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Monday, 3 January 2022

12:30 Lingfield Racing Tips (4th January)

LINGFIELD 12.30 

Five sprints today so just a quick summary for each race, I will look to lay Capla Spirit 5/1 who might find this distance too far for it in what should be a fast run affair, Hurcle comes out 3rd top on my figures so could make the frame but it would need to bounce back to form after poor recent form but I think a future target will be in their mind, Inaam 14/1 comes out 2nd top rated using a 2020 rating and will be trying to stay on strongly nearing the finish and could make the frame while the front running top rated HOWZAK 9/2 recorded its best figure in 2021 and was running very well on this surface and is 1lb lower than when it finished 2nd on this surface 3 runs ago and is drawn nearest the rail of the known front running types in this race, its last 2 runs on the Tapeta surface can maybe ignored and the switch back to the Polytrack surface could be just what's needed to return to winning ways.

Howzak 9/2 9th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

LINGFIELD 2.00 

Firstly I will look to lay Porfin 5/4 who won last time out over 6 furlongs so maybe a shorter price than it merits and I don't think this drop down in trip will suit it and stall 8 might not help its cause either and at the price looks poor value, there is several horses in this race that are capable of making the frame, Big Time Maybe, Sword Exceed, Moveonup and Hurricane Alert who all have bits of form and ratings that could see them run ok and any of them could feasibly make the frame but my money will be riding on THEGREYVTRAIN 6/1 who is a front running sort who has won twice on this surface and one of those wins was over this c/d and did show a sign of revival in form when finishing 4th last time out and its best speed figure from 2021 would see it winning with a bit in hand.

Thegreyvtrain 8/1 2nd -1pt 

Lay bet Porfin - .83pts

Total -1.83pts

NEWCASTLE 5.30 Div II

As usual I will start with the lay bets, the top weighted Bakr 3/1 looks a better horse when racing over further and its only win came over 7 furlongs, Nellie French 8/1 looks a better prospect over a shorter distance and this race wont be run to suit it and I will lay them both if single figure prices, the front running Seeking Perfection 12/1 hasn't shown much lately but does reserve its best for when running over this c/d and could go well here being my 2nd top rated on c/d times and 3rd top overall, Clashaniska 12/1 could do best of those coming from off the pace and if its best figure from Lingfield can be replicated here it could go well but its best c/d figure is a good few spots below that level but either of the pair could make the frame, my money once again today will be riding on a front running type again in the shape of LANCASHIRE LIFE 7/1 who has the coveted stall 1 draw and I am hoping it can lead all the way.

Lancashire Life 14/1 8th -2pts

Lay bet Bakr +1pt 

Total -1pt

NEWCASTLE 6.00 Div II  

This division is bloody difficult to analyse, firstly there isn't any known front running types in the race so Penombre who I was going to lay because I think its a better horse over shorter distance is now left alone, time wise the race evolves around 3 runners, Good Night Mr Tom 7/1 is 3rd top rated but has been way below form lately, Sleight 15/2 comes out in 2nd top position overall an top rated on just 2021 figures but this horse is still a maiden after 15 attempts, Fircombe Hall 10/3 comes out top rated using a time recorded in 2020 but the jockey is 0-4 for the stable and its been 25 days since the stable last had a winner. I could dutch all 3 of them but the latter is forecast to be a fairly short, 9/4, favourite, and I hate backing favourites especially in low class races.

NEWCASTLE 6.30

I am back to giving my lays first here, Whittle Le Woods 7/2 isn't in my top 4 ratings and if past data is to be believed it should need at least this run to gain fitness after being off for 140 days, Late Arrival 7/2 who is one of four runners that have been known to lead won last time out over this c/d but that was a slow run race so it might have been flattered by that result and may therefore be poor value in this race, Tathmeen who is versatile when it comes to racing tactics hasn't been in form lately but its best figures from 2020 makes it my 3rd top rated, Stay Smart comes out 2nd top and is a front running type and could do best of those racing to the fore but the fast early pace gives BURROWS SEESIDE 10/3 the right sort of target to aim at as it will be staying on strongly while the front runners could be fading nearing the finish but the trainer is 0-14 in the last 2 weeks which will temper my stakes.

Burrow's Seeside 13/2 3rd -1pt 

Lay bets Whittle Le Woods +1pt, Late Arrival +1pt 

Total +1pt 

Total on the day -2.83pts

Lay bets must be single-figure odds at sp 

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