Only 5 runners but an intriguing race, Shallow Hal has been in poor form lately and I expect it will be the outsider in this race, The Last Lion a hold up type and Above who likes to track the leaders both need to improve time wise to win this race, REGIONAL 11/8 I expect will be the favourite and as it is the one I expect to set the pace to the race this 3yo could be hard to catch and wouldn't need to improve much on its best turf speed figure on its debut here on an artificial surface to hold CORINTHIA KNIGHT 7/1 at bay in the latter stages but I do have the latter horse rated a few spots higher on my speed figures, it likes to track the leaders and then stay on strongly at the finish and this race could be run to suit it but I will have to back them both to cover the angles.
Regional 6/4 2nd -1pt
Corinthia Knight 16/1 5th
Total -2pts
CHELMSFORD 6.00
A full house of 14 for this race with three horses that are known as front running sorts which means I can look to lay Shalaa Asker 11/2 who I think is better over a shorter distance, Stay Smart in stall 2 could be the one to gain control of the rails and it is my 3rd top rated but it hasn't been in the best of form lately but being a 3yo it could go well especially if getting a quick exit from the stalls, my top rated is Garth Rockett 16/1 recording its best time in 2020 but this one hasn't shown anything since February this year and that time is well below its best from the previous year, to make me think this race will see it back to winning ways and the bookies seem to agree, so my money will be riding on another 3yo in the shape of BIG BARD 2/1 who has won its last two races and has been found a very good opportunity to complete the hat trick despite being stuck out in stall 13 as it might be able to follow another front running type Secret Glow from stall 14 across towards the rails and then gain a good position from which to attack in the closing stages of the race.
Big Bard 2/1 6th -1pt
Lay bet: Shalaa Asker +1pt
Total 0pts
CHELMSFORD 6.30
A field of 12 for this class 6 race and at first glance its a bit of a strange race to analyse and any stakes have to be kept low, Shanghai Rocks 13/2 might need further to show its best but as its a 3yo I’m not sure whether I can lay it or not but it might be worth the risk if the price is right but I think its current price is a little bit too high to be of value for the lay while anything under 5/1 I might have taken the risk, the same can apply to Lethal Angel 15/2, my top two ratings are both horses that like to set the pace to races, MOVEONUP 14/1 (EW) is my 2nd top rated and that is using a time it recorded when winning over this course and distance in 2020 but this one has been in poor form lately but if it springs back to form it could go well and I expect the apprentice jockeys instructions will simply be to try to get to the front, I would probably have only backed TILSWORTH ROSE 20/1 (EW) in this race if it wasn't for the poor 0-8 jockey stats and the trainers poorish 6% win ratio at this course but this one won four races ago and could be the one to gain control of the rails which are important on the bends, I will back them both but maybe with my stakes tilted in the favour of the latter and my top rated horse, at the prices I will be having a couple of small each way punts.
Moveonup 16/1 8th 2pt
Tilsworth Rose 33/1 9th -2pts
Total -4pts
Total on the day -4pts
1 comment:
Hoping Shallow Hal runs well in first time blinkers back on the AW.
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