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Thursday, 6 January 2022

2:15 Lingfield Racing Tips (7th January)

LINGFIELD 2.15 

A poor turnout of just five runner for this class 2 race, there is two front running types amongst them in the shape of Marnie James and Ornate and of the pair maybe the latter will do best of them as it does come out top on my ratings using a time from 2020 while the former comes out in 2nd top spot on just 2021/22 times, Strong Power won convincingly last time out and deserves a shot at this level, Shallow Hal might be worth taking on if a single figure price as its usually better over a longer distance, the top weight Tone The Barone 5/6 is giving a lot away in this race as its official figure is between 12 and 19 pounds higher than the others, it is forecast to be the hot favourite but I am not convinced so maybe taking this one on with a lay bet is the value call in this race as you lose very little laying a hot favourite. 

Lay bet Tone The Barone +1pt (good work from Eric laying an odds-on to lose) 

Total +1pt

WOLVERHAMPTON 4.00 

Only seven runners in this race and again there is two known front running types, Jessie Pye and Notoriously Risky who comes out 3rd best on my figures so should do best of the pair, I'm not sure if there is anything of value to lay in this race so I will be having a small wager on the top weight INEVITABLE OUTCOME 9/2 who is usually held up for a late run and this race could be run to suit it. 

Inevitable Outcome 9/2 1st +4.5pts

Total +4.5pts

WOLVERHAMPTON 5.30 

This is one of those class 6 stakes race for horses with an official rating of 50 or less so in other words the bottom of the barrel, one piece of advice if other races follow the same pattern, the form in these low class races from class 5 downwards are much more reliable than they are on turf, I've no idea of why unless its the varying going that makes them impossible to analyse. I think Final Verse 5/1 needs further to show its best so maybe worth laying in this race, Glen Rosa my 4th top rated is a possible pacesetter in this race, I've got joint 2nd top rated horses, Captain Ryan is another possible pacesetter but it only comes out 2nd top using a speed figure from 2019 so I'm not sure if it can repeat that figure as its best from last year was way below that level, the other 2nd top rated is BLUELLA 8/1 and that is using a 2021 time and should be staying on in the closing stages of the race but I do have BLACKCURRENT 6/1 rated higher but in this ones case the speed figure comes from Newcastle which it recorded last time out last month and if able to reproduce that figure it would be winning this race a shade cosily and does have good jockey stats.

Blackcurrent 6/1 1st (dht) +3pts  
Bluella 12/1 8th -1pt 

Lay bet Final Verse +1pt 

Total +3pts 

Total on the day +8.5pts 

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