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Sunday 2 January 2022

3:40 Lingfield Racing Tips (3rd January)


LOTHIAN has only recorded slow times in its 2 races over this course and distance mainly because I think it needs a longer distance to show its true worth, the trainer has a poor 6% win ratio at this course and the jockey is 0-9 for the stable, also the trainer is 0-9 in the last 2 weeks but not value at 18/1 to lay.

STRONG POWER this ones trainer does well at this course with 3-11 winners with the stables older horses but hes 0-11 in the last fortnight and would need to improve a few spots time wise to win this race and this horse hasn't shown much in its latest runs so maybe worth taking on at 3/1. 

MICK'S SPIRIT its been 36 days since the trainer last had a winner and a record of 1-33 with their older horses at this course and would need to improve time wise to win this race and stall 8 isn't going to help its cause so maybe another to lay at 3/1. 

SHAMSHON is my 2nd top rated on 2021 course and distance races and its best time from 2020 plus the apprentices 7lb claim moves it to top spot on my overall figures, the trainer is 4-10 in the last 2 weeks so has to be respected here.

FOR PEAT'S SAKE has average trainer stats but the jockey is only 1-13 on the stables older horses and has had 3 winners from 27 runners in the last two weeks, it is my second top rated on just 2021 course and distance times and could make the frame but 4/1 isn't an each way price. 

HEY HO LETS GO its been nearly 300 days since this stable last had a winner on the flat, the jockeys record is 0-8 for the stable but time wise it has the highest rating for just 2021 course and distance times and that's good enough for 3rd top overall rating and could make the frame. 

WINGS OF A DOVE could be the one to set the pace to this race but would need to be allowed a very easy lead to old on for the win but does have good trainer/jockey stats but its been 19 days since the stable last had a winner and I expect it to be an outsider. 

SHANGHAI ROCK this one might be a better prospect when racing over a longer distance and the trainer hasn't had a winner in the last 16 days from 11 runners and I expect it will be one of the outsiders in this race. 

TILSWORTH ROSE hasn't been in good form in its recent races but has got a good rating from early in 2020 which would see it being very competitive but the trainer hasn't had a winner from 28 runners in the last 37 days and the stables poor win ratio of 3% at this course puts me off its chances. 

SUMMARY: The most likely pacesetter has the stall 1 draw but I doubt Wings Of A Dove can win this race, most of the other runners usually track the leaders, Tilsworth Rose, Hey Ho Lets Go and For Peat's Sake all have pieces of form that would make them competitive in this race but my money will be riding on SHAMSHON 7/2 who is my top rated and if the apprentice jockey is worth the 7lb claim that could tip things in its favour, he has won won once from 4 rides for this stable and that win did come when riding an older horse from the stable.

Shamshon 14/1 5th -1pt

Lay bets Mick's Spirit +1pt

Total on the day 0pts 

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