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Tuesday, 11 January 2022

1:05 Lingfield Racing Tips (12th January)

LINGFIELD 1.05 

EL HOMBRE is dropped in class to run here and recorded a good speed figure lat time out when it finished second and it is my top rated.

MOBARHIN has good trainer and jockey stats but hasn't run over this c/d before and its best time from Kempton needs improving on to win this race so maybe worth laying at 5/1. 

DEWEY ROAD comes out 3rd best on my speed figures using a time recorded at Chelmsford in 2020 and was only 3lbs lower in 2021.

LA ROCA DEL FUEGO the trainer is 1-25 at this course the jockey is 1-3 for the stable so mixed messages as to what it will do but its not for me in this race but could possibly lead.

BEZZA'S LAD 9/1 the 2nd of the 2 known pacesetters in the race and in stall 3, but would need to improve time wise to win this race and will be a lay if stays a single figure price.

CAPPANANTY CON the trainer has a poor 7% win ratio at this course but using a time it recorded at Kempton in 2021 it comes out in 2nd top spot.

THE COLA KID has good trainer stats with a 31% strike rate but the horse is 0-12 on its runs on an artificial surface which puts me off its chances.

DEPUTISE hasn't any recent course and distance form to its name and its best speed figure from 2020 isn't good enough to win this race but has a high rating from Wolverhampton.

MOUSMEE has only poor form to its name and would be a big surprise if this one won and I expect it will be one of the outsiders in this race. 

SUMMARY: As for what to lay in this race it will depend on the betting, Dewey Road, Cappananty Con and The Cola Kid have pieces of form and the odd speed figure which would make them competitive in this race but my money will be riding on the top weight EL HOMBRE 7/2 who is dropped in class to run in this race and has been found a good opportunity to go one better after finished second last time out. 

El Hombre 7/2 4th -1pt

Lay bet Mobarhin -3.5pts Bezzas Lad +1pt

Total -3.5pts

LINGFIELD 2.05 

STRONG POWER has won its last 2 races by flying at the finish and it could possibly do the same again here but on my ratings its a very competitive race and I doubt it will be a value price. 

LETHAL BLAST has poor trainer/jockey stats and its 155 days since the stables last winner but it could be the one to set the pace to the race and could go very well if allowed an easy lead. 

STORM MELODY this one has good jockey stats and likes to track the leaders but the stable hasn't had a winner for over 3 weeks which is a bit off-putting. 

LOTHIAN has poorish trainer stats, 83 days since their last winner, and the jockey is 2-93 for the stable but will be trying to run on strongly nearing the finish.

MICK'S SPIRIT has poorish trainer stats with a 6% win ratio but time wise its comes out third top rated.

HEY HO GETS GO has a good speed figure but not recorded when racing at this level so may be out-classed in this race. 

SUMMARY: The top weight won very well in a class 6 race and then last time out won a class 2 race both times with a devastating burst nearing the finish but its now in a class 5 race giving weight away to the field, is it up to it,I'm not sure but I wouldn't back it at odds on but dare I back against it, the answer is probably no so its maybe best to leave the race alone.

Total on the day -3.5pts

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