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Saturday, 8 January 2022

3:10 Southwell Racing Tips (9th January)

SOUTHWELL 3.10 

ABERAMA GOLD 10/1 its best rating on this Tapeta surface at Wolverhampton is quite a bit below what is required to win this race but its best over all rating on the Polytrack surface at Lingfield would make it my co 2nd top rated of 3 horses but I would look to lay it if of value. 

HELLO ME this horse is more than capable of reproducing its best speed figure but even that might not be enough to win this race but this 4yo is in cracking form and improving so could at least go well but at 11/4 it isn't of value. 

ASTRO JAKK has got good, 24% trainer, and 20% jockey, stats and is another of the 3 joint 2nd top rated horses in this race this time using a rating recorded in 2021 at Newcastle if getting a clear run from stall 10 it could go well. 

MOHAREB 8/1 is one of 4 known front running types in this race and started off as joint top rated using a time recorded at Newcastle in 2020 but the jockeys 3lb claim moves it to top spot so has to be respected and could go well. 

SOAR ABOVE hasn't run on this surface before and would need to improve time wise for the switch to this surface, it has pretty poor trainer/jockey stats so maybe this isn't its intended target. 

LOUIE DE PALMA is the 2nd of the 4 potential pacesetters in this race and in stall 4 it is nearest the rails of the front runners, it has good trainer/jockey stats but will need to improve on the time it recorded last time out over this c/d 24 days ago. 

FAUVETTE 4/1 has the plum stall 1 draw and usually likes to track the leaders so could get a good position on the rails just behind the leaders and ready to pounce nearing the finish and its another with good trainer/jockey stats. 

INVINCIBLE LARNE has poorish trainer/jockey stats and the trainer is 0-13 in the last 2 weeks and usually tracks the leaders or runs in midfield but would need to improve a little time wise to win this race. 

TEMPLE BRUER number three of the potential pacesetters in this race but has poor trainer/jockey stats and one i would look to lay if a single figure price, which i very much doubt it will be. 

REBEL REDEMPTION the fourth possible front runner but has poorish trainer/jockey stats and will need to improve time wise to be winning this race and will be one of the outsiders. 

SUMMARY: With the four possible front runners in this race it could be a fast and furious early pace and they might then fade and set the race up for one finishing from off the pace both ASTRO JAKK 8/1 and FAUVETTE 4/1 fit that bill and they both have the same speed figure so it might be down to which one gets the clearest passage throughout the race so I will be backing them both but if from stall five MOHAREB 8/1 gets to the front it could be the one to lead all the way so hopefully i will be able to dutch the three of them.

Lay bets must be single figure odds at sp 

Mohareb 8/1 1st +8pts 
Favette 4/1 4th -1pt
Astro Jakk 10/1 7th -1pt 

Lay bet Aberama Gold +1pt

Total +7pts

Total on the day +7pts 

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