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Monday, 10 January 2022

4:20 Southwell Racing Tips (11th January)

SOUTHWELL 4.20 

I am never quite sure what to make of these apprentice races where they carry whips but are not allowed to use them, if you are cleverer than me you perhaps know the answer to this question: Which horses respond to a jockey's urging without the use of the whip because I am certain some horses do not and will not give their all without a reminder or two from the whip so in all reality these races should be left alone but I might have found a nugget or two for this race. It is fairly close at the top of my speed figures and You're Cool, Brandy Station and The Tron could go well but the three of those trainers have not had a winner in the last 2 weeks which is a bit off-putting. The early pace could be set by Jean's Maite and/or May The Sixth but both sit just outside my top five ratings so could be worth laying during the race if they are in front. While Papa's Girl is 2nd top on just course and distance times since the new surface was laid but I do have MISS SEAFIRE 12/1 (EW) rated just a little bit higher and the 5lbs the apprentice claims could be the deciding factor although he is 0-3 for the stable but that isn't enough data to make it a reliable fact but the trainer does have a 22% win ratio at this course and 3-18 record in apprentice races so at the price I will go with an each way bet, my top rated on this surface, but at either Newcastle or Wolverhampton, is GLORIOUS CHARMER 13/2 and this ones trainer has a 3-14 win ratio in apprentice races, I will be backing them both but I cannot be betting too heavily in a low class apprentice race on a newly laid surface, so one win bet and one each way is the way I will be going in this race along with a lay on Gossip 8/1 if it stays a single figure price.

Miss Seafire 20/1 2nd +4pts 
Glorious Charmer 9/1 6th -1pt

Total +3pts 

SOUTHWELL 7.50 

The lack of early pace in this race could be a problem but I will be both laying and backing in this race, I will be looking to lay *Starter For Ten 11/4 who won last time out but that speed figure is only good enough for 4th top spot and is therefore poor value, so it only takes one of my top 3 to run to their best then it cannot win and as its forecast to be the favourite it would be of poor value to back, I will also look to lay Toptime 13/2 who won at Kempton but that also was a slow run race so both of them might have been flattered. Ginato is actually my 2nd top rated but it has poor trainer/jockey stats and the stable hasn't had a winner for over two months which puts me off its chances and stall 12 could be the deciding factor on why I will not be backing this runner, DEEVIOUS BEAU 8/1 is my 3rd top rated and the trainer is 3-6 for the last two weeks, so is in good form, the trainer also has a good 21% strike-rate at this course and the jockey has a 22% win ratio for the stable so has to carry some of my money but I do have STORM OVER 33/1 (EW) rated higher and if it had been in good form it might have been my sole selection but it can spring back to form without warning so I cannot let it run without some of my money riding on it each way especially at such a big price.

*NR

Storm Over 33/1 9th -2pts 
Deevious Beau 8/1 Unp -1pt

Total -3pts

Total on the day 0pts

Lay bets must be single figure odds at sp

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