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Friday, 7 January 2022

11:30 Lingfield Racing Tips (8th January)

LINGFIELD 11.30 

BUY ME BACK 11/2 is a versatile type but has just a slow time from its only previous c/d run last year and its best from here in 2020 and also its best from Kempton last year means it will have to improve to win this race and one to look to lay.

ALABLAQ 3/1 hasn't any form at all on this Polytrack surface and looking at its form it might prefer a longer distance to show its true potential and its best over this distance but on the Tapeta surface leaves it just outside my top 3 ratings.

HELVETIAN 3/1 has speed figure from 2020 that would make it my joint second top rated in this race while its best from 2021 drops out of my top 4, so it could go well but I wouldn't want to rely on it reproducing its best. 

VAPE 7/1 this one hasn't any course and distance form to its name but its best speed figure from Chelmsford in 2021 would make it my other second top rated horse so it could go well but hasn't been in good form on its last three runs. 

COME ON GIRL 3/1 has a speed figure over this course and distance that makes it my top rated and it has 6lb better rating from Chelmsford this year, it has the stall 1 draw so should be able to stay on the rails and from a good position stay on strongly at the finish for the win. 

LUA DE MEL 16/1 didn't run over this course and distance in 2021 while its best from 2020 would leave it just outside my top three ratings but it is a front running type and could set the pace to this race and could do better if allowed an easy lead. 

SUMMARY: I expect Lua De Mel to set the pace with Buy Me Back making sure it doesn't get an easy lead but I doubt either can win this race, Vape and Helvetian come out joint 2nd top rated but if COME ON GIRL 3/1 reproduces its best rating it should win with a bit in hand. 

Come On Girl 3/1 2nd -1pt 

Lay bet Buy Me Back +1pt

Total 0pts

KEMPTON 6.45 

APOLLO ONE 6/1 is one of four known front running types in this race but it might not have the pace to lead at this distance as further might suit it better, the trainer hasn't had a winner for nearly 300 days so I would look to lay this one.

EDRAAK 13/8 the only one in this race that doesn't like to front run and its my top rated on just 2021/22 ratings although it did produce that figure at Chelmsford and hasn't run over this course and distance before.

FERNANDO RAH 15/2 has good jockey stats but time wise it would need to improve a bit on its best time from Newcastle so may not be of relevance while its best course and distance time leaves it with a mountain to climb. 

FIVETHOUSANDTOONE 11/2 comes out in 2nd top spot on 2021/22 speed figures but it is only good enough for 4th top overall, it has decent trainer/jockey stats but i would look to lay this horse if a single figure price.

LORD OF THE LODGE 9/4 actually comes out in top spot if i use its best rating recorded in 2021 at Wolverhampton, it hasn't run on this surface before so I am not sure what to expect from this horses so neither a bet or a lay. 

SUMMARY: With 4 of the 5 runners liking to lead this could be a fast and furious race and they might push each other too hard from the off and then set the race up for the only horse that likes a fast target to aim at and EDRAAK 13/8 should have this race run to suit its style and will be carrying my money but I was hoping for a bit bigger price.

Edraak 13/8 3rd -1pt 

Lay bets Apollo One +1pt, Fivethousandtoone +1pt

Total +1pt

Total on the day  +1pt

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