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Wednesday, 23 February 2022

3:12 Southwell Racing Tips (24th February)

SOUTHWELL 3.12 

Only 7 runners so maybe no each way bets, I will look to lay Broken Spear 8/1 who may need further and this surface might not suit it, Patsy Fagan comes out 2nd top rated but that was recorded in lower class races so might not be able to repeat those ratings in this class of race but I'm not sure I could lay it, Global Warning 5/1 may set the pace to the race and being my 3rd top rated it could take some catching but I do have SHALLOW HAL 5/1 rated higher and this one usually likes to track the leaders and then stay on the stronger at the finish.

Shallow Hal 5/1 2nd -1pt 

Total -1pt 

SOUTHWELL 3.47 

There's 9 runners this time, I could look to lay Hey Mr 6/1 if its a single figure price as this isn't its favoured surface and Corinthia Knight who hasn't been in form lately and its last AW win was back in 2018, Mulzim 28/1 might be overpriced if the tissue prices are to be believed and could possibly make the frame, AIRSHOW 7/1 might have been my sole bet in this race as its my top rated using recent c/d ratings here but the trainers 1-27 win ratio at this course is a little bit off putting plus its been 9 runners and over a month since they last had a winner, NIGHT ON EARTH 4/1 comes out top rated using Tapeta times either at Newcastle or Wolverhampton and this one usually runs on well in the closing stages of the race. 

Airshow 7/1 2nd -1pt 
Night On Earth 7/1 5th -1pt 

Total -2pts

SOUTHWELL 4.22 

A class 6 stakes race where Papa's Girl 3/1 should win being the top rated on the official handicappers ratings but is only 4th top rated on recent c/d speed figures so maybe not of value to back, I was going to look to lay Arzaak 5/1 who seems better on the Polytrack but with no known front runners in this race that might not matter too much but Gleaming Maize 8/1 may prefer further and this race might not be run to suit it so maybe worth laying if a single figure price, my money will be riding on BLUELLA 16/1 who usually stays on at the business end of a race and does look to be running into form and the stable is in good form at the present. 

Bluella 16/1 7th -1pt 

Lay bets Arzaak +1pt

Total 0pts 

NEWCASTLE 6.30 

A poor turnout of just 5 runners for this race where Alablaq might set the early pace and could be dangerous if allowed an easy lead as a longer trip might suit it better and is dropped in class to run at this level, I will look to lay Gowanlad 9/4 who might prefer a longer distance and this race might not be run to suit it plus its got poorish trainer stats with an 8% win ratio while the jockey is 2-31 and 0-18 on the stables older horses, my money will be riding on TATHMEEN 3/1 who usually tracks the leaders and then stays on strongly at the finish. 

Tathmeen 3/1 3rd -1pt 

Lay bet Gowanlad -2pts

Total -3pts

NEWCASTLE 8.00 

The pacesetter in this race is likely to e Joshua R and it could be dangerous if allowed to dominate and set its own slower early pace, Elzaal 15/2 comes out top rated but may need this run for fitness after a 136 days break, Amazing Amaya 9/2 could go well and make the frame but would need to improve a little time wise to win this race if others reproduce their previous best, I will be looking to back the top weight TANASOQ 7/1 who is a previous course and distance winner and the jockey has a 27% win ratio when riding for this stable, it should be staying on strongly in the closing stages of the race

Tanasoq 7/1 3rd -1pt 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day -7pts

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