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Saturday, 12 February 2022

1:50 Southwell Racing Tips (13th February)

SOUTHWELL 1.50   

An amateur jockeys race which always puts me on the back foot in betting terms as more things can go wrong compared to normal and I was going to give this race a miss but I found 2 front running types in the race and the top rated is one of them, there's not much I can say about most of the runners and I've obviously got very few jockey stats to work with so just the basics for this race. Firstly I will look to lay the top weight Zapper Cass who is better when racing over a shorter distance but still comes out 3rd best on my figures but if GIGI'S BEACH 12/1 (EW) sets the pace to this race it ought to prove hard to catch being my top rated and I will be backing it each way at the price and I might also have an each way wager on my 2nd top rated horse Capla Spirit if its a double figure price as is forecast in the early tissue prices. 

Gigi's Beach 14/1 7th -2pts 

Lay bet Zapper Cass +1pt

Total -1pt 

SOUTHWELL 2.50 

NIGHT NARCISSUS 11/4 this one will need to improve time wise to win this race and i had to go back to 2020 to find its best speed figure and maybe one to lay at the price. 

ORNATE is a possible pacesetter to this race and is top rated on just course and distance times on this new surface and 2nd top rated on Tapeta ratings from elsewhere 

MEDIA GUEST 10/1 hasn't any distance form to its name on the AW tracks and looks likely to need further to show its best form and one i will look to lay if it becomes a single figure price. AIRSHOW hasn't any form at this distance at any of the three courses which use the Tapeta surface so not sure what to expect but I will stick with the proven but wouldn't lay it either. 

BUNIANN is top rated using a speed figure from Newcastle last year but the stable hasn't been in good form for over a month now which is a bit off putting. 

ENDOWED would need to improve time wise to be winning this race and that's down to that it races as though a longer distance would suit it better. 

FINE WINE 9/2 is the other possible pacesetter but I'm not sure this surface is its best option and wont be allowed an easy lead and I will look to lay this one because of the surface. 

ARMY OF INDIA hasn't shown much in recent times and I think the price will reflect this outsiders chances of winning this race. 

CAHORS has only poor recent form and it will be a surprise if this one can win this race and I expect it to be a double figure price. 

SUMMARY: I will start with those that I will look to lay if of any value to do so, Night Narcissus 11/4 who hasn't shown much time wise since 2020, Media Guest who may need further and Fine Wine 9/2 who may be better on the Polytrack surface, Buniann could well have been one to back if the stable had been in good form but y money will be riding on ORNATE 14/1 in the hope that this one can get to the front and then repel any late challengers and it has already recorded whats beginning to look like a good speed figure on this newly laid Tapeta surface here so I will be having an each way wager at the price.

Ornate 14/1 7th -2pts 

Lay bet Night Narcissus +1pt 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day -2pts

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