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Tuesday, 22 February 2022

3:10 Newcastle Racing Tips (23rd February)

NEWCASTLE 3.10 

NIGEL NOTT has a good rating from Chelmsford which would make it my 3rd top rated but doesn't seem to like this surface as much and I will look to lay it. 

*STRONG POWER has quite poor trainer/jockey stats and may be better over a longer distance so another I will look to lay.

LOOK OUT LOUIS has good trainer stats and the jockey stats are good but the jockey has only had 2 rides for the stable and another I think might need further and could be a lay.

SPOOF again has good jockey stats but there's only 4 races to work with it should be staying on at the finish but maybe too late but maybe not one to risk with a lay bet.

SECRETINTHEPARK who has good jockey stats is the only known front running type in the race and a repeat of a c/d win last year would see it hold on for the win. 

BE PROUD comes out 2nd best on my figures and has good jockey stats and could be the one for the forecast. 

SUMMARY: Four of the runners have good trainer and/or jockey stats but they cant all be
right, I'm not sure which ones I will lay if any so I will be hoping that SECRETINTHEPARK 5/1 who is the only “known” front runner in the race can lead from start to finish and hold on for the win. 

*NR

Secretinthepark 6/1 4th -1pt 

Lay bets Look Out Louis +1pt

Total 0pts

KEMPTON  7.00 

JUAN LES PINS hasn't shown much time wise since 2020 on this surface but has a rating from Newcastle which would make it my 3rd top rated on overall figures so could make the frame. 

BOWLING RUSSIAN has been out of form lately has had one run since taking a 3 month break and if back to form it could lead all the way.

KONDRATIEV WAVE comes out 5th best on my figures so could make the frame if others falter, has stall 1 which is a bonus for this front running type. 

DURDLE DOOR the 3rd of the 4 known front running style horses in this race although it doesn't have to lead but stall 9 isn't ideal. 

EQUITATION will be trying to stay on nearing the finish but maybe too late and may be better over further.

ENDURING the last of those known to lead but time wise this one has a good few spots to make up and might not catch the leaders in time for the win. 

TYGER BAY this ones best rating from both 2021 and 2020 would leave it a bit short of whats required to win this race and may not pick up the leaders in time. 

ET TU BRUTE hasn't shown much worthwhile and I expect it will be one of the outsiders in this race. 

SEAS OF ELZAAM hasn't been in the best of form lately and its best rating from 2020 would still leave it outside my top 5 ratings. 

SIR GREGORY won the time before last over this course and distance but that was a relatively slow run race and might get outpaced early doors in this race.

CLASHANISKA has poor trainer, 1-77 stats but has a time from 2021 which puts it in 2nd top spot on my figures and I'm not sure this course suits it 

SUMMARY: There should be a decent early pace to this race, I might look to lay Enduring who likes to set its own slower early pace which I doubt it will be allowed to do in this race, while Equitation may need further to show its best and I could well add Sir Gregory to that list, Clashanishka, Durdle Door, Juan Les Pins and Kondratiev Wave all have pieces of form and ratings that could see them make the frame here but I will be taking a punt on hopefully an outsider by having an each way punt on BOWLING RUSSIAN 16/1 (EW) who is my top rated using a Lingfield rating it produced in 2020 and its best from 2021 wasn't too far adrift of that rating and if getting to the front it could prove hard to catch and the each way bet for insurance in case it fades nearing the finish.

Bowling Russian 28/1 8th -2pts 

Lay bet Enduring +1pt 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day -1pt

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