4:45 Wolverhampton Racing Tips (25th February)

WOLVERHAMPTON 4.45 Div I 

This is a poor apprentice jockeys handicap for horses rated 55 and below, I did my analysis on this race and wasn't sure if I was going to have a bet or not, I had marked Okaldi as a possible lay if of value to do so, as its not been in good form and may be better over further, I only have 3 horses with a recorded speed figure rating, Peachey Carnehan 3/1 who might set the pace to the race and is my 3rd top rated but only 1lb behind Royal Heart who sits in 2nd top spot but my top rated is KNOCKABOUT QUEEN 10/1 out of the Michael Harrington stable and is usually held up for a late run, I was originally going to back this one along with Peachey Carnehan who might get an easy lead and then prove hard to catch and I might still have a covering bet on the front running 3rd top rated just in case it does get a soft lead and holds on for the win. 

Knockabout Queen 22/1 9th -1pt 

Lay bet Okaldi +1pt

Total 0pt 

WOLVERHAMPTON 5.15 Div II 

This 2nd division isn't any better but according to the early tissue prices Twentysharesofgrey 11/8 is forecast to be the 6/4 favourite I'm not sure if this horse either needs a longer distance or if this surface isn't its favoured one but has won over this course over a longer distance so it might be the former, and I think it might have been flattered when winning last time out at Southwell in a relatively slow run race where it was able to track the leaders but I think the early pace might be a bit quicker in this race which will perhaps see it staying on at the finish but maybe too late for the win but in its defense this race wont take much winning but at the price I think its worth laying. My top rated is Barrington 7/2 who is also still a maiden after 29 previous AW races but is the only known front running type in the field so could go well and the trainer has a 17% win ratio in apprentice jockey races, GLORIOUS CHARMER 4/1 is my 2nd top rated but hasn't won on the AW from 21 previous attempts but this one is also trained by Michael Harrington who has a 20% win ratio in apprentice jockey races, I think the stable has set out to win this race and now it is split into 2 divisions will the trainer have one winner or win both divisions, i will certainly back both of the Michael Harrington horses expecting at least one of them to win but also have a covering bet on the 2 I think will lead in each division of the race. PS this is a race for apprentice jockeys who can carry their whips but are not allowed to use them which makes these races even harder to analyse properly, I do keep a fair amount of data about individual horses but I haven't got a clue which horses will run to their best without the use of the whip so any stakes have to be kept fairly low and I guess they might be races to leave alone, that's up to you.

Glorious Charmer 5/1 1st +5pts

Lay bet Twentysharesofgrey +1pt 

Total +6pt

Total on the day 6pts

Lay bets must be priced in single figures at SP or no bet  

2:25 Southwell Racing Tips (27th Jauary)

SOUTHWELL 2.25 

I will look to lay Digital 12/1 if its value to do so because it struggles to stay this distance in a true run race, Tommy De Vito 3/1 will need to improve time wise on its Newcastle rating to win this race but when a horse wins it can bring about improvement so I cant put it up as a lay, Shallow Hal would have every chance if able to reproduce its best 2020 rating but hasn't been quite up to that level since then, MOHAREB 13/2 has the best rating on just recent c/d speed figures and being the only known front runner in the race it could go very well from the front and will be carrying some of my money but I will also be backing *ASTRO JAKK 12/1 who is a very close 2nd on recent c/d speed figures and comes out in top spot on figures from Newcastle and Wolverhampton and this one has good trainer/jockey stats. 

*NR

Mohareb 13/2 9th -1pts

Lay bet Digital +1pt, Tommy De Vito -2.75

Total -2.75pts

SOUTHWELL 2.55 

This race is hard to back down to a conclusion, Eye Of The Tiger 11/2 hasn't been in good form recently and one I will look to lay, *Decision Maker 10/1 may need this run for fitness so may be worth taking on with a lay bet, Inclement Weather 4/1 has a chance on my speed figures but the trainer is 0-3 at this course and the jockey is 0-24 for the stable so another one to consider laying, I will be covering the angles with 2 bets, TOPTIME 3/1 is one of 2 known front runners in this race it has good trainer/jockey stats and just top rated on c/d times on this new surface, the other bet is going to be on STORM OVER 20/1 also has good jockey stats but the trainer hasn't had a winner for the last 77 days but has the plum stall 1 draw and could go best of those coming from off the pace. 

*NR

Toptime 4/1 4th -1pt 

Storm Over 22/1 6th 1pt 

Lay bets Inclement Weather +1pt, Eye Of The Water +1pt

Total 0pts

SOUTHWELL 3.25 

This is a poor race with 3 known front 'runners and of that trio I will be hoping that JEANS MAITE 8/1 can do best and is 2nd top on just recent c/d times and it is only a fraction slower than GLORIOUS CHARMER 6/1 so it could be very close between the pair of them I have to add into the mix BLUELLA 16/1 who comes out top on Tapeta speed figures but from the other two courses, the trainer does quite well here but hasn't had a winner in 43 days from 20 runners, I'm not sure there is anything of value to lay and my stakes will be kept low in a race which wont take much winning. 

Jean's Maite 8/1 1st +8pts

Bluella  66/1 5th -1pt 

Glorious Charmer 8/1 7th -1pt 

Total +6pts

NEWCASTLE 6.30 

The early pace to this race could well be set by Barrington but I doubt it will be good enough for it to win but being my 4th top rated it could make the frame so maybe worth an each way bet if of value, I would look to lay Mrs Bagerran 13/2, Clear Angel 8/1 and Perfect Soldier 15/2 if they are single figure prices nearing the off, I will be splitting my bet between TELL’EM NOWT 4/1 and BERYL THE PERIL 7/2 the former will be trying to stay on at the finish as it races as though a longer trip might suit it better but has recorded what looks to be a decent speed figure on this new surface, the latter will be tracking the leaders and then stays on strongly at the finish and has good trainer/jockey stats. 

Tell'em Nowt 4/1 1st +4pts

Beryl The Peril 7/2 4th -1pt 

Lay bets Mrs Bagerran +1pt, Clear Angel +1pt

Total +5pts 

NEWCASTLE 7.00 

Only 7 runners but no obvious front runner in the field so maybe best to keep stakes low, both Porfin and Portelet Bay need to improve time wise and they both may need further to show their true merits, Blazing Hot won over c/d distance last time out but it wasn't a fast run race so maybe that result has flattered it and might be worth risking with a lay if its a short price, Tanasoq is 2nd top on my figures and will be trying to stay on at the finish but my money will be riding on TATHMEEN 5/1 who would this race if it reproduced its best 2021 speed figure and had an even better rating from 2020 which would see it winning this race a shade cosily.

Tathmeen 5/1 7th -1pt 

Lay bet Blazing Hot -2.5pts 

Total -3.5pts

Total on the day +4.75pts

4:20 Southwell Racing Tips (11th January)

SOUTHWELL 4.20 

I am never quite sure what to make of these apprentice races where they carry whips but are not allowed to use them, if you are cleverer than me you perhaps know the answer to this question: Which horses respond to a jockey's urging without the use of the whip because I am certain some horses do not and will not give their all without a reminder or two from the whip so in all reality these races should be left alone but I might have found a nugget or two for this race. It is fairly close at the top of my speed figures and You're Cool, Brandy Station and The Tron could go well but the three of those trainers have not had a winner in the last 2 weeks which is a bit off-putting. The early pace could be set by Jean's Maite and/or May The Sixth but both sit just outside my top five ratings so could be worth laying during the race if they are in front. While Papa's Girl is 2nd top on just course and distance times since the new surface was laid but I do have MISS SEAFIRE 12/1 (EW) rated just a little bit higher and the 5lbs the apprentice claims could be the deciding factor although he is 0-3 for the stable but that isn't enough data to make it a reliable fact but the trainer does have a 22% win ratio at this course and 3-18 record in apprentice races so at the price I will go with an each way bet, my top rated on this surface, but at either Newcastle or Wolverhampton, is GLORIOUS CHARMER 13/2 and this ones trainer has a 3-14 win ratio in apprentice races, I will be backing them both but I cannot be betting too heavily in a low class apprentice race on a newly laid surface, so one win bet and one each way is the way I will be going in this race along with a lay on Gossip 8/1 if it stays a single figure price.

Miss Seafire 20/1 2nd +4pts 

Glorious Charmer 9/1 6th -1pt

Total +3pts 

SOUTHWELL 7.50 

The lack of early pace in this race could be a problem but I will be both laying and backing in this race, I will be looking to lay *Starter For Ten 11/4 who won last time out but that speed figure is only good enough for 4th top spot and is therefore poor value, so it only takes one of my top 3 to run to their best then it cannot win and as its forecast to be the favourite it would be of poor value to back, I will also look to lay Toptime 13/2 who won at Kempton but that also was a slow run race so both of them might have been flattered. Ginato is actually my 2nd top rated but it has poor trainer/jockey stats and the stable hasn't had a winner for over two months which puts me off its chances and stall 12 could be the deciding factor on why I will not be backing this runner, DEEVIOUS BEAU 8/1 is my 3rd top rated and the trainer is 3-6 for the last two weeks, so is in good form, the trainer also has a good 21% strike-rate at this course and the jockey has a 22% win ratio for the stable so has to carry some of my money but I do have STORM OVER 33/1 (EW) rated higher and if it had been in good form it might have been my sole selection but it can spring back to form without warning so I cannot let it run without some of my money riding on it each way especially at such a big price.

*NR

Storm Over 33/1 9th -2pts 

Deevious Beau 8/1 Unp -1pt

Total -3pts

Total on the day 0pts

Lay bets must be single figure odds at sp