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Monday, 21 February 2022

5:00 Southwell Racing Tips (22nd February)

SOUTHWELL 5.00 

EEH BAH GUM is one of two known front running types in this race but time wise it might struggle to stay there for the win but could possibly make the frame if reproducing its best time from 2019.

COOL SPIRIT isn't in my top 3 ratings on this surface from elsewhere but on just course and distance speed figures its my top rated so has to have a chance of winning this race.

BRANDY STATION hasn't really shown much time wise since 2020 but its recent time here gives it an each way chance. 

ACES has been in poor form in its 2 races this year and usually runs on at this distance and looks a better prospect when racing over a longer distance I doubt it will be of value to lay. 

SAN JUAN doesn't make my top four on my speed figures, it seems to like this course but this is its first run since the surface has been changed but maybe one to lay. 

LOUISE TREIZE this horse has good trainer/jockey stats but speed figure wise it needs to improve, its 5th top using other Tapeta tracks and 3rd top on recent c/d speed figures, it races as though further would suit it better but with good stats I'm not sure if I dare lay it unless its a short priced favourite which it might be after winning last time out. 

GOSSIP has only poor recent form to its name and I expect it will be an outsider and this race and a big turn-up if it can win this race. 

LORNA COLE if i use this ones best time from Wolverhampton last year it comes out top rated but hasn't run here since the change of surface but has to be on my shortlist.

XAMPACHOOCHOO another one with poor recent form and will be a shock if it can win this race and I expect it will be an outsider. 

MOVEONUP is the other known front running type in this race and is 2nd top rated on recent course and distance ratings but only 4th on Tapeta ratings from the other 2 courses.

CHARLEMAINE another that I expect will be an outsider and a big shock if it managed to win the race. 

SUMMARY: My betting in this race will revolve around Louis Treize who is 3rd and 5th on my 2 speed figure ratings, c/d ratings and overall ratings, and is forecast to be the 9/4 favourite and that price I would be prepared to take the risk and lay it BUT it won last time out and they may have found the key to success for this horse and the good trainer/jockey stats also put me off a bit about laying it, as for the winner I will be looking at 2 horses, COOL SPIRIT 8/1 who is my top rated on c/d times and I like the jockey booking and LORNA COLE 11/2 who is top rated on Tapeta ratings from the other 2 courses and who also has good trainer/jockey stats.

Cool Spirit 8/1 3rd -1pt 
Lorna Cole 10/1 5th -1pt 

Lay bets San Juan +1pt

Total -1pt  

SOUTHWELL 6.00 

This is a race where my ratings become complicated because the pair at the bottom of the handicap have recorded good speed figures enough to be my top and 3rd top rated and both of them are upped in class to run in this race, Lihou would normally have been one that I backed but this horse seems to be slipping down the handicap and its form from a couple of years ago would be plenty to win this race, I've also got negatives against three more of the runners which leaves me with CAROLINE DALE 7/1 who won in this class 2 runs ago when leading all the way but missed the kick in its last race and never got involved, if leading here it has a decent chance of getting back to winning ways.

Caroline Dale 7/1 5th -1pt 

Total -1pt 

Total on the day -2pts

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