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Monday, 6 December 2021

4:30 Southwell Racing Tips (7th December)

Today is the first day at Southwell with the newly laid Tapeta surface so I haven’t any form or speed figures to work with but have done my best using times from Newcastle and Wolverhampton but a lot of it it guesswork so I will be very careful in my thoughts and I am thinking that as Wolverhampton has a bend over 6 furlongs it might be the more relevant course for its speed figures while over 5 furlongs at Southwell its a straight course the same as Newcastle so those times might be the more relevant ratings. (well I hope so). 

SOUTHWELL 4.30 5F 

OK this is a straight 5 furlongs where I can see 4 horses that have been known to lead before and 3 of them are in my top 4 ratings so its likely this race will be won from the front, I will look to lay Zarzyni 7/1 who looks better over further any other possible lays are double figure prices, Be Proud 14/1 is my 3rd top rated and could do best of those coming from off the pace and its best times were from Newcastle so might be worth an each way interest, going back to 2020 times then Ornate 22/1 would be in the mix but its not been in good form lately and seems to be regressing at the age of 8 and its price seems to agree, I am hoping that NIGHT ON EARTH can lead or at least contest the lead from the off and if getting to the front ought to prove hard to catch and it has good trainer/jockeys stats. 

Night On Earth 9/2 Unp -1pt

Total -1pt

SOUTHWELL 7.30 6F 

With no known front runners this race is much harder to analyse, firstly I will look to lay Capla Spirit who prefers a shorter distance and hope there is a decent early pace also Grey Galleon if they are single figure prices, The Thin Blue Line 9/1 is my 4th top rated and this one is usually held up for a laterun so this race might not be run to suit it and i will lay the win part if its of value but it could possibly make the frame but I'm not sure it can win this race, Steelriver comes out in 3rd top spot using its top rating from 2020 and has been well below that level so far this year, not much time left to alter that now, Tomshalfbrother is another that recorded its best rating in 2020 which makes it my 2nd top rated but my money will be riding on REDZONE 5/1, who becomes my top rated thanks to the apprentice jockeys 7lb claim, it won last time out and has been found the ideal opportunity to follow up here.

Redzone 5/1 1st +5pts 

Lay bet Grey Gallion +1pt 

Total +6pts 

Total on the day  +5pts

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