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Thursday, 24 February 2022

4:45 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (25th February)

WOLVERHAMPTON 4.45 Div I 

This is a poor apprentice jockeys handicap for horses rated 55 and below, I did my analysis on this race and wasn't sure if I was going to have a bet or not, I had marked Okaldi as a possible lay if of value to do so, as its not been in good form and may be better over further, I only have 3 horses with a recorded speed figure rating, Peachey Carnehan 3/1 who might set the pace to the race and is my 3rd top rated but only 1lb behind Royal Heart who sits in 2nd top spot but my top rated is KNOCKABOUT QUEEN 10/1 out of the Michael Harrington stable and is usually held up for a late run, I was originally going to back this one along with Peachey Carnehan who might get an easy lead and then prove hard to catch and I might still have a covering bet on the front running 3rd top rated just in case it does get a soft lead and holds on for the win. 

Knockabout Queen 22/1 9th -1pt 

Lay bet Okaldi +1pt

Total 0pt 

WOLVERHAMPTON 5.15 Div II 

This 2nd division isn't any better but according to the early tissue prices Twentysharesofgrey 11/8 is forecast to be the 6/4 favourite I'm not sure if this horse either needs a longer distance or if this surface isn't its favoured one but has won over this course over a longer distance so it might be the former, and I think it might have been flattered when winning last time out at Southwell in a relatively slow run race where it was able to track the leaders but I think the early pace might be a bit quicker in this race which will perhaps see it staying on at the finish but maybe too late for the win but in its defense this race wont take much winning but at the price I think its worth laying. My top rated is Barrington 7/2 who is also still a maiden after 29 previous AW races but is the only known front running type in the field so could go well and the trainer has a 17% win ratio in apprentice jockey races, GLORIOUS CHARMER 4/1 is my 2nd top rated but hasn't won on the AW from 21 previous attempts but this one is also trained by Michael Harrington who has a 20% win ratio in apprentice jockey races, I think the stable has set out to win this race and now it is split into 2 divisions will the trainer have one winner or win both divisions, i will certainly back both of the Michael Harrington horses expecting at least one of them to win but also have a covering bet on the 2 I think will lead in each division of the race. PS this is a race for apprentice jockeys who can carry their whips but are not allowed to use them which makes these races even harder to analyse properly, I do keep a fair amount of data about individual horses but I haven't got a clue which horses will run to their best without the use of the whip so any stakes have to be kept fairly low and I guess they might be races to leave alone, that's up to you.

Glorious Charmer 5/1 1st +5pts

Lay bet Twentysharesofgrey +1pt 

Total +6pt

Total on the day 6pts

Lay bets must be priced in single figures at SP or no bet  

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