5:15 Newcastle Racing Tips (4th November)

NEWCASTLE 5.15 Div I

As to be expected not the best of sprints but I guess not too bad for a class 5 race, there's 12 entrants of which 4 have been known to lead before. Eldeyaar is one of the four but its wins have come in lower class races being a 3yo it could improve hasn't been able to win at this level so far, Jordan Electrics has a fast time from 2021 but it might have been towed along in a fast run race but hasn't won in 4 previous runs on an artificial surface it could make the frame but its been over thirty days and 10 runners since the stable last had a winner which makes me think they will be setting the race up for something coming from off the pace. Hail Sezer 7/2 stays on at the finish over this distance but maybe too late but does have a decent time recorded at Southwell so not something I could lay with confidence but doesn't look value in my opinion. The top weight So Grateful 6/1 needs to improve on both its best time over this course and distance and its rating from Southwell so maybe worth laying if a single figure price. I will be backing REDZONE 10/1 (EW) who usually likes to track the leaders and then stay on at the finish and stall 10 should be ideal for it in the make-up of this race, the stable has been in good form lately and the jockey booking looks a positive booking and as usual at the price it has to be an each way bet. 

Redzone 12/1 Unp -2pts 

Total -2pts

NEWCASTLE 5.45 Div II

I think the early pace will be set by Shes A Danger but I doubt it will do enough to win the race, Huraiz might have been flattered by its best rating at Lingfield last year and hasn't shown much over this course and distance since 2019. Pockley 11/2 could run ok but would need to improve time wise to win this race, if the tissue betting is to be believed then Kapono 5/1 will be the favourite (it isn't) which I cannot understand and if a short enough price to be of poor value then I would look to lay it. STARSONG 9/4 has won its last 2 races over this course and distance and at Southwell and is my top rated on both set of figures so looks to have been found a good opportunity to complete its hat trick and it will be carrying my money. 

Starsong 9/4 Unp -1pt 

Lay bet Kapono +1pt 

Total -0pt 

Total on the day -2pts 

4:30 Southwell Racing Tips (7th December)

Today is the first day at Southwell with the newly laid Tapeta surface so I haven’t any form or speed figures to work with but have done my best using times from Newcastle and Wolverhampton but a lot of it it guesswork so I will be very careful in my thoughts and I am thinking that as Wolverhampton has a bend over 6 furlongs it might be the more relevant course for its speed figures while over 5 furlongs at Southwell its a straight course the same as Newcastle so those times might be the more relevant ratings. (well I hope so). 

SOUTHWELL 4.30 5F 

OK this is a straight 5 furlongs where I can see 4 horses that have been known to lead before and 3 of them are in my top 4 ratings so its likely this race will be won from the front, I will look to lay Zarzyni 7/1 who looks better over further any other possible lays are double figure prices, Be Proud 14/1 is my 3rd top rated and could do best of those coming from off the pace and its best times were from Newcastle so might be worth an each way interest, going back to 2020 times then Ornate 22/1 would be in the mix but its not been in good form lately and seems to be regressing at the age of 8 and its price seems to agree, I am hoping that NIGHT ON EARTH can lead or at least contest the lead from the off and if getting to the front ought to prove hard to catch and it has good trainer/jockeys stats. 

Night On Earth 9/2 Unp -1pt

Total -1pt

SOUTHWELL 7.30 6F 

With no known front runners this race is much harder to analyse, firstly I will look to lay Capla Spirit who prefers a shorter distance and hope there is a decent early pace also Grey Galleon if they are single figure prices, The Thin Blue Line 9/1 is my 4th top rated and this one is usually held up for a laterun so this race might not be run to suit it and i will lay the win part if its of value but it could possibly make the frame but I'm not sure it can win this race, Steelriver comes out in 3rd top spot using its top rating from 2020 and has been well below that level so far this year, not much time left to alter that now, Tomshalfbrother is another that recorded its best rating in 2020 which makes it my 2nd top rated but my money will be riding on REDZONE 5/1, who becomes my top rated thanks to the apprentice jockeys 7lb claim, it won last time out and has been found the ideal opportunity to follow up here.

Redzone 5/1 1st +5pts 

Lay bet Grey Gallion +1pt 

Total +6pts 

Total on the day  +5pts

1:45 Lingfield Racing Tips (30th November)

LINGFIELD 1.45 

Only 5 runners for this class 3 sprint, Benny And The Jets may need this run for fitness and is also better when raced over a shorter trip, Global Warning has been in poor form lately and is the outsider in the field, I'm not convinced this surface is the favoured one for Mount Mogan although its best Newcastle rating would make it my top rated, Rovanlemi ha poor jockey stats 0-18 and may need a longer trip which leaves me with TOP BREEZE 11/4 I expect will be the favourite but is capable of leading all the way against today's opposition.

Top breeze 11/4 4th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

NEWCASTLE 3.45 

I can see 4 front running types in this field of 14, I've marked 5 down as possible lays but looking at the tissue prices only Captain Corcoran might be of value to do so, Ballyare 9/2 is usually held up for a late run and its best rating from 2020 would make it my 2nd top rated while its best from 2021 would only put it in 4th top spot but isn't any value to do as an each way bet, For Peats Sake 11/1 likes to track the leaders and is 2nd top rated on just 2021 times but 3rd top overall so could be worth an each way punt, Lordsbridge Boy 6/1 is a front running type and has stall 1 which i am not sure is a positive on this straight course while my top rated ROYDMOOR 20/1 (EW) is also a front running type but has stall 10 and if getting to the front ought to prove hard to catch and at the price i would have to go with an each way punt. 

Roydmoor 20/1 1st +20pts 

Total +20pts

NEWCASTLE 5.45 

Morty 7/2 has won its last 2 races so is in rude form but I still think its best distance is further than today's and with only one runner in this race known as a front runner this race might not be run to suit it and it would also need to improve on its best Tapeta figure from Wolverhampton, if Sharrabang is a single figure price I would look to lay it as this one wants a longer distance, COOL SPIRIT 12/1 my 4th top rated is the one I think will set the pace to the race and has a good draw in stall 14 so will be dangerous if allowed an easy lead, TOMILY 18/1 comes out 3rd best and usually likes to track the leaders and then run on at the finish, QAARAAT 12/1 also likes to track the leaders and comes out 2nd best using a 2020 c/d speed figure but has been running a stone below that level so far this year, ORIENTAL LILLY 11/2 comes out top rated using a 2019 figure but hasn't run over this c/d since then and is usually held up for a late surge, none of the selections have good trainer/jockey stats or the stable has been out of form recently so I will dutch all 4 of them to a total stake of two points. 

Oriental Lily 11/2 2nd -0.5pts 

Qaaraat 12/1 3rd -0.5pts 

Cool Spirit 14/1 9th -0.5pts

Tomily 25/1 Unp -0.5pts 

Lay bet: Sharrabang +1pt 

Total -1pts

NEWCASTLE 6.15 Div I 

I will hopefully be able to lay Birdie Bowers 15/2 in this first division, it is still a maiden after 11 runs, has poor trainer/jockey stats and the stable hasn't had a winner for 40 days from 10 runners, I think Lancashire Life 8/1 could set the pace to the race and it does come out 2nd best on my figures but the jockey/trainer stats with 3yo’s at this course is poor which puts me off a little but it could possibly make the frame, Atrafan comes out 4th best on my figures with The Grey Bay sitting in 3rd top spot and both can either be held up for a late run or track the leaders and then stay on strongly at the finish so either of these two could also make the frame but I will be putting my faith in the top weight REDZONE 9/2 who likes to track the early pacemakers before staying on the stronger at the finish and stall 12 should be ideal but the trainers recent 0-16 means my stake will be kept low. 

Redzone 9/2 1st +4.5pts 

Lay bets: Birdie Bowers +1pt 

Total +5pts

NEWCASTLE 6.45 Div II 

In this race I will look to lay Barrington 9/1 if its a single figure price because I don't think this surface really suits it whereas if this race was on polytrack it would probably be the one I would be backing, I have just 3lbs between Hurstwood, Paddy Power and The Mackem Torpedo in 6th to 4th top spots on my figures, I've got joint 2nd top rated horses with Red Allure and Sleight, the former can be held up or track the leaders while the latter is usually held up for a late burst but I will be back the 3yo FIRCOMBE HALL 13/2 who has a time from 2020 which makes it my top rated by 9lb’s but I have to admit its not been at that level so far this year but did indicate it was coming to hand when finishing 2nd last time out and could go one better here.

Fircombe Hall 1st +6.5pts 

Total +6.5pts 

Total on the day:  +29.5pts