW) has a rating from Newcastle last year that would make it 8lb’s clear on my ratings and it did run ok last time out when finishing 3rd and has been found a good opportunity to get back to winning ways but my stakes wont be at full tilt because consistency isn't a keyword at this level and its trainer/jockey stats are nothing to write home about and stall 11 isn't ideal but if in the right mood could win this race cosily so I will be backing it and an each way price would be a bonus.

Independence Day 14/1 3rd +1.8pts 

Total +1.8pts

Total on the day +1.7pts

6:00 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (23rd November)

WOLVERHAMPTON 6.00 

A field of 7 with 2 known front running types which always helps with any analysis, if a single figure price Venturous 10/1 would be worth laying as this might not be its preferred surface and/or it might need a longer distance to show it’s best form, Blue De Vega comes out 3rd best on my ratings and does stay on strongly at the finish and maybe another that is even better over a longer distance, Mondammej 7/4 won last time out but that was 33 days ago so why its been off since then I’ve no idea, it is my top rated on just 2021 course and distance times and 2nd top rated on overall figures and could be the one to prosper if my top rated doesn't run to its best but isn't of value in my opinion, Fizzy Feet will make sure that ROYAL BIRTH 14/1 (EW) doesn't get it too easy up front but i am hoping the selection can get to the front and once doing so it could prove hard to catch and does have decent trainer stats at this course and the jockey does quite well when riding for this stable and will be the one carrying my money in this race, with only 7 runners i am not sure if it is worth backing each way as there is only two places up for grabs. 

Royal Birth 22/1 6th -2pts 

Lay bet: Venturous +1pt

Total -1pt 

WOLVERHAMPTON 7.00 Div I

This class 6 race isn't great even for the class with only 5 of the 11 runners having a rating on my figures, I will look to lay Okaldi 3/1 who may need further if its a single figure price at the off and at the price on offer it looks poor value in my eyes, It Must Be Faith, Thegreyvtrain, Morty and Red Allure could all go well here if running to their best and I wouldn't put anyone off backing anyone of them but as for myself I will take a risk with a punt on BILLY DYLAN 9/2 although all the data, apart from its speed figure, says leave it alone, the trainer hasn't had a winner for 369 days but has only has 33 runners during that time, the trainer has a 3% win ratio at this course and the jockey is 0-11 for this stable and the horse hasn't won in 16 attempts on an artificial surface but has been placed in 4 of those 16 races but this is such a poor race a reproduction of its best time speed figure would see it winning this race a shade cosily. 

Billy Dylan 9/2 9th -1pt

Total -1pt 

WOLVERHAMPTON 7.30 Div II

This 2nd division is dire and I have negatives against 7 of the 11 runners but in such a poor race I couldn't recommend with any confidence laying any of those 7 runners, the one that might set the pace to this race is SHESADABBER 11/1 (EW) who comes 3rd top on my figures and with an easy lead it could be dangerous and hold on for the win so at the price it might be worth an each way flutter, to show how bad this race actually is QAARAAT 7/4 is forecast to be the two to one favourite and its best time, which was recorded in 2019, it would be my top rated but drops down to 2nd best on overall figures and at the price doesn't really represent any value but I couldn't say it wont or cant win so I cannot bet in this race without it carrying some of my money while LORNA COLE 20/1 (EW) comes out top rated on just 2021 speed figures and 2nd top overall but hasn't been in good form lately but looks value for an each way punt, none of the three have good trainer/jockey stats and none of them have had a winner in the last 2 weeks. I might look to dutch the three highlighted horses but in reality this race is maybe best left alone, the betting might be the deciding factor in whether I have a bet or not but I don't want people to lose money so again its best left alone, hey ho decisions decisions.

Lorna Cole 20/1 6th -2pts 

Qaaraat 11/4 8th -1pt 

Shesadabber 33/1 Unp -2pt 

Total -5pts

Total on the day -7pts