1:20 Kempton Racing Tips (23rd January)

KEMPTON 1.20 

This a relatively poor class 6 sprint with 10 runners but no natural front running types amongst them, I cannot see anything that I think will be of value to lay and the picture for finding the winner isn't much clearer. I've got 3 horses all rated the same and one that's 3lbs lower on 2022 ratings but 5lbs higher using 2021 figures. Twentysharesofgrey 5/1 who can track the leaders or be held up recorded its best figure in 2021 at Chelmsford while its 2 course and distance runs here both resulted in it not registering on my figures as it was slow away on both occasions, Thomas Equnus 16/1 also recorded its best rating at Chelmsford but it was in 2022 and can also be held up or track the leaders. Lothian 8/1 recorded its best rating of 2022 over this course and distance but recorded an 8lb higher rating at Chelmsford in 2021. Admirable Lad 5/1 comes out in top spot on just course and distance ratings and it was recorded last year which probably puts it in pole position but Twnetysharesofgrey has by far the better trainer/jockey stats, maybe dutching all 4 is the answer or maybe leaving the race alone is best, the betting will be the final decider. 

WOLVERHAMPTON 4.20 

A class 6 dash for apprentice jockeys with 8 runners and half of them have been known to lead before and I think it will be won from the front. Prince Of Rome can lead but stall 8 isn't ideal although it is a versatile type but would need to improve time wise to win this race so maybe worth laying if of value to do so, Big Impact 13/2 will be trying to stay on at the finish but maybe too late to catch the leaders so maybe another potential lay. Rockley Point 14/1 a possible pacemaker is my 3rd top rated so could go well from stall 2 so maybe worth a small each way interest, Glorious Charmer could do best of those coming from off the pace so might be worth an each way punt but I will be hoping that YOU'RE COOL 8/1 can get to the front and then and then it should prove hard to catch. 

You're Cool 9/1 2nd -1pt 

Lay bets Big Impact +1pt 

Total 0pts

SOUTHWELL 5.10 

A class 5 dash with 10 runners and 3 known front running types and I think this race will most likely be won from the front. Indian Sounds and Phoenix Star may stay on too late to win this race and will be lays if a single figure price. Blazing Hot 5/2 won last time out catching the front running PEPPER STREAK 14/1 (EW) by a length but at the revised weights the form should be turned around and makes it my top rated on course and distance times while ORNATE 16/1 (EW) another possible pacesetter is my top rated using Tapeta ratings from elsewhere so i will be backing them both hoping that one of them can lead all the way here and maybe they can both make the frame and at the prices they have to be backed each way.

Ornate 16/1 6th -2pts 

Pepper Streak 16/1 8th -2pts 

Total -4pts

Total on the day -4pts

2:10 Southwell Racing Tips (29th August)

SOUTHWELL 2.10

An 11 runner race with 3 that have been known to lead before but 2 of them Glasstrees who might be outclassed and May Remain who would need to improve time wise,could struggle to hold on for the win, I'm not sure I can find anything of value to lay in this race, Street Life 4/1 could go well in this race but isn't an each way price and it might not be able to pick up the front running ORNATE 10/1 (EW) who could prove hard to catch if getting to the front and is dropped in class to run in this race but the trainer has had 53 runners since their last winner which doesn't inspire confidence but this looks the easiest task it has had for quite a while and could get back to winning ways here and i like the look of the jockey booking even though he has never ridden for the stable before and at the price on offer it has to be an each way bet. 

Ornate 10/1 9th -2pts 

Total -2pts 

SOUTHWELL 4.30 Div I

Thirteen runners with just Lancashire Life known as a front running type although I doubt it can lead all the way for the victory and hasn't been in good form lately plus this distance seems too short for it so maybe, if anything decided to lead, it wouldn't be fast enough to lead in this race, the 3yo Pokhara 5/1 is making its debut on an artificial surface and only has slow times over this distance on grass and might be worth laying as long as it doesn't drift before the off, another 3yo Summer Secrets could go well here if bouncing back to form as it hasn't been in good form lately and it was a slow pace it set last time out over 7 furlongs when finishing 2nd last time out, Glorious Charmer is my 3rd top rated and is closely rated with Independence Day on recent course and distance figures but i will be taking a punt on ARNOLD 5/1 who hasn't won on the AW in 12 runs although it has made the frame in 7 of those races, the trainer is 0-19 at this course over the last 5 years but the jockey is 1-4 when riding for the stable and is 1 from 1 with their older horses which is what I am hoping will be enough for it to get back to winning ways in this race.

Arnold 5/1 5th -1pt 

Total -1pt  

SOUTHWELL 5.05 Div II

The most likely looking pacesetter is Cool Spirit but hasn't shown anything much time wise on this surface so not for me, I will look to lay the top weight Marwari who can struggle to stay the distance if there's a fast early pace which could happen here with a few that like to track the leaders and therefore force to early pacesetters to go faster, Slate Cracker could be an improving 3yo but would need to improve a good few spots to win this race, Dylan's Lad finished 3rd last time out but it was a slow run affair but its best rating from 2021 would make it competitive and could make the frame, Twentysharesofgrey is my 2nd top rated using course and distance speed ratings so another that could may the frame but I will be backing BOMB SQUAD 7/1 who stays on strongly at the finish over this distance but is my top rated on course and distance ratings and has a positive looking jockey booking.

Bomb Squad 7/1 4th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day -4pts

1:50 Southwell Racing Tips (13th February)

SOUTHWELL 1.50   

An amateur jockeys race which always puts me on the back foot in betting terms as more things can go wrong compared to normal and I was going to give this race a miss but I found 2 front running types in the race and the top rated is one of them, there's not much I can say about most of the runners and I've obviously got very few jockey stats to work with so just the basics for this race. Firstly I will look to lay the top weight Zapper Cass who is better when racing over a shorter distance but still comes out 3rd best on my figures but if GIGI'S BEACH 12/1 (EW) sets the pace to this race it ought to prove hard to catch being my top rated and I will be backing it each way at the price and I might also have an each way wager on my 2nd top rated horse Capla Spirit if its a double figure price as is forecast in the early tissue prices. 

Gigi's Beach 14/1 7th -2pts 

Lay bet Zapper Cass +1pt

Total -1pt 

SOUTHWELL 2.50 

NIGHT NARCISSUS 11/4 this one will need to improve time wise to win this race and i had to go back to 2020 to find its best speed figure and maybe one to lay at the price. 

ORNATE is a possible pacesetter to this race and is top rated on just course and distance times on this new surface and 2nd top rated on Tapeta ratings from elsewhere 

MEDIA GUEST 10/1 hasn't any distance form to its name on the AW tracks and looks likely to need further to show its best form and one i will look to lay if it becomes a single figure price. AIRSHOW hasn't any form at this distance at any of the three courses which use the Tapeta surface so not sure what to expect but I will stick with the proven but wouldn't lay it either. 

BUNIANN is top rated using a speed figure from Newcastle last year but the stable hasn't been in good form for over a month now which is a bit off putting. 

ENDOWED would need to improve time wise to be winning this race and that's down to that it races as though a longer distance would suit it better. 

FINE WINE 9/2 is the other possible pacesetter but I'm not sure this surface is its best option and wont be allowed an easy lead and I will look to lay this one because of the surface. 

ARMY OF INDIA hasn't shown much in recent times and I think the price will reflect this outsiders chances of winning this race. 

CAHORS has only poor recent form and it will be a surprise if this one can win this race and I expect it to be a double figure price. 

SUMMARY: I will start with those that I will look to lay if of any value to do so, Night Narcissus 11/4 who hasn't shown much time wise since 2020, Media Guest who may need further and Fine Wine 9/2 who may be better on the Polytrack surface, Buniann could well have been one to back if the stable had been in good form but y money will be riding on ORNATE 14/1 in the hope that this one can get to the front and then repel any late challengers and it has already recorded whats beginning to look like a good speed figure on this newly laid Tapeta surface here so I will be having an each way wager at the price.

Ornate 14/1 7th -2pts 

Lay bet Night Narcissus +1pt 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day -2pts

2:30 Lingfield Racing Tips (25th January)

LINGFIELD 2.30 

A field of 9 with only Winnetka known to front run but as its only 5th top on my overall figures I doubt it can stay ahead to the finishing line, I will look to lay Knockout Blow 7/1 if its a single figure price at the off as this one can struggle to stay the distance in a true run race even though it is my 4th top rated , there is only 1lb between my 4th to 2nd top rated horses, Pueblo Del Pueblo is my joint 2nd top rated who has been in decent form but the jockey taking the ride for this race is 1-46 for the stable so maybe this race isn't their target, SEPRANI 11/2 is the other joint 2nd top rated and the jockey booking on this one looks significant as the apprentice has a 33% win ratio for the stable, VINCENZO COCCOTTI 8/1 comes out in top spot but hasn't been in form lately but is capable of winning without prior warning so I will be backing them both. 

Vincenzo Coccotti 20/1 6th -1pt

Seprani 12/1 7th -1pt 

Total -2pts

LINGFIELD 3.00 

Another 9 runner race but this time there's 3 horses that have been known to lead before, I will look to lay Campachoochoo 6/1 who won a slow run race at Chelmsford and another slow run affair when 3rd over this c/d so may have been flattered by those results, the versatile racing tactically horse Hurricane Alert has been out of form for quite awhile now and I think will be an outsider, Lorna Cole 4/1 will be trying to stay on at the finish and being my 3rd top rated it could make the frame but isn't an each way price, the old-timer Captain Ryan comes out 2nd best on my figures and is another that will be trying to stay on at the finish if its runs to its best it could make the frame but i will be hoping that THEGREYVTRAIN 6/4 will lead from start to finish it has been knocking on the door lately and has been found an opportunity to get back to winning ways in this race as the price shows, I was expecting or maybe hoping for a bigger price but its best rating is 11lb higher than the second top rated but at this level consistency isn't guaranteed. 

Thegreyvtrain 13/8 1st +1.625 + F/C £55.66 + TRI £202.50

Total +1.625pts

SOUTHWELL 7.30 

This time an eight runner race but now there isn't any known front running types in the race as River Tweed is a non-runner, Tyger Bay 7/2 hasn't any form on this surface and will need to improve for the switch and might be worth taking on with a lay bet then add One Hart 9/1 to my lay list, as long as they are single figure prices at the off, as this might prefer further and hasn't been in good form lately, in 3rd top spot I've got Mutabaahy but its another horse that hasn't been in good form in its latest runs, the top weight TRIGGERED 5/1 has been slowly returning to form finishing 4th and then 3rd in its last 2 runs is my top rated using a time from 2020 it is also my top rated on just times recorded here at Southwell since the change of surface, the trainer is 0-25 in the last 2 weeks which doesn't inspire confidence so I cannot make it my sole bet and will also be backing ROYAL ADVICE 10/1 (EW) who is my 2nd top rated and this ones speed figure was recorded 2021 at Newcastle I am hoping this one will be an each way price as long as all eight take part. 

Triggered 5/1 4th -1pt 

Royal Advice 16/1 8th -2pts 

Lay bets Tyger Bay +1pt, One Heart +1pt

Total -1pt 

SOUTHWELL 8.00 

We move up to 12 runners for the final sprint of the day with 3 known front runners amongst them, Maple Jack 8/1 may need this run for fitness so one I will lay if its a single figure price at the off, there are confusing form lines and speed figures trying to work out the ratios with this newly laid surface and the 2 other tracks with the Tapeta surface, Vandad is actually my top rated if I use its best rating from Lingfield but this is its debut on this surface so how it will fare I have no idea but I will as usual stick with the proven and the betting will give me a clue about this ones chances, I will be backing 2 in this race firstly the front running ORNATE 8/1 who has the fastest time for just this course with the newly laid surface and could possibly turn the form around with Ooh Is It who beat it by half a length, my second bet will be on PHOENIX STAR 16/1 (EW) who likes to track the leaders and then stay on strongly at the finish and might be the one to prosper if they go off too fast in the early stages and fade nearing the finish and also has good trainer/jockey stats and at the price has to be backed each way.

Phoenix Star 16/1 3rd +2.2pts

Ornate 8/1 4th -1pt 

Total +1.2pts

Total on the day -0.175

3:28 Southwell Racing Tips (1st January)

SOUTHWELL 3.28 

MUSCIKA 8/1 was unlucky on Thursday when finishing 3rd over 6 furlongs and this drop down in trip might not be a good move and i would look to lay it if it remains a single figure price.

MULZIM has only a slow time from its only previous course and distance run and has no winning form over this distance on this surface but is an outsider. 

PROP FORWARD hasn't run over this distance before and I am not convinced the drop down in distance will suit it and it might need the run after being off for 3 months so worth a lay at 3/1. 

DAVE DEXTER will I think be an outsider in this race and on its form on turf I am not sure this surface will suit it but I expect it to be an outsider. 

ONE NIGHT STAND hasn't any form over this distance apart from its last run over this course and distance and it will need to improve on that run and may be better over further. 

ORNATE is one of the possible pacesetters in this race and on just the recent course runs on this new surface it is my top rated so could go well from the front and might be worth an each way punt. 

HURAIZ usually likes to track the leaders but races as though further will suit it better and I would lay it if of any value which 13/2 is just about value. 

BE PROUD ran poorly here on its last run but has a rating from 2019 which would make it my top rated so could be worth an each way interest. 

RESTLESS ENDEAVOUR 10/1 this may not be its favoured surface and looks a better prospect when racing over a longer distance and one I will lay if a single figure price.

ROVANLEMI hasn't any form on this surface over this distance and looks a better horse when running over further and would be one to lay if of value to do so which 7/2 is. 

OOH IS IT has a time from Wolverhampton this year which would make this front running type my 2nd top rated and could go well enough to make the frame but is 7/1 an each way price.

REBEL REDEMPTION maybe outclassed now that it has been raised in class and also may need further to how its true worth. 

SUMMARY Both of the front runners could go well here and I will hopefully be having an each way punt on ORNATE 28/1 (EW) who is my top rated on this years surface form and over this new surface here and that was encouraging being its 1st run since August, top rated on overall figures is BE PROUD 25/1 (EW) who will need to spring back to form which it has done before without prior warning and will hopefully be another worth an each way punt as I think both are overpriced. 

Be Proud 25/1 6th -2pts

Ornate 28/1 8th -2pts 

Lay bets Prop Forward -2.75pts, Rovanlemi +1pt 

Total -5.75pts

SOUTHWELL 4.30 

THE THIN BLUE LINE hasn't any other form on this surface and over this distance and will need to improve time wise on its recent c/d run on this new surface so worth a small lay at 10/3. 

MOONRAKER 9/1 comes out 3rd best on just recent course and distance times but will be trying to stay on nearing the finish but may be better over further and one I would look to lay as long as it stays a single figure price. 

SON AND SANNIE 16/1 comes out 3rd top rated using times recorded on this surface but at the other 2 courses and could possibly make the frame. 

NOT NOW ZEB a possible pacemaker hasn't any surface form apart from its one run over this course and distance recently which resulted in a very slow time.

GRANDFATHER TOM is another possible pacesetter but would need to improve time wise to win this race and I doubt the race will be won from the front. 

GIORGIO VASARI is no wins or placed efforts from 6 previous runs on an artificial surface and may prefer a longer trip and has been in poor form in latest runs. 

HIGHEST AMBITION comes out top rated on just recent speed figures but only just and 4th top on this surface but elsewhere so could go well. 

IMPRESSOR 14/1 my 2nd top rated on just this months c/d speed figures and usually races in midfield and could do enough to at least make the frame. 

STRONG POWER 12/1 comes out 2nd top on recent times on the Tapeta surface this ones from Wolverhampton and could possibly make the frame. 

PORTELET BAY would need to improve time wise to win this race and it races as though a longer distance would be better for it.

BERT KIBBER could possibly be the one to set the pace to this race but I doubt it will do enough to hold on for the win and a value lay at 5/1. 

JUMIRA BRIDGE is my top rated on ratings recorded at bot Wolverhampton and Newcastle but has been off form on recent runs but can spring back to form without warning. 

HELMORA has only got poor form to its name and i expect it will be one of the outsiders in this race.

ORIENTAL LILLY may be outclassed in class 5 races and it may also need further so one to lay if of value to do so. 

SUMMARY: I will be backing two horses in this race, firstly HIGHEST AMBITION 7/1 who has done the best rating of those that have races here since they laid the new Tapeta surface and the trainer has a good strike rate at this course and could go one better than when finishing 2nd last time out, I will also be backing JUMIRA BRIDGE 50/1 who I tipped up the other day when it later became a non runner and if on a going day this one will be finishing fast nearing the finish and I cannot let it run without a bet at the price.

Highest Ambition 15/2 5th -1pt 

Jumira Bridge 66/1 Unp -1pt 

Lay bets Bert Kibbler -4pts, Thin Bue Line +1pt

Total -5pts

Total on the day  -10.75pts

Lay bets must be priced single figures at sp 

2:05 Lingfield Racing Tips (27th February)

LINGFIELD 2.05 

A 7 runner race with 3 known front runners amongst the entrants and my top 2 ratings are both pace-setting types, Blue De Vegas could do best of those coming from off the pace being my 3rd top rated while my 4th top rated is Lord Riddiford who is the other front running sort in the race, Royal Birth is my 2nd top rated and is coming out of stall 6 and may need a degree of luck to gain a clear run, my money will be riding on ORNATE 11/1 who likes to lead and from stall 2 it can either lead or at least contest the lead from the off and if getting to head of affairs could prove hard to catch. 

Ornate 11/1 4th -1pt

Total -1pt

CHELMSFORD 6.30 

This race is hard to analyse as usual because of the lack of known pace setters in the field, Kylla Looks might prefer further so this race might not be run to suit it, At Your Service will be trying to stay on at the finish as long as there is a good early pace but maybe not, Shecando is usually held up for a late run and has made the frame twice from just 3 previous c/d runs, I have only got 1lb between my two top rated beasts and I will be backing them both, EXCELLENT GEORGE 3/1 is 2nd top rated and can be held up or track the leaders which are also the tactics usually deployed by SEPAHI 11/1 who comes out top rated on my figures and it could come down to which one gets a clear run when required. 

Excellent George 8/1 3rd -1pt 

Sepahi 20/1 9th -1pt 

Total -2pts 

CHELMSFORD 7.00 

A field of 8 for my final sprint of the day, they are all either 3yo’s or lightly raced 4yo’s so my stakes in this raced will not be at full strength, Lua De Mel is one of 2 known front running sorts in the race and is my 3rd top rated using a time from Lingfield in 2020, the other one that could set the pace is Portugueseprincess and this one is my 2nd top rated and it acquired that rating on its sole previous run over this c/d but could improve somewhat if allowed an easy time of things at the front of the race but my money will be riding on COME ON GIRL 15/2 who recorded a fast time in 2020 from only 2 runs over this c/d and a repeat of that time would see it winning cosily but with so many lightly raced sorts any of them could have improvement still to come.

Come On Girl 15/2 3rd -1pt 

Total on the day -4pts

1:45 Lingfield Racing Tips (12th January)

LINGFIELD 1.45 

A field of ten with three known to lead and two of them have the stall one and two draw so the race could evolve around them, I will look to lay (Hey Ho Lets Go 4/1) who races as though further will suit it better and I don't think it will catch the leaders but could possibly run into a place but i doubt it will be an each way price, anything else I don't fancy I think will be double figure prices so of no value, A Go Go is a possible pacesetter but stall ten isn't ideal and its only joint 5th top on my figures along with Something Lucky, the top weight Saaheq is my 3rd top rated and with the apprentices seven pound claim it moves to top spot but the apprentices no wins from two attempts for the stable puts me off a little, Smokey is joint top rated but stall nine isn't going to help its cause and it has been beaten on both of its previous course and distance runs, my money will be riding on SPUROFTHEMOMENT 9/2 who is a front running type and has the plum draw in stall one and has been found the ideal opportunity to follow up on its win from last time it ran. 

Spurofthemoment 9/2 3rd (-1pt)

Lay bet: Hey Ho Let's Go +1pt

Total: 0pts

NEWCASTLE 4.30 

Just 7 runners and only Mythmaker known as a front runner but this one is only 5th top rated on my figures but could do better with an uncontested early lead, I will look to lay (Spartan Fighter 5/1 has had 2 previous c/d runs but not made the frame in either) I've got just 1lb between my top 3 horses, Be Proud moves to top spot thanks to its jockeys 5lb claim but the jockey only has a 7% win ratio for the stable, Glasvegas also moves to joint top spot this time thanks to its apprentices 3lb claim but this ones time came from Wolverhampton in 2020 but is 0-5 on its AW races, my money will be riding on VENTURA LIGHTNING 11/1 who is only 1lb off top spot and its time was recorded on its only previous run over this c/d last year and this is a drop in class. 

Ventura Lightning 11/1 1st (+11pts) (Betfair SP 12.93)

Lay bet: Spartan Fighter +1pt

Total: +12pts

WOLVERHAMPTON 5.00

Again only 7 runners with 2 known front runners and another that has led but only if nothing else wants to, on my speed figures Royal Birth looks as though it might get outpaced and therefore should be a lay but it has a good jockey booking making me think connections are expecting a big run, Lomu comes out 2nd best on my figures but the jockeys 0-5 record for the stable is a little off-putting, the bottom weight VENTUROUS 5/2 is another with good jockey stats who is well in on official handicap ratings and could do best of those coming from off the pace, I will also be backing ORNATE 11/2 who is a front running sort and if getting to the front could prove hard to catch, so I will back them both to cover the angles.

Venturous 5/2 1st (+2.5pts) + F/C £26.01 (Betfair SP 3.22)

Ornate 11/1 2nd (-1pts) 

Total: +1.5pts

Total on the day: +13.5pts