1:10 Southwell Racing Tips (20th December)

SOUTHWELL 1.10 

A 5 furlong class 5 dash with 10 runners and half, 5, of them have been known to lead before and my top 3 ratings are all front running types. I will look to lay Yimou 15/2 as its a better horse over a longer distance, Twilight Madness stall 5, is going for the hattrick here and is my 3rd top rated horse using just course and distance ratings, Never Dark in stall 2 comes out in 2nd top spot but if JEAN'S MAITE 5/1 can reproduce its last rating when leading all the way last time out then it would follow up here and has been found a good opportunity to do just that. 

Jean's Maite 4/1 4th -1pt 

Total -1pt

SOUTHWELL 4.30 Div I

As to be expected not a great class 6 sprint but there is a couple of front runners which always helps, Breach 7/1 who is a hold up type of horse is out in stall 11 so it will need a degree of luck when coming to challenge and if its a single figure price, as forecast on the tissue prices, then I would look to lay it. I'm hoping that PORTELET BAY 20/1 who is my top rated on Tapeta ratings from elsewhere can lead here and if doing so it ought to be hard to catch, its form has as usual been erratic but its a horse that can win without any prior indication which also applies to THE COLA KID 25/1 and this one is my top rated on course and distance ratings and at the prices I have to go with 2 each way bets. 

The Cola Kid 25/1 6th -1pt 

Portelet Bay 40/1 8th -1pt 

Total -2pts

NEWCASTLE 4.45

A poor turnout of just 7 runners for this class 4 sprint, Westmorlan 2/1 seems better over shorter distances and Barney's Boy 9/1 seems better on the Polytrack surface so will look to lay both of them, Spartan Fighter 25/1 could set the pace but has been in poor form lately but if allowed an easy lead it could go well but i think its in the race to help the chances of its stablemate BELLAGIO MAN 4/1 who seems to like a fast pace to aim at but i will be backing both stablemates but the former mainly as a covering bet and a small profit if it can hang on for the win. 

Bellagio Man 41 2nd -1pt 

Lay bets Westorian 7/2 -3.5pts, Barney's Boy +1pt

Total -3.5pts

SOUTHWELL 5.00 Div II

In this 2nd division we once again have 2 known front running types, as for any lays I an looking at both Solar Prophet 4/1 and Giselles Izzy 7/2 who both race as though a longer distance would suit them better so they should be staying on at the finish but hopefully too late to win this race. Tathmeen is my 2nd top rated on Tapeta ratings from elsewhere while Hilary's Boy is my 2nd top rated on just course and distance ratings so either could run well. Top rated on course and distance times is DELLA MARE 7/2 who usually likes to track the leaders and has the prime stall 1 draw so could stay on strong nearing the finish while the front running LANCASHIRE LIFE 22/1 is my top rated from other Tapeta ratings, if getting to the front it could lead all the way and I will back the 2 horses that come top in my 2 lists the former with a win bet and an each way bet on the double figure priced horde. 

Della Mare 6/1 -1pt 

Lancashire Life 80/1 -1pt 

Lay bets Gislles Izzy -8pts, Solar Prophet +1pt

Total -9pts

NEWCASTLE 5.45 

Another 7 runner race but this time there is a couple of front runners amongst them and of the pair Ornate could do best as its my 3rd top rated but this 9yo does seem to be on the decline but I expect it will be an outsider in this race. I will look to lay Motawaazy 11/2 who is 0-5 on an artificial surface and races as though further would suit it better, Indian Sounds will be trying to stay on at the finish but maybe too late for the win, BENEFICIARY 9/4 is my top rated on Southwell ratings and also on ratings from either here or Wolverhampton and can either be held up for a late run or track the leaders and in a small field like this I would hope it races close to the front to prevent anything getting first run on it and then it might not be able to catch it but the jockey has a decent strike rate for the stable so lets hope he adds to it here.

Beneficiary 9/4 5th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day - 16.5pts

2:43 Newcastle Racing Tips (11th December)

NEWCASTLE 2.43 Div I

A poor poor class 6 race with a field of 10 and a couple of front running types on this straight course, Catherine Chrol 3/1 is forecast to be one the favourites but I think it might be better when racing over further and I'm not convinced this Tapeta surface is right for it either so I would take the risk to lay it, if Lucky Lucky Lucky 10/1 is a single figure price near the off it might be worth a small lay bet. Atrafan is my 3rd top rated and can either track the leaders or be held up for a late run which is also the usual style deployed by Kraken Power 2/1 my 2nd top rated but this one is plenty short enough in price in my opinion. One of the 2 known front running types is Dodgy Bob who is my 4th top rated but the other possible pacesetter is ROCKLEY POINT 9/1 (EW) who last time out indicated that its coming back to form when finishing 3rd and the switch of jockeys also looks a positive one as he has a 22% strike rate on the stables older horses so from stall 10 I am hoping it can lead all the way and at the price it has to be an each way wager. 

Abandoned due to weather 

NEWCASTLE 3.13 Div II

A field of 9 for this 2nd division and once again there's a couple of known front running types amongst them, early pace is so important when trying to analyse a sprint, firstly I will look to lay Jkr Cobbler 8/1 if it stays a single figure price near the off, who might need further to show its best but is still only a 3yo so could still improve but maybe worth a small lay, Epeius 9/2 is a course and distance winner but only seems to go well when the surface is running slow or there's a lack of early pace so another one who might be worth a lay here. The top 4 in the handicap are my 5th to 2nd top rated starting from the top to bottom of the 4 so any could go well and Peachey Carnehan 4/1 is a possible pacesetter and could make the frame but isn't an each way price. My money will be riding on LANCASHIRE LIFE 11/1 (EW) who is the other possible pacesetter and if getting to the front could prove hard to catch and a repeat of its best rating when winning here last year it would be winning a shade cosily and at the price has to be an each way wager.

Abandoned due to weather 

12:30 Lingfield Racing Tips (4th January)

LINGFIELD 12.30 

Five sprints today so just a quick summary for each race, I will look to lay Capla Spirit 5/1 who might find this distance too far for it in what should be a fast run affair, Hurcle comes out 3rd top on my figures so could make the frame but it would need to bounce back to form after poor recent form but I think a future target will be in their mind, Inaam 14/1 comes out 2nd top rated using a 2020 rating and will be trying to stay on strongly nearing the finish and could make the frame while the front running top rated HOWZAK 9/2 recorded its best figure in 2021 and was running very well on this surface and is 1lb lower than when it finished 2nd on this surface 3 runs ago and is drawn nearest the rail of the known front running types in this race, its last 2 runs on the Tapeta surface can maybe ignored and the switch back to the Polytrack surface could be just what's needed to return to winning ways.

Howzak 9/2 9th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

LINGFIELD 2.00 

Firstly I will look to lay Porfin 5/4 who won last time out over 6 furlongs so maybe a shorter price than it merits and I don't think this drop down in trip will suit it and stall 8 might not help its cause either and at the price looks poor value, there is several horses in this race that are capable of making the frame, Big Time Maybe, Sword Exceed, Moveonup and Hurricane Alert who all have bits of form and ratings that could see them run ok and any of them could feasibly make the frame but my money will be riding on THEGREYVTRAIN 6/1 who is a front running sort who has won twice on this surface and one of those wins was over this c/d and did show a sign of revival in form when finishing 4th last time out and its best speed figure from 2021 would see it winning with a bit in hand.

Thegreyvtrain 8/1 2nd -1pt 

Lay bet Porfin - .83pts

Total -1.83pts

NEWCASTLE 5.30 Div II

As usual I will start with the lay bets, the top weighted Bakr 3/1 looks a better horse when racing over further and its only win came over 7 furlongs, Nellie French 8/1 looks a better prospect over a shorter distance and this race wont be run to suit it and I will lay them both if single figure prices, the front running Seeking Perfection 12/1 hasn't shown much lately but does reserve its best for when running over this c/d and could go well here being my 2nd top rated on c/d times and 3rd top overall, Clashaniska 12/1 could do best of those coming from off the pace and if its best figure from Lingfield can be replicated here it could go well but its best c/d figure is a good few spots below that level but either of the pair could make the frame, my money once again today will be riding on a front running type again in the shape of LANCASHIRE LIFE 7/1 who has the coveted stall 1 draw and I am hoping it can lead all the way.

Lancashire Life 14/1 8th -2pts

Lay bet Bakr +1pt 

Total -1pt

NEWCASTLE 6.00 Div II  

This division is bloody difficult to analyse, firstly there isn't any known front running types in the race so Penombre who I was going to lay because I think its a better horse over shorter distance is now left alone, time wise the race evolves around 3 runners, Good Night Mr Tom 7/1 is 3rd top rated but has been way below form lately, Sleight 15/2 comes out in 2nd top position overall an top rated on just 2021 figures but this horse is still a maiden after 15 attempts, Fircombe Hall 10/3 comes out top rated using a time recorded in 2020 but the jockey is 0-4 for the stable and its been 25 days since the stable last had a winner. I could dutch all 3 of them but the latter is forecast to be a fairly short, 9/4, favourite, and I hate backing favourites especially in low class races.

NEWCASTLE 6.30

I am back to giving my lays first here, Whittle Le Woods 7/2 isn't in my top 4 ratings and if past data is to be believed it should need at least this run to gain fitness after being off for 140 days, Late Arrival 7/2 who is one of four runners that have been known to lead won last time out over this c/d but that was a slow run race so it might have been flattered by that result and may therefore be poor value in this race, Tathmeen who is versatile when it comes to racing tactics hasn't been in form lately but its best figures from 2020 makes it my 3rd top rated, Stay Smart comes out 2nd top and is a front running type and could do best of those racing to the fore but the fast early pace gives BURROWS SEESIDE 10/3 the right sort of target to aim at as it will be staying on strongly while the front runners could be fading nearing the finish but the trainer is 0-14 in the last 2 weeks which will temper my stakes.

Burrow's Seeside 13/2 3rd -1pt 

Lay bets Whittle Le Woods +1pt, Late Arrival +1pt 

Total +1pt 

Total on the day -2.83pts

Lay bets must be single-figure odds at sp